Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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the models for 91E have it intensifying into a cat 2 in 3 days!!!
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1066. MahFL
How many times do we need the TWO posted in full ? sheesh.
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Quoting IKE:


It does look more symmetrical right now on water vapor.
i agree with you there, Ike
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The Great Poof 09' refuses to POOF.
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Quoting Crawls:
The local weather information in the Southern Louisiana area has stated, "Due to the El Nino and water temp 2 to 3 deg. below normal", the Central Gulf Coast can anticpate a "break" this year.

Do you agree with this?


Strongly disagree. 2004 was an El Nino year and so was 1992. 2004 had late season cold fronts as well.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks like it is trying to pull itself together this morning. What does it look like to you ?
looks like a big bubble of convection with no LLC imo, I do believe though we should have an invest soon, imo.
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1061. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks like it is trying to pull itself together this morning. What does it look like to you ?


It does look more symmetrical right now on water vapor.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1060. Crawls
The local weather information in the Southern Louisiana area has stated, "Due to the El Nino and water temp 2 to 3 deg. below normal", the Central Gulf Coast can anticpate a "break" this year.

Do you agree with this?
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Winds approaching TD status, still waiting for a LLC.
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Quoting IKE:
Water Vapor....

Looks like it is trying to pull itself together this morning. What does it look like to you ?
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1057. IKE
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
900 am EDT Monday Jun 8 2009


Synopsis...
a weak trough of low pressure lingering off the Georgia coast
today will gradually dissipate. A Lee-side trough will develop
over the midlands Tuesday and persist through Friday. A weak cold
front will approach from the north this weekend.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
Water Vapor....

looks good, think they should label it 93-L, Good morning all!!
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1055. IKE
Water Vapor....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1054. NEwxguy
Wish we could get rid of that low in canada,that keeps the weather patterns in the US out of sync. Not your typical June weather pattern.Effects are felt all the way down to the Gulf
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I think at some point this system will move into the gulf and give plenty of rain to the gulf coast just where.
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Tropical Update
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Models have now been run on 91E, it should show up now on other sites other than NRL.
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1048. NEwxguy
Thanks,Storm
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1047. P451
StormW it is good to see you have decided to continue to provide us with your analysis this season.
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1046. P451
Reading the blog it would seem the general consensus is:

* Too much dry air plowing southward from the gulf.
* Too much shear.
* The same conditions that have helped create it are the same conditions that are likely to prevent actual development.
* System has not yet broken off from the trough.
* This time of year it takes 72 hours or more of persistent convection to develop a tropical system from a blob.
* Weak cyclonic flow that is not really associated with the heavy thunderstorms.
* System likely to dissipate or just remain a rainmaker unless the trough pulls out quicker than expected.
* If something were to develop it would be Thursday and beyond.

.....resume blob watching! It was an intense little sucker late yesterday though. You'd fear that in the right environment.
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Different view of recent QuikScat pass, shows weak, weak (Did I say weak) partial cyclonic flow just north of Panama.


Click on image to view original size in a new window



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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUN 08 2009




E OF 110W...
NORTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE NOTED ABOVE IS PRODUCING DEEP LAYERED DRY SINKING
AIR ACROSS SRN MEXICO/ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A DEFORMATION ZONE
S OF EL SALVADOR IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM COSTA RICA
TO HONDURAS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FLARE OVER THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS
CONTINUING TO ENHANCE A WIDE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN THE CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS SLOWLY
LIFT THE ITCZ NWD INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND DEVELOPS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER COSTA RICA AND NE INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE WILL
DRIFT NWD THROUGH WED. THIS REPRESENTS A VERY WET PATTERN FOR
THE REGION E OF 93W AS DEPICTED IN THE GFS QPF FORECASTS.

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no T # ran on it yet too
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Quoting extreme236:


And I'm assuming your joking about this lol



lol
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looking forword for this week ENSO
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Quoting Tazmanian:
91E has a eye nic one too



And I'm assuming your joking about this lol
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Quoting kmanislander:


It certainly is interesting, particularly as it is the first "blob" in that area this year as far as I recall. My point about the pressure was simply to underscore that all we appear to having going on at the moment is heavy thunderstorms typical for this time of year.

Of course, given the distance away from us I would expect that surface pressures in the immediate vicinity of the convective mass to be lower but not appreciably so.

Anyway, time to head to the office. I will check in later to see if the day time heating takes a toll on it.


This is a good point.
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That would be scary if there was a bunch of thunderstorms around that "eye"!
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Quoting kmanislander:


Confirmed, but the rain has eased off now in my area and only high cloud around. No doubt the showers will come and go. Speaking of go, I'm out !!

Have a nice day.
Still a decent rain going on in East End. Hasn't let up yet and winds about 25 mph.
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1035. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
catch ya later kman have a good day
iam off to work as well
be back around noon
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55462
the QS this morning is showing no signs a surface circulation,there is a mid level circulation
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Quoting IKE:
Looks like the Cayman Islands are being clouded over.


Confirmed, but the rain has eased off now in my area and only high cloud around. No doubt the showers will come and go. Speaking of go, I'm out !!

Have a nice day.
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1032. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting ricderr:
and the first eye of the season has been spotted on doc masters blog.....all is right with the world :-)
but its not a pin hole eye ric
lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55462
Wierd how they initiated invest 91E, it only shows up on the Navy site and they have not run any models on it. Guess they only want the satellite info from NRL.
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BP 1014 and holding here in Cayman Brac. Light drizzle, some T&L in the distance to the SE.

oops....... not so distant. ziiiiiiiing!
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1029. ricderr
and the first eye of the season has been spotted on doc masters blog.....all is right with the world :-)
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Quoting extreme236:


I dont think anyone is really saying a tropical cyclone is forming at this instant, but its just an interesting area of disturbed weather.


It certainly is interesting, particularly as it is the first "blob" in that area this year as far as I recall. My point about the pressure was simply to underscore that all we appear to having going on at the moment is heavy thunderstorms typical for this time of year.

Of course, given the distance away from us I would expect that surface pressures in the immediate vicinity of the convective mass to be lower but not appreciably so.

Anyway, time to head to the office. I will check in later to see if the day time heating takes a toll on it.
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1027. IKE
Looks like the Cayman Islands are being clouded over.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting kmanislander:
1017. stormpetrol 12:44 PM GMT on June 08, 2009

Hope you are enjoying the weather today !.

Nice change.


It's ben so hot & dry lately the change is most welcomed.Hope you have a nice day as well.
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91E has a eye nic one too

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Quoting Tazmanian:
well now looks like 91E is on its way on being the 1st name storm all so if you look at the navy site it looks like it has a eye


No eye yet taz but definitely looks good. About time the EPAC gets a storm. Link
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1023. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

heres your 91E image
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55462
Quoting kmanislander:


1014 mb is normal sea level pressure. When a tropical system is forming in your general area you expect the pressure to fall, not rise.


I dont think anyone is really saying a tropical cyclone is forming at this instant, but its just an interesting area of disturbed weather.
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Latest QuikScat


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1017. stormpetrol 12:44 PM GMT on June 08, 2009

Hope you are enjoying the weather today !.

Nice change.
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1019. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
hopefully thats all it will be just some welcome rains friend
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55462
well now looks like 91E is on its way on being the 1st name storm all so if you look at the navy site it looks like it has a eye
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Sorry the controls seems to be temporarily off for the Downtown webcam.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.