Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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LOL...
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Quoting Ossqss:
391, Gator23,

She should be seeing them soon.

Link

Link


Thanks for links! I forwarded them to her!
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
465. IKE
Gee-whiz.....I'm glad I'm mellow:)
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Very nice Patrap, I need a bigger bottle of DEET ! Yikes
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
462. IKE
Shear is still too high down there...20-30 knots....if it would let up. According to the latest TWO, it's not suppose to.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
if you guys are going to start fighting overe some in Please keep it in the mail or in your own blog and not in here
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LOL Pat I know how thats like
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Definitely convection has increased over the area in the Caribbean Sea..Also noticed the National Hurricane Center has shifted their satellite over the area.Listed under (Test)
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I say it still needs more observation before calling it I mean it started this only today in the afternoon right?
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391, Gator23,

She should be seeing them soon.
Link

Link

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
Quoting gator23:


coming soon, people complaining that the NHC hasnt made this a Tropical Storm yet...


LMAO!!
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Despite our recent convection burst I still say that this wont develop. Its just a temporary convective complex. Should be gone by tomorrow.
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448. IKE
Quoting gator23:


coming soon, people complaining that the NHC hasnt made this a Tropical Storm yet...


LOL....C storm?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Alfalfa...I think your hats on to tight.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11547
Evening folks =D been fun seeing the caribbean disturbance tug of war

I stand neutral and watch and say Maybe =D
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Yes.


coming soon, people complaining that the NHC hasnt made this a Tropical Storm yet...
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
we are all intitle to our opinion here guys and iam not sayin it is for certain a invest area but if shear continues to fall and convection continues to blossom then invest 93Lis always possible

thanks vort i take no offense to your commets
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
Invest 93 in the making.
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Quoting vortfix:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
coming soon 93L


Yes.





NO!
been playin this game along time iam pretty good with this part vort ya know that i don't have to tell ya
it will be what ever it will be

wait watch see
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
Quoting vortfix:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
coming soon 93L


Yes.





NO!


Maybe? LOL sorry I just had to :3
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Stalemate at the Moment..King Shear vs the Entity..

GOM and Below WV Loop

Note the Yucatan T-storms blow off to the South
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latest shear shows decreasing by 20 just off shore of ne of nic in sw carb


putting you on the spot keeper...when????

if it persists till afer midnight then maybe shortly after that
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 07 Jun 2009 23:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.89 in and steady
Air Temperature: 79.9 F
Dew Point: 71.8 F
Water Temperature: 82.0 F

Closest Buoy
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430. 7544
maybe
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Very odd very intense convection.

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Same here stormchaser...went shopping right after work....Small World....(cue for Pat for You Tube video) :)


Have you been to the Sailfish marina lately? I havent been there in ages.
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putting you on the spot keeper...when????
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11547
A Blog fav..

A hurricane's "hot towers" can increase its intensity by adding power to boost the storm's heat engine. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations of these phenomena using a very fine temporal resolution. They have combined this new simulation data with satellite observations to study the innerworking of the "hot towers" in never-before-seen detail.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


looks like 30-40 kts to me
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coming soon 93L
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Thanks gator..I knew I had it wrong.


No Problem I work in television.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Really deep convection.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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