Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Sorry the controls seems to be temporarily off for the Downtown webcam.
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Hi KOTG

The rain is certainly welcome. First real rain of the year on my side of the island, other than the odd shower.

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Link

blusterous morning in Grand Cayman.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Meaning ?


1014 mb is normal sea level pressure. When a tropical system is forming in your general area you expect the pressure to fall, not rise.
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Quoting IKE:
I think they need to label it 93L.


Agreed.
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1012. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
as the sun gets higher in the sky it may very well zap this convection and it will have to form all over again

good to hear yer getting some rain kman
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Quoting kmanislander:
The 1012.8 pressure reading was an hr ago. Now up to 1014.5 and rising rapidly
Meaning ?
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The 1012.8 pressure reading was an hr ago. Now up to 1014.5 and rising rapidly
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1008. Buhdog
Looks like the trough is breaking free from the blob...we should know soon huh?
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Good morning all

Heavy rain here on Grand Cayman this morning with some T&L. Pressure 1012.8 and steady which is just a little below normal and not at all unusual.

The blob to our S has not improved in organization overnight and none of the available data points to any development in the short term.

June systems starting in that area typically take 3 or more days to develop, if they do at all. Coupled with the trough that is producing shear in the area this looks to be a rain maker but no current threat of anything more.

Once the trough lifts out there may be a chance.
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1006. IKE
I think they need to label it 93L.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good Morning....Nothing to add to the analysis this am on the Blog....Looks like sheer will rule this one...She's trying but it's not looking good right now...Trying to get dressed with nowhere to go...
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I really did not think I would wake up this morning to see our "blob" with so much convection still. So often the convection comes and go, so I'm a bit surprised to see it holding together.
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.
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1002. IKE
Seems to be holding it's own this morning on visible satellite.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1001. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
i know yer looking right about now
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well doc any thoughts on this system this morning yet
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


This will show you the code Link. Also check your pop-up and scripted windows browser settings.


Thanks, forgot about the wiki.
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morning
the area of disturbed weather in the southwest caribbean has shown very little organisation during the past 24hrs.although there is upper level divergence the vertical wind shear is too strong to allow any form of development. Most of the models are hinting at a decrease in shear values by wednesday/thursday of this week. the area looks a bit stretched out north east to southwest this morning and the 850mb vorticity map shows very little vorticity the only feature that might enhance the possibility of organisation is the approaching tropical wave from the east.my take on this area is that it will not develop and will only be an area of showers and thunderstorms that will move northeast and affect the islands of the northwest caribbean and eventually move out in the open atlantic
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Quoting Cotillion:
Though a weakish pulse, there is some favourability with MJO for the next fortnight.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ewp.gif

(Chrome doesn't like me doing links or images, for some reason... no tabs come up. Anyone know the 'code' for it?)


The code is...get Firefox. :P

Real code:
(img src="insert image link here" /)

Replace ( and ) with.

That's how we did it back in the old days before image buttons. Surprised I still remember it.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
actually as trough goes east it should pull the convection north

And then shear dies down right?
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Quoting Cotillion:
Though a weakish pulse, there is some favourability with MJO for the next fortnight.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ewp.gif

(Chrome doesn't like me doing links or images, for some reason... no tabs come up. Anyone know the 'code' for it?)


This will show you the code Link. Also check your pop-up and scripted windows browser settings.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10471
actually as trough goes east it should pull the convection north
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992. IKE
If you live in Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the central Bahamas...looks wet.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
991. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:
Shear tendency is dropping over the area, as much as 10kts.

Whole Caribbean though is filled with shear, nowhere for it to really go unless it magically found an anticyclone.



That trough has to move out. I don't see it completely doing that for 3-4 days.

I wonder if the blob follows it east?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

latest shear tend. pretty rough except for the extreme sw carb where that convection is
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Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
that sounds like what they should of said with our AOI except for a couple things.
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Though a weakish pulse, there is some favourability with MJO for the next fortnight.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ewp.gif

(Chrome doesn't like me doing links or images, for some reason... no tabs come up. Anyone know the 'code' for it?)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


convection has persisted now for just under 18 hrs invest soon i do beleive within the next 6 hrs or so if it does not fade to nothing by then
as it continues to move se it probably will be an invest.
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I got to give some credit to this blob that is trying to maintain its convection for a few days now.Can't wait till mid week to see how it's doing if it is still there.
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Shear tendency is dropping over the area, as much as 10kts.

Whole Caribbean though is filled with shear, nowhere for it to really go unless it magically found an anticyclone.

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000
ABNT20 KNHC 081153
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE



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982. IKE
I don't see much change in the shear over the last 18 hours where the blob is at. Still running 20-30 knots. If it was under light shear this would take off. Definite spin, but not at the surface.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858


convection has persisted now for just under 18 hrs invest soon i do beleive within the next 6 hrs or so if it does not fade to nothing by then
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wow the black clouds are rolling in. the hills are blocking the south so I can't see much
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
no outlook yet. they are taking time
Making sure they get it right maybe ?????????
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oops it's out now
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
976. IKE
800 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
East End is pouring and lots of thunder. Kinda breezy too.
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Pre-93L looks really good.

I give it a 40% chance of becoming a TS by Friday and a 70% chance of becoming a TD by Friday.

Here are the invests so far this year:

90L bust?

91L TD 1

92L bust?
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Weather here fairly warm, but overcast. Lots of rain apparently coming though over the next couple of weeks... typical June 'monsoon'.

Obama seems to be having less and less traditional allies in Europe... big swing to the right last night across the entire continent.

Our own version of the Democrats if you will (bad comparison maybe, but best I can think of) - Labour - were totally destroyed. All their local councils wiped out, and suffered their worst ever polling result in nearly 100 years - achieving just below 16%. Losing Wales for the 1st time in nearly 90 years to the Tories (again, the weak comparison being the Republicans), etc.

In American context, it's even more groundbreaking than say the Democrats taking Utah.

Worst thing though - on the 65th anniversary of the D-Day landings, the Nazis gained seats. Worrying.

..And we may have an invest? That in the central Carib?

Maybe 'Andres' coming soon in the EastPac too I see..
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972. IKE
Caribbean Queen....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
971. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
The rain has started in EE
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Sun shining here in South Sound, but to the East and South looks ominous, so i imagine East end woud be very dark outside.
Looks pretty dark to the west from here too. Almost everywhere dark cloud cover.
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968. IKE
The trough that's over Florida is forecast by the latest NAM to be moving east...heading to the Bahamas.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It is as black as night where I am.


Sun shining here in South Sound, but to the East and South looks ominous, so i imagine East end woud be very dark outside.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.