Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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367. JRRP
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WeatherStudent, President, JFV...I thought your original aviatar was okay. Why all the crazy changes? This is the closest thing I could find to your original. You should just go back to how we all got to know you.

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />

he is Alfalfa
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Good Lord...now the local on the 8's isn't working.
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The dummy in the weather channel control room just went from a tornado forming to sun protection.

Screw the sun...I wanna see a tornado!!
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Possible tornado forming on the weather channel.
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I took a look at the shear maps, the shear is decreasing but still is hostile for development as NHC said.
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LATEST SURFACE CEN AMER/SW CARB
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
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Nagin, wife, staffer quarantined in China
by Darran Simon, The Times-Picayune
Sunday June 07, 2009, 5:00 PM


New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, his wife, Seletha, and a member of the mayor's entourage were being held in quarantine at a hotel in Shanghai after a passenger on Nagin's flight to China came down with suspected swine flu symptoms, a city spokeswoman said Sunday.



..."Man I dont feel so good bro,I shouldnt of ate that Moo-goo-Gai pan dish"...

Sheesh..

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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Does that mean that it's about to be declared an invest?


not necessarily JFV
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355. ackee
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Well, if the disturbance exists in a place where there's deep tropical moisture and winds coming together from different directions at the surface and strong winds aloft, it can create some fairly strong thunderstorms.
thanks
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1352
I just completed a Tropical Update if anyone would like to view.....

TampaSpins Tropical Update
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WeatherStudent, President, JFV...I thought your original aviatar was okay. Why all the crazy changes? This is the closest thing I could find to your original. You should just go back to how we all got to know you.

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11002
Quoting ackee:
can somebody explian this if shear is hostile in a area for development how come distrubance sometimes flair up with convection?


Well, if the disturbance exists in a place where there's deep tropical moisture and winds coming together from different directions at the surface and strong winds aloft, it can create some fairly strong thunderstorms.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
Preusre in Nicaraga is 1008 in some place and falling.
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350. ackee
can somebody explian this if shear is hostile in a area for development how come distrubance sometimes flair up with convection?
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1352
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Does that mean that it's about to be declared an invest?


Always a possibility.
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If that lasts for a while it'll be really interesting.. Not sure if it can with that nasty wind shear.
Sit back and watch the drama start ---- lol
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One other Skeeter tid bit for ya. There are several new repellents that are in testing. One of them, made from black pepper, is reported to provide several months of protection via one application. Kinda makes me wonder about that part, but if it works and is safe, it may change our world in that respect.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185


Some really cold cloudtops expanding coverage.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2316
from nothing it comes

AOI
MARK
13N/83W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Infrared showing some strong T-storms firing up...lets see if it will continue to do so tonight.
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A prudent move,Invest sure to follow,in 24-48 most likely
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Floater 1 is now being called "Test"...over Caribbean disturbance.
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It's hot in VA, too hot!

Hopefully this will be a 2006 like hurricane season
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Quoting ackee:
last year the CMC model was devolping lots of distrubance now it seem like the GFS will be doing that this year


Yea, normally the CMC is the king of cyclogenesis. It would take an isolated stray shower and drop it 100mb in 24 hours. I wonder if they've tightened up the algorithm modeling this year.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2316
www.getagameplan.org

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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
What we are focused on in here is providing the information to all, whether it happens or not so that people can prepare and are ready should anything happen. Saying that looking at a storm as it is right now and declaring that nothing is going to happen is just garbage. Preparation is the key to this season.

If you live in a hurricane prone area, you should be prepared whether or not one is formed or not. You should have a plan, you should have supplies, and shelters should have practiced already. Getting people excited about nothing is just as bad as ignoring a real storm. If people keep reacting to false alarms, then when the big one comes they may lose faith in the forecast, decide to ride it out and find themselves in trouble.
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Shear is our friend,..
always,

....in the GOM or EL Nino induced Mid Atlantic.
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Mosquito Control Devices and Services for Florida Homeowners1
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
329: Lol Patrap. And we hope it stays like that for the rest of the year.
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331. ackee
last year the CMC model was devolping lots of distrubance now it seem like the GFS will be doing that this year
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1352
They have been doing aerial spraying as of late, but certain areas.
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Satellite Imagery from the University of Miami
There is no endorsement of NWHHC by the University of Miami.

