Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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267. viman
just googled it -- highest recorded air temp was 57.8 °C (136 °F)Al 'Aziziyah, Libya
13 September 1922
highest recorded surface temperature was 70.7 °C (159.3 °F) in 2005 in the Lut desert, Iran.
Dang - I won't ever complain about the heat again. :)





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266. IKE
Quoting presslord:
hi WSJFV...


LOL
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261- That would be the one. Its a shame that I'm allergic to heights because I would love to see the view from those bridges.

For now, I'll stick to our little draw bridges in Palm Beach that go over the Intracoastal.
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When we returned from Norway and Europe on the USS Raliegh LPD-1 in April 84,..we sailed under the Old bridge going to Moorhead City I believe.
Was a Great Sight seeing that Bridge,the Old one after being away from the USA for 4 Months.

We cleared that Sucka with the Pilot by about 3 ft to the radar Mast.
Was way cool.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
hi WSJFV...
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..I kinda figured as much.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Savannah has one of those bridges too. Way to big for me. Stayed away from both when visiting both Savannah and Charleston.




Talmadge Memorial Bridge
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CRS...I'm pretty involved in that...is a ton of interesting fun...
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the Ravenel is only aboutt 3 years old...replaced 2 old (circa 1930's and early '60's) whcih were quite scary...the Ravenel has a walking/biking lane...pretty view of the Harbor...
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presslord:


Here is a good reason to keep Hurricanes away from the area for a while...

http://www.postandcourier.com/news/2009/jun/07/big_draw_will_be_tall_ships85170/#comments


Eighteen tall ships are scheduled to make port for Charleston Harbor Fest 2009. The June 26-29 event, which started as a simple wooden-boat show, is fast becoming a major happening on the Charleston calendar.

CRS
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Quoting P451:


I am not sure if it is a verified/official reading or not.

I found it at http://coolwx.com/extreme/



Even if it is verified, I know it's not a world record (though still amazing). World record was 136 F in Libya, which I think translates to 59 C.
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Savannah has one of those bridges too. Way to big for me. Stayed away from both when visiting both Savannah and Charleston.
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Quoting P451:


I watched a Discovery program based on the building of that bridge. Of interest is one part of the show they had severe weather move in and they had a waterspout. Kind of eerily similar to the pic that presslord just posted.

Coincidence? Or how much does topography play into the formation of such structures.


frankly the topography can be summed up pretty easily...flat...
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Quoting presslord:
Zoo...Sav is correct...it's the Ravenal Bridge...connecting the Charleston Penninsula with Mt. Pleasant...which, btw, has no mountain...and is not particularly pleasant...but the bridge is a beaut...


I think I've been over that bridge. I want one as good as that up here but "good luck".

I remember this little bridge from the mainland to the Isle of Palms, it was pouring rain, and we get on the bridge and it stops. Get off the bridge, the rain comes in again. It was quite odd...
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Patrap, didn't like the sarcasm lol, but enjoyed the link. It was very informative. Thanks
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Zoo...Sav is correct...it's the Ravenel Bridge...connecting the Charleston Penninsula with Mt. Pleasant...which, btw, has no mountain...and is not particularly pleasant...but the bridge is a beaut...
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248. viman
Quoting P451:
OT: It hit 132.8 Degrees in Afghanistan a couple of days ago:

# Past 72 Hours: 56°C (132.8°F) [KQD9:SALERNO FOB, AFGHANISTAN]


Is that a record high? Never heard of it going that high!!
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One things for certain, there is a lot of instability down the caribbean.
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245. IKE
Quoting SavannahStorm:


That low is moving on east/NE.

The trough should lift out by mid-week. Then the wave hits in the western Caribbean.
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Quoting zoomiami:
Thanks Vort, Nrti, Aquak, I'm putting these on my favorites - working on reference items this week, so its a good fit.

Press - what is that bridge? Its beautiful.


That's the Ravenel Bridge in Charleston.
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Thanks Vort, Nrti, Aquak, I'm putting these on my favorites - working on reference items this week, so its a good fit.

Press - what is that bridge? Its beautiful.
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241. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
I'm interested to see what our tropical wave will bring to the WCARIB



Looks like the 18Z NAM is picking up on that wave at 84 hours....

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Charleston, SC yesterday
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SBCAPE (Surface-Based Convective Available Potential Energy) is a measure of instability in the troposphere. This value represents the total amount of potential energy available to a parcel of air originating at the surface and being lifted to its level of free convection (LFC). No parcel entrainment is considered. The CAPE and CIN calculations use the virtual temperature correction.

CIN (Convective INhibition) represents the "negative" area on a sounding that must be overcome before storm initiation can occur.

The NCAPE (Normalized CAPE) is CAPE that is divided by the depth of the buoyancy layer (units of m s**-2). Values near or less than .1 suggest a "tall, skinny" CAPE profile with relatively weak parcel accelerations, while values closer to .3 to .4 suggest a "fat" CAPE profile with large parcel accelerations possible. Normalized CAPE and lifed indicies are similar measures of instability.

MUCAPE (Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy) is a measure of instability in the troposphere. This value represents the total amount of potential energy available to the most unstable parcel of air found within the lowest 300-mb of the atmosphere while being lifted to its level of free convection (LFC). No parcel entrainment is considered. The CAPE and CIN calculations use the virtual temperature correction.

The LPL (Lifted Parcel Level) allows for the determination of the height of the most unstable parcel. This makes it easy to identify areas where the largest CAPE is "elevated."


These are from the SPC. Hope that helps...a little.
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I'm interested to see what our tropical wave will bring to the WCARIB

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Getting wet again where they really don't need to again.

