Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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pressure dropping like a rock at the buoy

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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Depending on where this blob ends up, will the Gulfstream waters have any effect on the system developing or is South Florida looking at a soaking all over again for this coming week?


I remember several storms that were small that blew up when hitting the Gulfstream!
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I wouldnt hold your breath...nothing is going to form until the end of June at the earliest. Conditions just are not right. Check back in 2 weeks and we may have our first storm.
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Rsweet: All I am concerned about is rain amounts, we saw what a freakish storm can do to South Florida because of what happened on Miami Beach. The ground here can not take anymore pounding on, if that comes up this way and gives us more rain. It could get really interesting because of the fact that alot of the lakes here are over capacity on water.
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I am not discounting anything yet! This is the time of year when things happen unexpectedly and sudden, it's Hurricane season after all.
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Yes that blog in SW Caribbean wont be anything. Models always over do it 8-9 days out and then refocus 4-5 days in. You can not jump on everything. Just looking back at the conditions 5-6 days ago, you knew it was not going to be anything. Things just were not lining up and the models did not initialize well at all. You always VIV your models before you trust something even 3 days out let alone 9 days.
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Depending on where this blob ends up, will the Gulfstream waters have any effect on the system developing or is South Florida looking at a soaking all over again for this coming week?
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
hmmmm.... this makes me wonder if Patrap may be somehow involved....

Nagin "Shanghaied"



Local comment from nola.com story

Posted by DaddyEarl on 06/07/09 at 4:14PM

ROFL Can we pay China to keep him quarantined with no means of communication until the end of his term?

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Been watching this disturbance in the Western Caribbean throughout the afternoon and taking a look into the computer models as well. Here are my thoughts. (And for Patrap, I'm not a certified meteorologist.)

Throughout the day, this disturbance has been maintaining some mid-level circulation, but there exists nothing at the surface and this circulation isn't even closed. Oddly enough, convection has been increasing throughout the day, so this further lends credibility to the fact that this isn't a tropical feature at the moment. So, the disturbance remains rather disorganized and doesn't appear to be showing any signs towards tropical development.

With wind shear continuing at around 30-40 kts over the convection, this disturbance will continue to struggle, and could conceivably fall apart under such hostile conditions. But, if this disturbance manages to hold on, computer models have hinted that wind shear could decrease to marginally favorable levels by late in the week. At the most, the computer models develop this disturbance into a weak tropical low. Nonetheless, development or not, it does appear that this will be a major rainmaker across Central America, the Western Caribbean, and quite possibly Florida and the Bahamas later down the road.

But I must say that with the inconsistency and lack of model agreement, even this remains uncertain.

Based upon this forecaster's analysis of the latest satellite imagery, observational data, and computer model runs, I'm not expecting any tropical development from this disturbance. But, I will continue to watch this disturbance and computer models for anything that could convince me otherwise.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Where ?

Jamaica, pressure is 1010 and decreasing
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

It's been looking like it was going to rain here from 12:00 and still nothing and it's very hot
Where ?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Finally got some rain in Cayman. Looks like a lot more to come. Winds SSE @25 mph. Pressure 1011 mb.

It's been looking like it was going to rain here from 12:00 and still nothing and it's very hot
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Quoting K8eCane:



yes...neither of us will ever forget that....and then when my uncle had his heart transplant at CMU...my mother drove across at 90 mph i believe...it was frightening


is the veranzo narrow one of the bridges connecting the Keys? uncle owned shrimpboat and would bring us down to the keys...beautiful
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Nice chatting - back to cleaning!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I really think the SW Caribbean disturbance wont develop. Looks like garbage and even the GFS doesnt develop it.

