Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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A "TUTT" is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough.


A TUTT low is a TUTT that has completely cut-off. TUTT lows are more commonly known in the Western Hemisphere as an "upper cold low". TUTTs are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. TUTTs are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones which may inhibit their strengthening. There are also suggestions that TUTTs can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere. For a more detailed discussion on TUTTs see the article by Fitzpatrick et al. (1995).



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 131147
?????? what anti what ? over the carribean huh?
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AOI expanding on ir still good strong convection in another hour and a half it will be 12 hrs with this blob
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I do want to mention that the GFS is still out to lunch. The TUTT over the western Caribbean won't clear out until 120 hours, and the GFS is being pretty silly to develop a low under it and move it north over Florida, weak or not. Development, if any, will occur 5-8 days from now when the upper anti-cyclone establishes itself over the western Caribbean.
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dude dont underestimate the carribean sea this fer south, i know there is shear and the other stuff but remember the sea temp is warm not just the surface , its been extremly hot for the past 2 months.
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Quoting Levi32:


Lol I know it's just funny how many MCCs we've been getting that hype people up.


lol I agree with that. I've seen people say nothing will happen, I saw a troll saying it'll be a category 2 hurricane. It probably won't be much but only one thing is a sure thing here. Someone's going to be enjoying a nice dinner of roast crow and no one knows who it'll be.
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Quoting Makoto1:


lol Seriously, most of us know it probably won't last, but there's really nothing better to watch. It is early June after all.


Lol I know it's just funny how many MCCs we've been getting that hype people up.
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Awaiting the 2 AM TWO from the NHC, though I highly doubt that anything will change.
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Quoting Levi32:
Hello all. I see there's a lot of blob-watching going on. Surely you guys know by now that these things fade...lol


I been trying to tell them for a few hours in here Levi..but do they listen? LOL anyways going to bed.. Ill let you handle this!
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Quoting Levi32:
Hello all. I see there's a lot of blob-watching going on. Surely you guys know by now that these things fade...lol


lol Seriously, most of us know it probably won't last, but there's really nothing better to watch. It is early June after all.
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Hello all. I see there's a lot of blob-watching going on. Surely you guys know by now that these things fade...lol
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Quoting sky1989:


It's merely a blob; the convection will probably all but dissipate within a few hours.

and dry air continues to pour into the gulf....
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Does that(a floater) usually mean an invest is imminent?
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NHC has positioned a floater over the blob hmmmm
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


WOW, I didn't know that you were a Meteorologist, that puts you in an entirely different league than everyone else in here, including moi as well. My respects to you. Therefore, let ask you this following question, Mr. Meteorologist, alright, what do you think the potential future prospects of this blob might be?


I just told ya.. where to look in a few days.. This blob? Its exactly what I said earlier also and Drakeon just told ya.. It will fade by mid-morning and maybe refire tomorrow night.
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I was just referring to its superficial appearance on satellite, I realize it is neither an "Andrew", nor even an invest(?). Will be interesting to watch though.
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901. 7544
our blob doesnt seem to be moving but growing larger hmmmm

Link
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No indeed..no one wants calamity,in their right mind that is.
Been nuff of that the past 3-4 years.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 131147
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Slap an eye in the middle of this thing and it could look like hurricane Andrew shortly before landfall. This is one of the more impressive "blobs" I ever remember seeing.


It's merely a blob; the convection will probably all but dissipate within a few hours.
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Quoting Patrap:
Andrew?,,..........get a lil grip on reality sport.

An Area of Interest,..isnt a Cat-5
exactly patrap i certainly dont wish for anything in this part of the woods
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Quoting StormW:


Actually, it should keep waxing and waning...the diffluent flow aloft is aiding in the divergence (posted earlier). The longer the divergence aloft sticks over that area, the bettter chance at seeing a possible surface reflection of the feature...not to mention that an upward motion pulse of the MJO is currently over the "blob"
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Dont get me wrong...as a Meteorologist...I want to see a Tropical System develop...its my passion also.... but I learned alot in school on all the dynamics that take place. I just also dont see that in the near term with this and the current obs dont support this right now. Maybe in a few days up near Jamaica-Haiti-Cuba
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
stormthrilla, whats your reasoning i dont see a cat 2 forming at any point maybe td and storm but a cat 2? dude your wish casting


It's quite obvious that he is stormtop/stormkat, one of the more notable trolls on the blog.
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Andrew?,,..........get a lil grip on reality sport.

An Area of Interest,..isnt a Cat-5
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 131147
Slap an eye in the middle of this thing and it could look like hurricane Andrew shortly before landfall. This is one of the more impressive "blobs" I ever remember seeing.
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stormthrilla, whats your reasoning i dont see a cat 2 forming at any point maybe td and storm but a cat 2? dude your wish casting
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
let's see what the 2am TWO says, folks.


I already told you many times what they will say...and Drakeon actually just told you all also..
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Quoting Drakoen:
This type of strong convection is being generated by strong upper level diffluence forcing surface convergence. This does not mean development will occur. Upper level winds are unfavorable for development. Surface pressures remain relatively high.


That's what I was thinking; thanks for giving a better explanation Drak.
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886. 7544
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
the blob is getting bigger


sure is coming into dmax now it could get interesting there is a small shot for this to develope tho stay tuned
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This type of strong convection is being generated by strong upper level diffluence forcing surface convergence. This does not mean development will occur. Upper level winds are unfavorable for development. Surface pressures remain relatively high.
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the blob is getting bigger
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Quoting STORMTHRILLA:
By the time the trough arrives, our system will be a category 2 hurricane...i am calling it right now...and the low shear will make ana bomb out even more...florida be prepared for this...it will be devastating...and taz, there will be no el nino, stop it already...this will be another record breaking season...stormthrilla


I know you're kidding. Currently, there is 25 to 35 knots of shear over the system; the convection will probably not persist. Next week, conditions may become slightly more favorable, but only slightly. I could be wrong, but I wouldn't expect anything too significant.
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an hour to next update think nhc will change the 000 GMT outlook
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yeah its faster now
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879. 7544
it the image for the cmiss soon that was loaded here a few pages back it started to frezze the blog did the same thing in the other years
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878. 7544
Quoting 7544:
getting better now faster


does anyone know what time is blackout for sats this year tia
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seems that someone loade some image that may be taking ntime to load from another server
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876. 7544
getting better now faster
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
why is the blogg so slow is somthing wrong with the server?


must be

text/size of the page is fixed with comp. icon but I closed and reloaded the browser to clear the PF usage and its still slow
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http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/CaribbeanSatellite.aspxLink
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why is the blogg so slow is somthing wrong with the server?
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By the time the trough arrives, our system will be a category 2 hurricane...i am calling it right now...and the low shear will make ana bomb out even more...florida be prepared for this...it will be devastating...and taz, there will be no el nino, stop it already...this will be another record breaking season...stormthrilla
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http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/CaribbeanSatellite.aspx
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
you need to click on the compatability button next to the refresh button


ah thanks ^_^
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Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
Looks interesting thats all I'm saying

PS: why are the letters or the webpage so big?

PSS: is anyone else havinng problems with the new IE8 browser? (just installed it)
you need to click on the compatability button next to the refresh button
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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