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V2 may be there..they get around pretty good,and the Front Range is a Wide open area today.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting zoomiami:
A matter of searching for the right terms. When I first learned legal research there was a book just for terms - if you couldn't find what you were looking for, you searched through the "words" to find one that worked.

Obviously, I need a meterology dictionary...lol


Glossary of Meteorology
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Here's the one you need Zoo...the AMS glossary!


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Woops!
Something shifted West.....



Probability of TC Formation within 24 Hours



Photobucket

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A matter of searching for the right terms. When I first learned legal research there was a book just for terms - if you couldn't find what you were looking for, you searched through the "words" to find one that worked.

Obviously, I need a meterology dictionary...lol
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I was following along with that earthquake and thought we might hear from you.

It looks like you might get that rain this coming week!

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Yes Patrap, the Weather Channel just talking about that same cell. I think the Vortex 2 team is in the area.
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i know. i browse here all the time but dont usually post until hurricane season here starts to get busy. now we have earthquakes to deal with. since the 7.1 on may 28th we've had aftershocks in the 4.5 area almost every day. somehow we didnt have much structural damage.. just broken glass and ceramics. i was just wondering if this system in the western carib will slide over to the west and give us some badly needed rain... Helen
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I used the search engine and found that excellent explanation,,yvw


Anytime zm.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Thanks Pat, appreciate the explanation
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Denver Colorado
308 am MDT sun Jun 7 2009



Short term...cold front is currently backing southwest across the
forecast area. Weak outflow from thunderstorms over southern Wyoming
and northern Colorado is pushing through the Denver metropolitan area now.
The cold front runs from Fort Collins to Fort Lupton to Byers. At
its current pace the front will be through most of the metropolitan area by
sunrise. Air behind the front is very moist and cooler. Dew points
behind the front over northeast are in the middle 50s. This will result
in low clouds and fog this morning.


At the upper levels...a short wave trough over Utah will move across
northern Colorado today. The lift from the short wave combined with
the moisture behind the front should produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The amount of thunderstorm activity and the strength
of it will depend on how much clearing occurs late this morning and
this afternoon. Looks like it will be slow to clear out today and
afternoon heating will be slow. Lowered high temperatures to the 60s
for most locations today which will limit how unstable it will be
this afternoon. If current forecasted highs pan out convective available potential energy will
remain below a 1000 j/kg. This will make it hard for storms to
become severe but not impossible.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
NEXRAD Radar
Denver, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI


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Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE)


One term you will hear when listening to NOAA Weather Radio, storm chasers, and weather experts during storm season is CAPE. Here is a little about what CAPE is and how it pertains to severe weather.

The convective available potential energy or CAPE, is used by weather officials and storm chasers to understand what the potential might be for severe weather, and how powerful those storms might become if they do materialize. The potential energy available for convection is expressed mathematically using a standard measurement of energy represented as Joules Per Kilogram. A high CAPE value might also be expressed by storm chasers and weather experts by using the term "high instability". When chasers talk about a highly unstable atmosphere, CAPE values are usually in excess of 2500 J/kg's which would supply ample energy for strong updrafts and violent storms should they develop.

CAPE value Convective potential
0 Stable
0-1000 Marginally Unstable
1000-2500 Moderately Unstable
2500-3500 Very Unstable
3500 Extremely Unstable

More specifically, CAPE represents the amount of buoyant energy available to speed up a parcel vertically, or the amount of work a parcel does on the environment. Storms require high CAPE values; the higher the CAPE value, the more energy available to promote storm growth. CAPE is especially important when air parcels are able to reach the (LFC) or Layer of Free Convection. To find CAPE from a skew-T thermodynamic diagram like the one below, simply locate the area on the diagram where the parcel sounding (Thick yellow vertical line) is farther to the right (warmer) than the atmosphere sounding (red line). The white shaded region on the sounding below is the area of CAPE.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting Patrap:
When you see so much disparity in the Big 4,then we must assume development isnt certain,as Jeff Masters says,above,maybe a 30% chance at Tropical Development. When you start seeing the ensemble agreeing with one another,or consensus among them,..
then Things usually follow suit.
Wouldnt be much use if every model spit out the same solution everytime.
Each model has its own High and Low points and are individually different.
For a reason,..kinda like us Humans.


I agree, it drives me crazy how they swing from one solun to the other though. I've heard of feedback runs, but not quite sure how that happens.
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CAPE
Convective Available Potential Energy. A measure of the amount of energy available for convection. CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather. Observed values in thunderstorm environments often may exceed 1000 joules per kilogram (J/kg), and in extreme cases may exceed 5000 J/kg.

However, as with other indices or indicators, there are no threshold values above which severe weather becomes imminent. CAPE is represented on an upper air sounding by the area enclosed between the environmental temperature profile and the path of a rising air parcel, over the layer within which the latter is warmer than the former. (This area often is called positive area.) See also CIN.




Here's the link to the NWS glossary...bookmark it...kinda handy!

Link
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Sarcasm...me?

..say it aint so.

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting Patrap:
When you see so much disparity in the Big 4,then we must assume development isnt certain,as Jeff Masters says,above,maybe a 30% chance at Tropical Development. When you start seeing the ensemble agreeing with one another,or consensus among them,..
then Things usually follow suit.
Wouldnt be much use if every model spit out the same solution everytime.
Each model has its own High and Low points and are individually different.
For a reason,..kinda like us Humans.

A hint of sarcasm? I think so.. I understand what you said, but I was just shocked that all of them were going totally opposite ways with the forecast. I've personally never seen this much disagreement. I mean, I've seen differences but this looks whacky
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Ok, I give up. I have googled, read, and looked at 4 models, all for the "Cape". Someone please tell me what the "Cape" is.

TIA
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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