Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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65 posts in an hour?? yeppers, calm like the weather. I'll raise an eyebrow when we start getting 250 posts an hour.
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Quoting Weather456:
lol Orca,

just waiting and watching. Not jumping the gun on either sides of this.


OK, CMC shows something off the east caost of Florida at hour 72

gfs has something starting in the South Western Caribbean at hour 78

ngp hints at both at hour 108

So much for what the models say.
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sorry weatherstudent nothing brewing in the caribbean
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i was all ready for this blog to be exciting today about the system but oh well i guess we will have something else to watch in a couple of weeks
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lol Orca,

just waiting and watching. Not jumping the gun on either sides of this.
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Thanks for the Sunday update Dr. Masters!!!
It's like a punch in the gut for the doom prognosticators.
Happy Sunday everybody.
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well we can forget about the caribbean system its a wishcasters nightmare
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Quoting Weather456:
Soothing Music



WE need soothing music? umm what do you know your not telling us? hmmm whats coming.. come on.. spill the beans :)


BTW, there is no way in the world thats strong enough to soothe some people.. just say any CAT# and South Eastern Florida... and watch the panic :)
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Quoting leftovers:
quite a bit of turning near ne nicaraqua. seems alittle better organised than early this morning.
from nothing it comes
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Soothing Music

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Looks like a little spin ne tip of Nicaragua headed nnw. Maybe in 2-3 days my guess is low forms sw of Grand Cayman, with shear being the key to its significance.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


SSMI/AMSRE-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic


Looks like that Tropical wave will reach the SW Caribbean disturbance soon.
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SSMI/AMSRE-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
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50. IKE
12Z CMC
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
528
ABNT20 KNHC 071738
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
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Thanks for the update, Dr. M. we can handle a bit of rain on the Brac.
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We went from drought here in S FL to RAIN CENTRAL! Any type of system that would bring a decent amount of rain to us would not be good.
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 242
Hey WS I have the same exact tie...lol! The suit is much better than the gangsta look.. good job
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


True! Hey there, EX? How ya doing today? Welcome onboard.


I'm doing pretty good.
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Based on the latest NAM it will be an EPAC storm and not atlantic.

Watch the storm over the bahamas, it may drift NE and develop. Threat to bermuda I'll have an update later this evening.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/winter123/show.html (Bookmark it! It will get better over time I promise :D)
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On for a update: Where is our Caribbean disturbance supposed to be heading? Does it look like it will be just a rain maker?
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 242
Quoting WeatherStudent:



''Major Development'' That must have been a comical and jokable remark, correct? LOL, ROFL.


By major development, im sure their just referring to actual tropical development.
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Quoting Patrap:



Please put a disclaimer on your graphic saying your NOT a AMS source,..TYVM


I have made that disclaimer before in the past.
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...UPPER LOW HOVERING OVER FLORIDA...

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SLOWLY TAKE THIS SYSTEM VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
BUT SECONDARY TROUGH APPEARS TO REESTABLISH TROUGH OVER THE
PENINSULA. DESPITE NO INDICATION BY THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...ALL
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SUPPORT A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE GULF STARTING
LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE
PRESENT...WE ARE PERPLEXED WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE THE REGION
LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A MEAN RIDGE.



from latest hpc model diagnostic discussion
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3236
12Z GFS puts the strongest winds (25-35 mph) off the coast of Florida.
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Quoting Canealum03:


I think I saw the same rainbow around Boynton Beach around 7:30ish.


Probably. That picture is from the Lake Worth area facing south. I'm pretty sure that was the time I took the picture too.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Expect my first Tropical Update blog for the hurricane season sometime later this afternoon since it seems that there is much to address regarding this entire situation.



Please put a disclaimer on your graphic saying your NOT a AMS source,..TYVM
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Looks like south Florida will continue to have a combination of strong upper level steering winds, Gulf moisture, daytime warmth, and the active sea breezes taking place. IT'S GONNA RAIN!!!!
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Expect my first Tropical Update blog for the hurricane season sometime later this afternoon since it seems that there is much to address regarding this entire situation.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
I didn't get much rain yesterday but did see 3 rainbows.





I think I saw the same rainbow around Boynton Beach around 7:30ish.
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Quoting PELLSPROG:
Look west wpb hurricane05 :)


Yup. Another shot at boomers today.
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Quoting PELLSPROG:
So eventually just some more rain heading towards Fl next week or weekend ? Not to shabby ! Lookin good :)


Most likely yes, but we cannot rule out a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24865
Look west wpb hurricane05 :)
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Yes,its quite a Blow to the Calamity Callers and doomcasters.

We sail into the week,..free from that scenario.

Sniff,sniff..I smell shrimp burling...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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