Loops are for informational purposes only. Please refer to local emergency management officials for official information

GOM and Below WV Loop or Wall-o-Shear

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What we are focused on in here is providing the information to all, whether it happens or not so that people can prepare and are ready should anything happen. Saying that looking at a storm as it is right now and declaring that nothing is going to happen is just garbage. Preparation is the key to this season.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Too much rain here brings on the worry of disease from a heavier than normal breeding season for mosquito's. So if we get round two of this rain, it could get interesting here.


Hopefully your county will come out and spray at least once a week if that becomes a problem.
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Welcome to the LSU Earth Scan Lab.

The ESL is a satellite data receiving station and image processing facility for environmental data from six unique earth observing sensor systems. ESL specializes in real-time access to satellite imagery and measurements of the atmosphere, oceans and coastal areas within the Gulf of Mexico / Caribbean Sea region, data which we obtain directly from satellite transmissions to three antennas on LSU rooftops. These data have many applications for research, education, and state emergency response.
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:
pressure dropping like a rock at the buoy

That is what happens when you have a thunderstorm outbreak.
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Quoting Makoto1:


You don't need a really organized system to bring rain though. Even a surge of tropical moisture could bring rain, which seems to be the biggest worry with the disturbance whether it forms or not.


I do not disagree with that. We will still see a lot of rain inthe south which is good. Hopefully we will get so much rain the risk of wildfires in the south this summer drop. All The lakes could use a refill as well. I have just been reading all week about how a lot of people are trying to turn fronts and dying lows into TDs or TSs. I just dont see it happeneing.
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Too much rain here brings on the worry of disease from a heavier than normal breeding season for mosquito's. So if we get round two of this rain, it could get interesting here.
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Quoting naplesdreamer28:
I am not discounting anything yet! This is the time of year when things happen unexpectedly and sudden, it's Hurricane season after all.
No-one expected Paloma last year either and this is the area she developed and pretty quickly too.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8272
Per earlier discussion of earthquakes... I looked up the National Earthquake Information Center, U.S. Geological Survey.
Link

They provide data for # earthquakes and magnitude for the years 1990-present.

I did a weighted average in Excel, multiplying the number of earthquakes x magnitudes for each year to get a weighted average. The trend (shown below) is sort of interesting.

1990: 16,612 # quakes---39,494 weighted score
1991: 16,516------------41,051
1992: 19,548------------50,226
1993: 21,476------------53,086
1994: 19,371------------53,476
1995: 21,007------------63,810
1996: 19,938------------62,084
1997: 19,872------------56,815
1998: 21,688------------61,721
1999: 20,832------------60,277
2000: 22,256------------62,853
2001: 23,534------------67,141
2002: 27,454------------76,287
2003: 31,419------------81,641
2004: 31,194------------89,859
2005: 30,478-----------101,922
2006: 29,568------------98,884
2007: 29,671------------96,544
2008: 30,183------------97,051

The largest increase has been in mid-level Mag. 3.0-5.0 earthquakes. Perhaps the increase has been due to better recording / detection. Still, it is interesting to note the past four years vs. the previous years. I don't know that better detection would account for a more than 50% increase.
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Rsweet, what I am talking about is not a storm forming. But having all that moisture make its way towards South Florida and give us round two of a monsoonal start to rainy season.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
I wouldnt hold your breath...nothing is going to form until the end of June at the earliest. Conditions just are not right. Check back in 2 weeks and we may have our first storm.


You don't need a really organized system to bring rain though. Even a surge of tropical moisture could bring rain, which seems to be the biggest worry with the disturbance whether it forms or not.
pressure dropping like a rock at the buoy

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.