Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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When you see so much disparity in the Big 4,then we must assume development isnt certain,as Jeff Masters says,above,a "less than 30%" chance at Tropical Development. When you start seeing the ensemble agreeing with one another,or consensus among them,..
then Things usually follow suit.
Wouldnt be much use if every model spit out the same solution everytime.
Each model has its own High and Low points and are individually different.
For a reason,..kinda like us Humans.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
No, your right. Models have gone from agreement a couple days ago, to conflicting.

something probably will come out of this eventually, but to what degree depends on the upper air conditions at that time...
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wow.. the models are out to lunch, and they went a ways to get there. It seems like every model offers up a completley different solution. When I was looking at the GFS I noticed it still developed the area in the southwestern caribbean, although quite a bit weaker than previous runs, and it also seems to want to have some type, either tropical/subtropical, development off the southeast coast. The CMC doesn't even develop the caribbean area, but does develop something north of Cuba around the Bahamas and has that moving northeast. The NGPS develops an area that looks like it moves from south america northwestward to right over Jamaica? Am I crazy or this really what the computer models are saying? jw
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Supercell initiation is about to occur in KS and NE.
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roatangardener--- so great to see you!
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Looks heavy thunderstorm activity starting to pop...

poss-Anna
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hello everyone... haven't posted since last year.....building storm here in oakland park fl (n of ft laud)..... just heard 3.. loud loud and i mean loud claps of thunder
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Outstanding..Jeff Masters always has something to enlighten us with,in a interview.

Thanx for the info.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
We have had the enormous honour of being able to interview to Mr. Masters for Cazatormentas.Net, who has nicely agreed to answer some questions formulated by Spanish Weather Enthusiasts. You could find the questions and their answers both in Spanish and in English.

Complete Interview

We want to thank him for his great effort attending to our request!

Many thanks again, Mr. Masters!! Always learning reading in your blog!
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Current Conditions
Roatan WU-Page


Updated: 27 min 27 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
88 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 62%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 9 mph from the NNE
Pressure: 29.80 in (Falling)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
. NVM
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
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Im going to be in Cancun at the end of next week. Should be fun
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i am hoping that some of this system in the western caribbean will bring rain to a very dry island of Roatan. we havent had any signaficant rain for over a month and the winds have been blowing in the 25 k+ range. seems there is still some high pressure from the gulf of mex keeping this system from getting any closer to us. any idea when this might push a little more west and come our way
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WV Loop ,GOM and below..

,,or WALL-O-Shear.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Adrian, whats your Texture memory for GRLevel3?
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195. V26R
Wow that bad boy is clearly visable on that Sat Shot near Miami too?
Thats what I love about SFL Boomers and the way they just pop like that
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GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery

These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.


GOES-12 Atmospheric Animations..Atlantic wide View,animated
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Quoting V26R:
2007 if Im looking at the correct cell its
37,000 ft. with a VIL of 58 kg/m²


Thanks for that. Quite the little cell near Miami.



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192. V26R
Looks as if things are going to really pop across the Midwest soon with a Cape of near 4000
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Would someone be willing to give me a quick update on what is going on in the tropics? Have the models dropped the potential area? Sorry, I haven't had much time to read up, super busy lately. Thanks a lot WU


Tropical Update



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
190. V26R
2007 if Im looking at the correct cell its
37,000 ft. with a VIL of 58 kg/m²
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Would someone be willing to give me a quick update on what is going on in the tropics? Have the models dropped the potential area? Sorry, I haven't had much time to read up, super busy lately. Thanks a lot WU
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Quoting V26R:
SPC just issed this MSD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS INTO PARTS OF SE NEB/SW IA/NW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071936Z - 072130Z

A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY AT SOME POINT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING TIMING...BUT RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF SUPERCELLS APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z.

BENEATH THE CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
IS BECOMING STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ALREADY
INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG...CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF A WEAK WAVE ALONG STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS. A NORTH-SOUTH UPSTREAM CLOUD BAND EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS REFLECTIVE OF AT LEAST A NARROW ZONE OF
MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT SUPPRESSIVE OF INHIBITION. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT... COUPLED WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING...TO SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF STORMS AS EARLY AS
21-22Z. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO EXIST NEAR/WEST THROUGH
NORTH OF TOPEKA...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY BECOMING SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...
AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL...AS 850 MB FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK
TO SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN TO 30+ KT...AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 06/07/2009



Rapid initiation of Supercells seems likely. A nice CU field has set up. Lifted index in KS is near -11 and Cape is near 4000.
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NWS Miami..

