Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
Same here stormchaser...went shopping right after work....Small World....(cue for Pat for You Tube video) :)
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Good grief. Lots of West Palm/Palm Springers on tonight.


Yeah seems that way.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


You live by Publix? I was just there earlier today.


Good grief. Lots of West Palm/Palm Springers on tonight.
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relax ws it will be what it will be soon enough
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Guys, did y'all know that the NHC has labled our SW Carib disturbance as a test region? Doesn't that typically lead to an invest declaration soon eough? Somebody on here told me a short while ago that it will. :)


Who knows. I'm really interested to see if some of this strong convection that has recently fired up, will persist overnight.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
lol...same here...i live behind the Publix in Palm Springs


You live by Publix? I was just there earlier today.
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I was at work in West Palm when the storms passed through...didn't know we had hail in our area.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
Quoting 305st0rm:

They'll go back to live as soon as they get a good angle ahead of that cell


Ah, thanks. I left the room for two minutes and missed that part.

I still think we're a few days at the very least from good enough conditions for any real development but watch me be wrong, lol
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
lol...same here...i live behind the Publix in Palm Springs


Funny...

Some real strong T-storms earlier, huh? Had hail and a lot of gusty winds.
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Quoting Makoto1:


Here they just moved to Storm Stories I think...

They'll go back to live as soon as they get a good angle ahead of that cell
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Quoting antonio28:
Thats is part of the SW Car. system it looks like is trying to develop. If shear still decending, still have a chance to develop, but right now is too much shear over it.


shear decreasing 5 to 10 over area with further slow decreasing over time
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
Thanks gator..I knew I had it wrong.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Weather Channel is blank for me also...cept for the kyrons.


Here they just moved to Storm Stories I think...
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lol...same here...i live behind the Publix in Palm Springs
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Weather Channel is blank for me also...cept for the kyrons.

"Chyrons"
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162
Weather Channel is blank for me also...cept for the Chyrons.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Don’t sweat it WPB…there have been nastier and more vindictive things said on the blog. It’s like the fingers typing and hitting the submit button before the brain realizes what is being posted. BTW, where in West Palm are you?


Palm Springs/Lake Worth area.
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hey pressy ya there
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
Thats is part of the SW Car. system it looks like is trying to develop. If shear still decending, still have a chance to develop, but right now is too much shear over it.
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393. 7544
well i guess we have to see the set of models for our carb feature stay tuned
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Don’t sweat it WPB…there have been nastier and more vindictive things said on the blog. It’s like the fingers typing and hitting the submit button before the brain realizes what is being posted. BTW, where in West Palm are you?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
Quoting Ossqss:
One other Skeeter tid bit for ya. There are several new repellents that are in testing. One of them, made from black pepper, is reported to provide several months of protection via one application. Kinda makes me wonder about that part, but if it works and is safe, it may change our world in that respect.


My girlfriend works for the USDA lab as a scientist that tests these repellents
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162
Quoting Makoto1:
They're on the move again, trying to get ahead of the storm again.


Really? Try to keep us updated...for some reason I don't get the weather channel right now.
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The weather Channel should be working......only problem is with mike bettes' video
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They're on the move again, trying to get ahead of the storm again.
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Quoting ackee:
can somebody explian this if shear is hostile in a area for development how come distrubance sometimes flair up with convection?


Heating throughout the day, general clustering of storms and shear dropping slightly over the area. When we say that things "cant" develop its not an absolute certainty. Mother Nature is Mother nature. Tropical systems are not supposed to strengthen over land however Tropical Storm Fay strengthened over the everglades last year.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162

Were Jamming..
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Mike Bettes has got some pretty rough stuff out there in oregon. I think they just lost Video
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My apologies Patrap, WeatherStudent and others.
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Mike Bettes meets the Diva Chaser's today..

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Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Now it works I think.Transitions commercial.


Only worked during the commercial. Back to black.
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Yes I cannot see anything it's just a black screen with the blue bar on the bottom of the screen showing my forecast.


Could you remove that quote, or edit it to what it now says? Thanks!
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ESL by LSU

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I'm seeing things fine outside of them trying to show the UV forecast every once in a while.
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Now it's not working again.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Alright now I'm pissed. Mike Bettes is in a severe T-storm with a possible tornado and I can't see it.

Is anyone else having weather channel problems?

Yes I cannot see anything it's just a black screen with the blue bar on the bottom of the screen showing my forecast.
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Lose the language friend,lotsa young folks pass thru here. TYVM
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Alright now I'm mad. Mike Bettes is in a severe T-storm with a possible tornado and I can't see it.

Is anyone else having weather channel problems?
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Well he is a member of our little WU "Our Gang" (or LIttle Rascals if you prefer)
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
JFV...456's thoughts are eloquently expressed in his blog...
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The Weather Channel's Mike Bettes takes you inside Tornado Alley with the Vortex2 project...Bette's Twitter page

TORNADOHUNT
CAPE= Convective Available Potential Energy. Gennerally higher cape=more supercells.
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a nice blow up around 14.5n/82.3w, if shear wasn't so high , things might start to happen fast with the SW Caribbean Disturbance.
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367. JRRP
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WeatherStudent, President, JFV...I thought your original aviatar was okay. Why all the crazy changes? This is the closest thing I could find to your original. You should just go back to how we all got to know you.

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />

he is Alfalfa
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.