Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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I emailed jesse a few weeks back on the smooth issue and this the reply i got from him via email.

We are planning on transitioning RadarPlus Silver to MapSpace this summer and we are adding a smoothed radar to MapSpace very soon. We don’t have any plans to change anything further in RadarPlus Gold or Platinum.



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Quoting hurricane23:
Can you screen grab the precip along with visible of the precip in southest florida?


I dont have access to radar plus now because its on my work computer and Im on my Mac now. If you snoop around Jesse's blogs he has some great quality radar images. Sorry about that...
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
The last time I check, Accuweather was run by meteorologists not wishcasters and wannabe meteorologists.

Also the last time I check Drakoen was not a meteorologist so I dont know where he comes off calling people wishcasters.


Read post 151
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
163. V26R
Back on the Day shift now How is school going?
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Quoting V26R:
Hey H23
How ya Been???


Hey whats going on?
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161. V26R
Is it me or is that cutoff ULL ENE of Puerto Rico trying to get its act together?
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I was talking to Jesse the other day and hes thinking of spending the extra money on the smoothing protocol for RP but I dont think its worth it as of yet.

Gustav
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Can you screen grab the precip along with visible of the precip in southest florida?
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158. V26R
Hey H23
How ya Been???
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Absolutley crazy weather outside right now.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Heres some I took of the storms in Seattle a few days ago.

Visible underlay

Regular L2


I like the full screen option for sure but man thats really pixeled.They need to work on that.If there was a smooth option i'd jump on it.
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Quoting aquak9:
even tho tiny, these florida popcorns are packing a lotta energy.

House lit up like jon and kate's paparazzi crew...windows rumblin', blind for a coupla seconds.


speakin of Jon and Kate, they were toolin around downtown last week...ate on the riverfront and took the horse and carriage tour...i live 2 miles from screen gems...one tree hill, dawsons creek, etc and press....the tourists have arrived here too...in droves lol
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Quoting hurricane23:
Mike you got radar plus? Send my some screen grabs man.Iam still thinking about getting it.The only issue really keeping me from getting radar plus is the pixeled radar images.Ive been useing GR3 for a while and dont know if i can get use to that.


Heres some I took of the storms in Seattle a few days ago. Personally I like the pixely look only on Level 2 data.

Visible underlay

Regular L3
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Accuweather has one point of view and others have the other point of view. Both should be respected. Frankly is the rain we should be looking at.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
That was awesome!! 50 mph wind gust according to the NWS and pouring down rain!

Hope everyone is driving safely...wait its Florida...never mind.


Did you guys get any hail yet? Those storms are just off to my west and Im already getting pea size hail and frequent lightning.
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Mike you got radar plus? Send my some screen grabs man.Iam still thinking about getting it.The only issue really keeping me from getting radar plus is the pixeled radar images.Ive been useing GR3 for a while and dont know if i can get use to that.
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That was awesome!! 50 mph wind gust according to the NWS and pouring down rain!

Hope everyone is driving safely...wait its Florida...never mind.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting Weather456:


OK, i have pro and radar plus but I will disconitnue radar plus since it's not a benefit to me (I live outside the US). But professional have some very nice products.


Yeah thats what I hear often from folks who live outside the US. Were looking to update the RP servers soon to include the new TWDR sites near PR in the hope that we can cover some of the islands.
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Quoting IKE:
Here's Accuweathers take on our Caribbean Queen.....

"The last area of concern, which has the best chance of possibly showing some organization is a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean. Showers and thunderstorms have been off and on with this feature the last 24 hours, although with relatively low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, this system has some potential to organize as it slowly drifts north and west by midweek."


What shear maps are they looking at? Must be those wishcaster maps. Shear is always favorable on those.
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Quoting heliluv2trac:
accuweathet says it should drift north then northwest


you arent talking about that thing where theres nothing brewing are you?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Accu weather premium has no models and the radars only update every 10 minutes. Its just basically the free site without the ads. I havent used premium since 2007 so I dont know if they have updated it or not. I have been relatively impressed by accuweathers products lately. I just purchased their lightning tracker for radar plus and Im impressed.


OK, i have pro and radar plus but I will disconitnue radar plus since it's not a benefit to me (I live outside the US). But professional have some very nice products.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Man, I love this site.

WRF and RUC images

Probably better for the advanced weather buff
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vortex95:
Can someone please post the cap values for s fla i'd like to favorite it.


Observed Sounding Archive
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
there are so many clouds I keep thinking it is 6 o'clock when it is 2 o'clock
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting Weather456:
Storm2007,

I'm glad your here because this morming I wanted to ask what is the difference between accu pro and accu premium?


Accu weather premium has no models and the radars only update every 10 minutes. Its just basically the free site without the ads. I havent used premium since 2007 so I dont know if they have updated the interface or not. I have been relatively impressed by accuweathers products lately. I just purchased their lightning tracker for radar plus and Im impressed at the street level accuracy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
138. IKE
Here's Accuweathers take on our Caribbean Queen.....

"The last area of concern, which has the best chance of possibly showing some organization is a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean. Showers and thunderstorms have been off and on with this feature the last 24 hours, although with relatively low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, this system has some potential to organize as it slowly drifts north and west by midweek."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
even tho tiny, these florida popcorns are packing a lotta energy.

House lit up like jon and kate's paparazzi crew...windows rumblin', blind for a coupla seconds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Accuweather

7/6/09

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center will be watching the area of the western Caribbean Sea during the coming week. This is because weak low pressure over Central America is likely to become better organized as it drifts northward to open water on or after midweek.

It is still too early to know whether this area will consolidate into a tropical depression as it drifts towards Cuba during the mid- to late week. While June is early in the hurricane season, the area of the western Caribbean is one spot known to host early season storms.

At this time, there remains a moderate favorability for development of an organized tropical weather system in the area.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Vortex95:
Can someone please post the cap values for s fla i'd like to favorite it.


This should really help you.

CAPE values loop
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The Skew-T is from 12z. You can look at the RUC analysis for the CAPE/CAP values:
Link
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


LOL, that looks like a medical graphing chart there, FM.


It is a Skew T chart. I love to use these during winter and spring.
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Storm2007,

I'm glad your here because this morming I wanted to ask what is the difference between accu pro and accu premium?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Their has been a tornado (EF3-4)in Northern Italy. 24 people injured and 200 evacuated.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vortex95:
Can someone please post the cap values for s fla i'd like to favorite it.




That is from 12z though...
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Amazing amount of lightning to my north and south. Gonna go grab a drink and watch it from the balcony.
FULL IMAGE
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Afternoon nrti

Have not heard any reports of rough weather up this way yet. Looks like the worst of it may be S of us; or it was earlier today.


It came out of the Charleston office, don't know the local geography.

000
NWUS52 KCHS 071826
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
226 PM EDT SUN JUN 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0211 PM WATER SPOUT 4 NW DANIEL ISLAND 32.91N 79.95W
06/07/2009 BERKELEY SC PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED BRIEF WATERSPOUT OVER THE COOPER RIVER
NORTH OF I-526 BRIDGE.

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


?

Aight son, forgiven, no worries.


Chill dawg, don't go there with me, aight?


bhahahahahahahahahahahaha
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Afternoon nrti

Have not heard any reports of rough weather up this way yet. Looks like the worst of it may be S of us; or it was earlier today.
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119. Skyepony (Mod)
Tornado warning for the south end of Brevard County FL. Should pass a little south of me.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


I'm not gangster, Drak. Just good ole' me, nothing else.


?

Aight son, forgiven, no worries.


Chill dawg, don't go there with me, aight?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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