Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It is as black as night where I am.


Sun shining here in South Sound, but to the East and South looks ominous, so i imagine East end woud be very dark outside.
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

only a thin layer of clouds here
It is as black as night where I am.
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Persistence, shear and the tropical are three key factors to consider.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No rain yet this morning but doesn't look too far off. VERY overcast especially to the south.

only a thin layer of clouds here
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963. IKE
Looks like an invest is approaching.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
here is the 850 mb vorticity
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Probably won't rain today, looking at the satelite due to the movement of the "blob" in a slightly ESE direction , most of the convection has actually cleared from our area, I think tomorrow or wednesday if it starts a more w to wnw movement then we'll get rain , again , JMO.
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960. IKE
The models are all over the place with the western Caribbean.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting stormpetrol:


and avoiding the strongest shear by moving slightly south of east, giving it time to maintain convection and possibly organize, just my opinion.
It really looks like it is making a good effort. I would be surprised if nothing comes of this. Has held together very well overnight.
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

you guys are getting all the rain. there is nothing here. Send us some :)
No rain yet this morning but doesn't look too far off. VERY overcast especially to the south.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I looked at it this morning and I agree with you. Not looking good for us. Lightning to the south and very overcast.

you guys are getting all the rain. there is nothing here. Send us some :)
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Our blob is going south.


and avoiding the strongest shear by moving slightly south of east, giving it time to maintain convection and possibly organize, just my opinion.
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Our blob is going south.
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Good morning.
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952. IKE
Key West,FL. long-term....

"LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MESOSCALE EFFECTS PREDOMINANT. IT APPEARS
THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF...AND WILL KEEP
NEAR CLIMO POPS WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THEN. BY THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD FALL WITHIN INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC RIDGE TO OUR NORTH
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH BRING A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE KEYS AT SOME
POINT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES IT ABOUT 48 HOURS FASTER (ON FRIDAY)
THAN DOES THE ECMWF (WHICH WAITS UNTIL SUNDAY). DUE TO THE TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AND SINCE THIS IS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WILL HOLD POPS AT 30 PERCENT IN EACH PERIOD FOR NOW."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good Morning;

Development Uncertain; Rain Likely
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting stormpetrol:
Area in the SW caribbean still holding convection & expanding. I see potential with this system.
I looked at it this morning and I agree with you. Not looking good for us. Lightning to the south and very overcast.
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Area in the SW caribbean still holding convection & expanding. I see potential with this system.
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Bismarck, N.D. (AP) Snow has fallen in Dickinson in June, the first time in nearly 60 years the city has seen snow past May.

National Weather Service meteorologist Janine Vining in Bismarck says there were unofficial reports of a couple of inches of snow in Dickinson on Saturday.

Vining says snow in North Dakota in June is uncommon, though it's not unheard of. She says other parts of the state have seen June snow within the past 10 years.
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Bye everyone, hope I can sleep soon myself, my sleep schedule's messed up so it may be a few hours.
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must be
lol
later
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Im up still ?..

I Must be sleepblogging again..

Nitey KOTG.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
go to bed pat
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Is that near Canada?

LOL..nitey Levi
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
I'm out too. 10pm in Alaska. Goodnight all.
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last image before bed
should wane by sunrise hopefully

see ya around 7 or so

later all
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I know, but look, I was trying to sound intelligent!

Don't make it sound like I was pointing out the obvious.

>_>

<_<

*runs*


Lol I already know you're intelligent. Ok I'll shut up as long as you find something else to talk about on this very boring night lol.
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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, kinda goes hand-in-hand with an upper anticyclone over a system lol. You get perfect outflow if you have one perfectly centered and symetrical over a system.


I know, but look, I was trying to sound intelligent!

Don't make it sound like I was pointing out the obvious.

>_>

<_<

*runs*
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Upper-level outflow is also quite nice.


Yeah, kinda goes hand-in-hand with an upper anticyclone over a system lol. You get perfect outflow if you have one perfectly centered and symetrical over a system.
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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah it's got a decent shot. Lots of convection with an anticyclone over top.



Upper-level outflow is also quite nice.
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Quoting Levi32:


Actually near normal and slightly above in the NW Caribbean, but not warmer than last year.


I just hate people who over hype...using words 'extremely' and such...like people that hate crooked pictures and cracks in sidewalks..
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i'm out for the nite see what transpires in the am, and dude are you suggesting that the caribbean is sitting under a low ,explain why for the last month its been so hot and yes iknow what a anticyclone is and what it represents
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Quoting KoritheMan:
This particular disturbance has a far better chance of developing than our Caribbean AOI does:

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080540
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUN 7 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/COBB

An upgrade from earlier.


Yeah it's got a decent shot. Lots of convection with an anticyclone over top.

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No, I realize that they didn't drop it now, I spoke too soon is all. Sorry about that.
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This particular disturbance has a far better chance of developing than our Caribbean AOI does:

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080540
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUN 7 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/COBB

An upgrade from earlier.
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:

LOL..it's below normal..and I got this from Dr M's blog 3 back before you ask..jeeze..


Actually near normal and slightly above in the NW Caribbean, but not warmer than last year.

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Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity


The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA.
EASILY PROBABLY SOME LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN MAY BE RECORDED IN
PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND POSSIBLY EVEN IN HONDURAS IF THIS AREA OF
RAIN MAINTAINS ITSELF AND REACHES LAND. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH
THAT HAS PERSISTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT
MOVES FROM HISPANIOLA TO MARTINIQUE ALSO IS BEING WRAPPED INTO
THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN 25N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.

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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
dude dont underestimate the carribean sea this fer south, i know there is shear and the other stuff but remember the sea temp is warm not just the surface , its been extremly hot for the past 2 months.

LOL..it's below normal..and I got this from Dr M's blog 3 back before you ask..jeeze..
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that was freaky koritheman


I know, I should've known that you'd beat me to it. :P

At any rate, it appears that the NHC has not dropped this system, Makoto, as the yellow circle has reappeared.
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that was freaky koritheman
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Quoting Makoto1:
o___o Did the NHC just drop the blob at 2AM?


The yellow circle isn't there anymore, but I imagine if they dropped it, they wouldn't be mentioning it in their TWO.
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never mind, I just looked at it when they were changing graphics..
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
?????? what anti what ? over the carribean huh?


Upper anti-cyclone is just a fancy term for a high pressure area in the upper levels. It allows air to spread outward and ventilate tropical systems. Plus it provides a low-shear environment.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 080535
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/COBB

As I thought, no changes.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 080535
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/COBB
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A "TUTT" is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough.


A TUTT low is a TUTT that has completely cut-off. TUTT lows are more commonly known in the Western Hemisphere as an "upper cold low". TUTTs are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. TUTTs are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones which may inhibit their strengthening. There are also suggestions that TUTTs can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere. For a more detailed discussion on TUTTs see the article by Fitzpatrick et al. (1995).



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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.