Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 17 - 1

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 — Blog Index

Yes,its quite a Blow to the Calamity Callers and doomcasters.

We sail into the week,..free from that scenario.

Sniff,sniff..I smell shrimp burling...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So eventually just some more rain heading towards Fl next week or weekend ? Not to shabby ! Lookin good :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Dr. M
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I didn't get much rain yesterday but did see 3 rainbows.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Update
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Photobucket
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One needs to look for Model Consensus,I cant stress that enough,esp in the early weeks of the season.
A single run,determines squat.

A series of consecutive model support from the Big 4 and,some definitive surface data will show the way...usually.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
Thanks for the update.

From the previous blog:

Wind shear is still high but it was 80 knots over Jamaica last Thursday, 40 knots today, what will be the value on Wednesday?

Trends is the key to monitoring.


20-25 knots. Thats enough to allow some slight development.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Well there you have it WeatherStudent. Dr. Masters has spoken.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the update.

From the previous blog:

Wind shear is still high but it was 80 knots over Jamaica last Thursday, 40 knots today, what will be the value on Wednesday?

Trends is the key to monitoring.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Dr. Masters for the update.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the update pat and Dr. Masters.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity


The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (°C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 17 - 1

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
79 °F
Partly Cloudy