Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Looks like a tumur
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
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Quoting scottsvb:
There is no surface reflection @ the surface being reported by ship,bouy or latest satelite pass...there is a weak low over Central Nicaragua @ this time along with the BASE of the upper trough that streches NE into the bahamas. This weak low will migrate over the next few days NE and be south of Jamaica later Thurs into Friday. We may in a few days have something..but in the next 36-60hrs..nothing more than the upper trough causing large areas of Thunderstorms moving in the mid-levels.


When I look at surface observations, I use the NowCOAST Web-Mapping and Satellite Server since they have accurate and constantly updated data and imagery. Thats where I got the observations that indicated an east wind on the north and a west wind on the south which would be indicative of some surface reflection occuring. Not only that, but when you look very closely at daytime visible/nighttime IR satellite loops (I use Tropical RAMSDIS for this), you can see the low-level clouds starting to get drawn northward into the disturbance. All this indicates to me at least that we're starting to see something happening at the surface.

Now, even with this happening, I do agree that it will still take sometime before we get anything substantial, but this all does indicate that this disturbance may be trying to get organized.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
813. ackee
the blob took me by surprise things that do devlop in the SW carrb are like that
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1341


shortwave sat image
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
I think things are beginning to come together. This may be an interesting week. this blob is looking pretty healthy and it is right in the area where the gfs was forecasting development. Time will tell....
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91E looks good





and did i say bust too 91E??? ooops
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This setup folks is NO DIFFERENT than the blow-up of storms a couple weeks ago south of Hispaniola in the Carribean...
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Let's see what the poof looks like 12 hours from now!
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The Great POOF of 09' continues.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2229
alot of hypecasting going on in here...but this site usually brings it! LOL
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00Z GFS is running, up to 84hrs now. Showing a lot of precip at the edge of the image.

Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2229
800. 7544
local nes are calling this blob a system now
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
from nothing it comes
Second time you said that tonight and I am beginning to think you are right.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
There is no surface reflection @ the surface being reported by ship,bouy or latest satelite pass...there is a weak low over Central Nicaragua @ this time along with the BASE of the upper trough that streches NE into the bahamas. This weak low will migrate over the next few days NE and be south of Jamaica later Thurs into Friday. We may in a few days have something..but in the next 36-60hrs..nothing more than the upper trough causing large areas of Thunderstorms moving in the mid-levels.
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I am a rook..but this will not become a hurricane, a tropical storm, depression or an invest overnight.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Could be my vision deceiving me at this late hour, but in watching the visible/infrared loop from Tropical RAMSDIS, you can see inflow developing on the southern side as low-level clouds have been getting drawn into the disturbance. We will need to wait and see if this continues.
Satellite Loop - Watch Southern Side


If you're seeing things wrong so am I. I'm surprised at how impressive it looks, but I'm still waiting to see if this manages to last.
from nothing it comes
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
Quoting Acemmett90:
the blog would explolde if this became a hurricane overnight
always expect the un-expected
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Could be my vision deceiving me at this late hour, but in watching the visible/infrared loop from Tropical RAMSDIS, you can see inflow developing on the southern side as low-level clouds have been getting drawn into the disturbance. We will need to wait and see if this continues.
Satellite Loop - Watch Southern Side
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
Quoting Acemmett90:
the blog would explolde if this became a hurricane overnight
Hush your mouth please.
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I like going to sleep during times like this--the suspense ins incredulous.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
According to the latest surface observations via NowCOAST Satellite Web-Mapping, we may have a developing surface circulation with our Western Caribbean disturbance as there's been a west wind reported on the southern side and and an east wind reported on the northern side. For the first time, there may be evidence that some surface reflection may be developing.

Thanks for the "good" news. Just what I needed to hear right before I go to bed. Of course you know I am in the Cayman Islands so this will make for sweet dreams tonight. Just joking. Good to know there are some people on here that know what they are talking about and how to interpret what they see on the images. All I know is that it ain't looking good for me.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


I'm very sorry, because I know for a fact that you've been one of those bloggers on here which has looked out for me since the initial get-go of everything, and for that, I'll be forever grateful. Once again, I'm sorry Jeffrey.


It helps to tell the truth and establish credibility and not mislead. Just my take. L8R
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
dos any one have a good update on what the ENSO been doing has of late??
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
Even strong El Nino years produce devastating hurricanes. Hurricane Andrew is the prime example.
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blog is acting wierd tonight
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Quoting Tazmanian:
and if this where AUG and with EL Nino on the way tropical weather will be shut down by then
i don't count on that taz we are gonna get some storms maybe not many but we will get some
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274
According to the latest surface observations via NowCOAST Satellite Web-Mapping, we may have a developing surface circulation with our Western Caribbean disturbance as there's been a west wind reported on the southern side and and an east wind reported on the northern side. For the first time, there may be evidence that some surface reflection may be developing.

Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
Quoting Acemmett90:
Ahhh is anyone finding the blog to be slow
Very slow tonight
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repeated post...???
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---
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and if this where AUG and with EL Nino on the way tropical weather will be shut down by then
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52274

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.