Doesn't the gfs develop it
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298. viman
Tampa right?
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297. ackee
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I really think the SW Caribbean disturbance wont develop. Looks like garbage and even the GFS doesnt develop it.
agree
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1376
Quoting zoomiami:
K8 - an experience you will probably never forget. Did something similar when trying to get on the Verazzano Narrows bridge - missed exit, could not figure out how to turn around, was back in the 80's when it was not a safe place to be. I prayed a lot too!



yes...neither of us will ever forget that....and then when my uncle had his heart transplant at CMU...my mother drove across at 90 mph i believe...it was frightening
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Finally got some rain in Cayman. Looks like a lot more to come. Winds SSE @25 mph. Pressure 1011 mb.
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Looks similar in design to the Sunshine Skyway - that bridge has always terrified me - hate driving it.

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hmmmm.... this makes me wonder if Patrap may be somehow involved....

Nagin "Shanghaied"

(CNN) -- The mayor of New Orleans, Louisiana, has been quarantined in China after possible exposure to the H1N1 virus, his office said Sunday.

Nagin, his wife and a member of his security detail have been quarantined in Shanghai, China,

Ceeon Quiett, the mayor's director of communications, told CNN ... there was no indication how long the quarantine would last

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/US/06/07/china.nagin.flu.virus/?iref=mpstoryview

CRS
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I really think the SW Caribbean disturbance wont develop. Looks like garbage and even the GFS doesnt develop it.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
K8 - an experience you will probably never forget. Did something similar when trying to get on the Verazzano Narrows bridge - missed exit, could not figure out how to turn around, was back in the 80's when it was not a safe place to be. I prayed a lot too!
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Patrap are you still on here? If so I posted several pictures from the air show yesterday. Hope you like them!
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Has moisture making its way to S. Florida with a very weak low.


Yeah, just what we need. More rain, sooner or later, we are going to be below sea level..
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
Looks like on the latest run of the GFS, for the first time in days it is not developing a tropical system in the western caribbean.


Has moisture making its way to S. Florida with a very weak low.
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Quoting presslord:
Zoo...Sav is correct...it's the Ravenel Bridge...connecting the Charleston Penninsula with Mt. Pleasant...which, btw, has no mountain...and is not particularly pleasant...but the bridge is a beaut...


Beautiful bridge pics. And Lol about Mt. Pleasant. Texas has a Mt. Pleasant too. We found that out on our way home from the Rita evac when Barney Fife gave us a speeding ticket. UGH! Lol. They must be sister cities.
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Yeah, and it was the evening round of storms that created havoc last night after the Marlins game. Crazy rain delay before the game and a monsoonal 5th-9th inning afterwards. But I swear South Floridians truly do not know how to drive in rainy weather.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Nice example of a line of demarcation between dry and moist air. Water vapor imagery shows it a lot better.


Sure is !

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Nice example of a line of demarcation between dry and moist air. Water vapor imagery shows it a lot better.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
the old Cooper River Bridge would scare the snot out of any sane person...
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91E bust
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071733
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 7 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting presslord:


before domolition of old bridges


you guys bring back memories with these pics...back in 1978 i think it was, my girlfriend drove across the old cooper river bridge by accident from mt pleasant...we couldnt turn around... had to keep going...i swear she had her eyes closed and was saying over and over "help me Jesus, help me Jesus... we were both about18 yrs old... then we got stuck in "little mexico" b4 we could figure how to get out of there
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DEEP CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP WITH OUR AREA OF INTEREST.
Member Since: June 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
thanks
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91E

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Quoting bballerf50:
When is the next MJO after the one later this month?


CFS says middle of July.
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When is the next MJO after the one later this month?
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We gotta invest in the EPAC- Link
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before domolition of old bridges
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Good afternoon everyone---Thought we might see some nasty thunderstorms here in Deerfield Beach but everything stayed offshore. Was a great beach day early on

Looking at the latest radar though there could be a second round of storms this evening.
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267. viman
just googled it -- highest recorded air temp was 57.8 °C (136 °F)Al 'Aziziyah, Libya
13 September 1922
highest recorded surface temperature was 70.7 °C (159.3 °F) in 2005 in the Lut desert, Iran.
Dang - I won't ever complain about the heat again. :)





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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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