Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
Looks interesting thats all I'm saying

PS: why are the letters or the webpage so big?

PSS: is anyone else havinng problems with the new IE8 browser? (just installed it)
you need to click on the compatability button next to the refresh button
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There is allot of dry air that it has to fight to the west...
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Any type of high winds in Fl will bring down trees because of the recent rains and soggy soil...
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Blob looks impressive..wudn't be surprised if to see TD-02 wenever i wake up in about 12 hours
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Looks interesting thats all I'm saying

PS: why are the letters or the webpage so big?

PSS: is anyone else havinng problems with the new IE8 browser? (just installed it)
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859. 7544
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
The blog won't freeze as much if you make your images smaller imo...


agree and please link the cimss this really freezes up the blog thanks

now back to the gfs run is over and still takes this blob to fla
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i don't hype cast pal been around along time my first was david in 79


never said you did dude!
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TFL i will resize to 640 by 480 also helps if one only posts single image instead of anmin.
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Quoting heliluv2trac:
how is it going to hit fla going nnw


A trough is forecast to pull the storm northeastward sometime late next week.
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Images have nothing to do with it...something up with the server
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11276
Keeper check your mail...
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whats up guys, watching the blob looks interesting
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I think I have seen enough blob pictures for one night, lol the GFS appears to have dropped the low on the 00z
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i don't hype cast pal been around along time my first was david in 79
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Quoting WeatherStudent:



link????????
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
The blog won't freeze as much if you make your images smaller imo...
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Blog killed the hypecasters!..Where are the smarter posters like Levi,hurricane23,TampaSpin and a few others..lol
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


I'm not banned from there, I've got an account, inactive however, but it's there. :)
Quoting WeatherStudent:


I'm not banned from there, I've got an account, inactive however, but it's there. :)



and what site would that be???
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842. ackee
seem like the blob has some sort of spin to me we see what will happen later good night
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1373
how is it going to hit fla going nnw
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It does look impressive...but look at all that dry air north of it.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11276


00Z GFS @ 102 hrs. System is just parked in the Carribean.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2343
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

scott
tropical developement is a science that warrants further and ongoing observation as it is not an exact science and requirers further study to predict accurate developement of these systems

so you know not all not even the experts


Who said I know all? I didnt.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Ha, well stated, WeatherMan. Now, try to grammatically rebutal that, FLHurricane.com dude?


Don't want to get into any confrontation or standing people up here. Just pointing out my observations and the evidence I used to make them. We're all here to give our opinions and to learn from each other. So please don't try and use my opinion to incite a possible confrontation since, as you probably know well from experience, it doesn't lead to good things here and can be more detrimental than beneficial.
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834. ackee
looking closeing on the blog we might be in for a lots of rain here in jamaica next couple of days
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1373

scott
tropical developement is a science that warrants further and ongoing observation as it is not an exact science and requirers further study to predict accurate developement of these systems

so you know not all not even the experts
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Quoting 7544:
the new gfs is strting now we might see a much diffent run then the last one stay tuned


lol, so far the 00Z GFS shows the system just sitting in place for 4 days.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2343
Fay..

Photobucket



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827. 7544
the new gfs is strting now we might see a much diffent run then the last one stay tuned
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Im glad they banned ya weatherstudent over there.. they dont take noobs! HA!
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Quoting scottsvb:
Everything you see is being enhanced by the trough....only a weak circulation exists and its over Nicaragua and not over the T-Storm mass!




Nothing to see here. There is no truth to the wishcasting propaganda that the BLOB has been upgraded to POOF status.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2343
If it looks this way at 8am tomorrow ill be impressed and reconsider its development. You cant have -80C tops over an area for so long without having some kind of surface reflection develop under it. We'll see what it does tonight. Its very odd how it developed convection at the near peak of the diurnal minimum....

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Everything you see is being enhanced by the trough....only a weak circulation exists and its over Nicaragua and not over the T-Storm mass!
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how is it going to hit florida going nnw
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Looks like a tumur
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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