Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WeatherStudent:


I'm not gangster, Drak. Just good ole' me, nothing else.


?

Aight son, forgiven, no worries.


Chill dawg, don't go there with me, aight?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SJ

Got some rough weather up your way? Saw reports of funnel cloud and waterspout.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
Quoting StormJunkie:
Afternoon all

East coast needs to watch out for these monsters...

#1

#2


Looks like #2 is continuation of #1
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
OMG! Very wild...Someone posted it on my blog a while back. The video was made the same day as the one on my blog.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Afternoon all

East coast needs to watch out for these monsters...

#1

#2
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Quoting Vortex95:
*bad comment about orca removed*

Oh what about vouching for you?

ROFLMAO, darn I missed it :)

I can't believe I left you a nice clean shot.. and you didn't take it.. I am impressed :)
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108. IKE
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Aight son, forgiven, no worries.


Is that your high school grad picture? JFV...I mean WeatherStudentJFV....I mean WSJFV?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
LOL!!! JFV gone gangster

*falls out of chair laughing*
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Quoting Vortex95:
97. Okay so south and then South East.


Seems about right lol.

Oh ya, JFV stop acting like a gangster.
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WS,

You change your portrait I see. I feel like a fool and you know why? I defended you when most were saying your JFV and I have nothing against you and I won't stop talking to you, but you could of been a little honest with me when I asked you.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Thought I'd throw in a quick hello while the blog is slow. Been lurking for the past two seasons and posting for the first time. Live in the Ft. Lauderdale area (Oakland Park - for any locals) and have learned bits and pieces from reading this blog. Just once request for a few of you: Please stop trying to send a tropical system this way. We've already had plenty of rain! ;)
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Quoting weatherblog:


I live in South Florida and I do not panic about a small disturbance in the caribbean. I think you should just direct this just to JFV.


I am far to subtle and innocent to make a remark like that.. just ask Vortex.. he will vouch for me.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Chill dawg, don't go there with me, aight?


lol

I don't mean anything by it; I'm just stating a point.
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accuweathet says it should drift north then northwest
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Quoting Vortex95:
Number orca? okay I'll have the number 2 with no chesse, extra pickles, no mayo, and no onion. And instead of Fries Apple Slices. MMMM


GASP... no cheese.. what are you.. some kind of weirdo???
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(hard to post and upload portraits at the same time) cough, cough
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Just seeing if anyone was out there. Blog's kind of slow today. Sorry if anyone took it the wrong way. Only left it up for 30 seconds. You all are fast!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting WeatherStudent:


OMG, WHAT? Stop playing.


Relax man. TD 1 already came and went.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
86. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


OK, CMC shows something off the east caost of Florida at hour 72

gfs has something starting in the South Western Caribbean at hour 78

ngp hints at both at hour 108

So much for what the models say.


And the 12Z ECMWF puts a low in the GOM.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Something on the Navy Site

01L.ONE


That happened a few weeks ago.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
About 5 miles to the west of me:

06/07/2009 0255 PM

Greenacres City, Palm Beach County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Trained spotter reported quarter size hail covering his
yard at Greenacres area.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting Orcasystems:


WE need soothing music? umm what do you know your not telling us? hmmm whats coming.. come on.. spill the beans :)


BTW, there is no way in the world thats strong enough to soothe some people.. just say any CAT# and South Eastern Florida... and watch the panic :)


I live in South Florida and I do not panic about a small disturbance in the caribbean. I think you should just direct this just to JFV.
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Quoting Vortex95:


You must feel so happy inside you wanna cookie?

:D jk. Btw are you a trained spotter?



Nope. I spot with my eyes and ears.

Pretty cool though. Most hail I've seen in a while.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
i guess things we be more interesting tomorrow i am not feeling this season its really gonna be strange and unpredictable
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One heck of a storm:

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
i wonder where the rest of the blog crews at?
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Just sent a report to the NWS.

Penny sized hail. Gusty winds.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
lol so true
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Quoting heliluv2trac:
i see that orcas i really dont understand the computer models the change so often


Everytime they update the present and forecasted data into the model.. the run changes.. thats why they are basically useless outside of 3 days.

Any change in an input data can skew the output dramatically.

Commonly referred to as GIGO
Garbage In, Garbage Out


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i see that orcas i really dont understand the computer models the change so often
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Quoting heliluv2trac:
sorry weatherstudent nothing brewing in the carib

bean


you should insert probably between weatherstudent and nothing
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65 posts in an hour?? yeppers, calm like the weather. I'll raise an eyebrow when we start getting 250 posts an hour.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.