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A WEAK LOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA TO DRIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND TOWARDS CUBA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE CWA FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS WEEKEND. SO HAVE KEPT THE WINDS BREEZY
ALONG THE EAST COAST AREAS THIS WEEKEND...AND INCREASE THE POPS TO
HIGH IN CHANCE OVER THE CWA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH
THIS WEEK...AND ADJUST THE EXTENDED GRIDS IF NEED BE TO THE LATEST
LONG RANGE MODELS
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186. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
Show me someone that wants to see development in the WCARIB and I show you a tropical weather met or tropical weather enthusiast.

Just like how people who track severe look lean towards tornado development, the same goes for the tropics. Heck the only reason why I'm in this profession was because of a hurricane.


So even though you have to be real and objective, the profession would be a very boring one if there was no distubances to look at.


I would never post on here if there wasn't some interest in seeing tropical systems in the Atlantic, mainly.

I'm a wishcaster.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Tiny storm just poped in opa-locka



Whats the VIL sig on that?
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184. V26R
SPC just issed this MSD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS INTO PARTS OF SE NEB/SW IA/NW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071936Z - 072130Z

A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY AT SOME POINT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING TIMING...BUT RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF SUPERCELLS APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z.

BENEATH THE CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
IS BECOMING STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ALREADY
INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG...CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF A WEAK WAVE ALONG STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS. A NORTH-SOUTH UPSTREAM CLOUD BAND EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS REFLECTIVE OF AT LEAST A NARROW ZONE OF
MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT SUPPRESSIVE OF INHIBITION. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT... COUPLED WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING...TO SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF STORMS AS EARLY AS
21-22Z. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO EXIST NEAR/WEST THROUGH
NORTH OF TOPEKA...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY BECOMING SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...
AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL...AS 850 MB FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK
TO SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN TO 30+ KT...AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 06/07/2009

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Show me someone that wants to see development in the WCARIB and I show you a tropical weather met or tropical weather enthusiast.

Just like how people who track severe look lean towards tornado development, the same goes for the tropics. Heck the only reason why I'm in this profession was because of a hurricane.


So even though you have to be real and objective, the profession would be a very boring one if there was no distubances to look at, and thus only human nature to lean towards such. Not wishcasting.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
182. V26R
Not too much lightning action over the Midwest, Seems like theres more over FLA
right now, but the day is still early

Link
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Tiny storm just poped in opa-locka

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Crazy instability in the Mid west.

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Hurricaneseason2006 last time I checked you were still a troll LOL!
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178. V26R
Hey give it some time
maybe it will!
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Quoting V26R:
Hey Orca How ya been Bud?
Long time no see


So far so good.. alive and trying a new format this year.. S&I.. so far its not working.
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Quoting IKE:


He threw some bait out hoping Drak would catch it.

I know.. I just couldn't see why he would do it.. so I gave it back to him :)
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Quoting hurricane23:
Radarlab HD from weathertap is pretty cool but it hogs up my pc like there no tomorrow.Its java based


Not a big fan of Radar lab. Slows up my computer pretty bad as well.
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Quoting hurricane23:
I emailed jesse a few weeks back on the smooth issue and this the reply i got from him via email.

We are planning on transitioning RadarPlus Silver to MapSpace this summer and we are adding a smoothed radar to MapSpace very soon. We don%u2019t have any plans to change anything further in RadarPlus Gold or Platinum.





Yeah they already have smoothed the "Mapspace" radar. I really hope he decides to leave Radar Plus unsmoothed. GR is pretty intimidating smoothed though.

Hi-res smoothed


Hi-res unsmoothed
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173. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


So why bother stepping in to the blog?
Which are you if your here? "wishcasters or wannabe meteorologists"


He threw some bait out hoping Drak would catch it.
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172. V26R
Hey Orca How ya been Bud?
Long time no see
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Radarlab HD from weathertap is pretty cool but it hogs up my pc like there no tomorrow.Its java based
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
The last time I check, Accuweather was run by meteorologists not wishcasters and wannabe meteorologists.

Also the last time I check Drakoen was not a meteorologist so I dont know where he comes off calling people wishcasters.


So why bother stepping in to the blog?
Which are you if your here? "wishcasters or wannabe meteorologists"
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169. IKE
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168. V26R
AHHH
The Atlantic Hurricane Season must be here!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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