Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sfla82:


I lived behind that Publix for six years....Lake Arbor Dr!!!!


That's where I live! God...it is a small world on here tonight!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
Maybe..Like a Hurricane..?
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515. IKE
There is a nice blowup with the blob. I want to see what happens when the wave interacts with it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting KoritheMan:
I have to say though, vort does appear to be right about the lack of a surface feature within this area. IKE also appears to be right about the lack of any significant vorticity. This area, impressive as the recent convective burst is, is still very disorganized.
yes he is nothing there yet but to establish would not take much got to have that convection start to regenerate feeding off sst value air temp got to get below water temp to start that process

wait watch and see

it could as well get blown away as well
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting IKE:


I say give it a few more days and something will likely pop down there or points north to NE of there for an actual low.


According to the NHC, it already is a low, albeit broad and disorganized.

At any rate, yesterday I saw 456 post an excerpt from one of the TWD's. In it, a tropical wave was mentioned, and was forecast to move westward into the western Caribbean over the next several days. I would think that any real development, if we get any at all, would begin to occur then, when the tropical wave enters the area with our Caribbean AOI and increases moisture and vorticity.

Incidentally, that is how most June developments get started, is through a tropical wave interacting with a pre-existing area of disturbed weather. The most recent example of this phenomena is Arthur in 2008, which was not only born via Alma's mid-level circulation, but also through passage of a tropical wave, which enhanced convective activity in the vicinity of Belize.

As you said, give it time. Shear still looks rather prohibitive both now and in the future, however.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20568
512. JRRP
SST
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I agree , hope we get the much needed rain, but hopefully thats all, here in South Sound just barely a drizzle, but to the East looked like it was pouring.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Had a good rain in EE this afternoon and still black outside with a lot of lightning. Keep your fingers crossed nothing that all we get is some much needed rain.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
489 was

but beeb removed

likewise i remove mine as well


Sorry bout that i wasnt thinking.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
489 was

but been removed

likewise i remove mine as well
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Good Point. It has been deleted.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that fake shit is startin to piss me off ya shoiuld'nt be doing that not now or ever during cane season


Watch the language, keeper.

I enjoy reading your posts, and I wouldn't want language like that getting you banned.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20568
504. IKE
Quoting KoritheMan:
I have to say though, vort does appear to be right about the lack of a surface feature within this area. IKE also appears to be right about the lack of any significant vorticity. This area, impressive as the recent convective burst is, is still very disorganized.


I say give it a few more days and something will likely pop down there or points north to NE of there for an actual low.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that fake shit is startin to piss me off ya shoiuld'nt be doing that not now or ever during cane season



kids will be kids..and if not a kid..mentally!
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Quoting stormpetrol:


I agree with you on that one, this evening the sky had a terrible stormy look to it.
Had a good rain in EE this afternoon and still black outside with a lot of lightning. Keep your fingers crossed nothing that all we get is some much needed rain.
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please
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
499. IKE
Quoting futuremet:


Yes, the GFS did that with Dolly, Fay, Hanna.


Seems like it showed either Felix or Dean, which I believe were both cat 5's, as 1004 mb's.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I have to say though, vort does appear to be right about the lack of a surface feature within this area. IKE also appears to be right about the lack of any significant vorticity. This area, impressive as the recent convective burst is, is still very disorganized.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20568
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting stormpetrol:


I agree with you on that one, this evening the sky had a terrible stormy look to it.

still no rain here :(
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting gator23:
GHOST STORM UPDATE.

Cat 5 Ana will be bearing down on SE Florida 168 hours from now. As a result the NHC has issued a TROPICAL STORM WARNING for SE Florida. and a Hurricane Warning for NOLA members of the blog. Miami-Dade Expressway Authority has closed all bridge traffic. Metro-Rail will be operating at normal hours before, during and after the storm. In Sum the end of the world in 7 days.

Forecaster PASCH



you know there are weather noobs that browse these forums and might actually think your serious on this fake post!
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494. IKE
Interesting Tampa,FL. afternoon long-term discussion...

".LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOT HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ANCHORS ITSELF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
90 NEAR THE COAST AND MID 90S INLAND EACH DAY. THE U/L RIDGE WILL
LIKELY HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN. MODELS
VERY INCONSISTENT ON WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK...BUT IT COULD
INCREASE MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD INCREASE
POPS AND LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. CURRENT FORECAST WILL HOLD
RIDGE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON TRACK OF SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting WeatherStudent:


I ain't no troll, hopefully you'll get banned for making this disgraceful remark about me.


What? o_O

I was talking about vortfix, not you. o_O
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20568
Quoting IKE:


I've seen the GFS show actually strong TS's as 1008 mb's or even weaker.

I look for them more for track...when their actually developed. Dolly was near cat3



Yes, the GFS did that with Dolly, Fay, Hanna, and others--I forgot the rest.
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Quoting StonedCrab:
Just wanted to jump in say Hello to my friends. Been lurking since 6/1.

Howdy!


Welcome!
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Just wanted to jump in say Hello to my friends. Been lurking since 6/1.

Howdy!
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487. IKE
Quoting 7544:
ok now the new gfs runs brings it back to se fla this time but not very strong see here

Link


I've seen the GFS show actually strong TS's as 1008 mb's or even weaker.

I look for them more for track...when their actually developed.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting 7544:
ok now the new gfs runs brings it back to se fla this time but not very strong see here

Link


Still way too early for this.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


You live by Publix? I was just there earlier today.


I lived behind that Publix for six years....Lake Arbor Dr!!!!
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Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
482. 7544
ok now the new gfs runs brings it back to se fla this time but not very strong see here

Link
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It's making a good effort and all I got to say is it's a little too close for comfort to me.


I agree with you on that one, this evening the sky had a terrible stormy look to it.
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Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting vortfix:
that convection is caused by diffluence...the cause of which I already posted.
It is diurnally driven and will slack off tonight.

There is no surface feature in the western Caribbean...NONE!



I know that is why i said "after midnight"
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
.
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Quoting IKE:


Their the experts, but just one look at the shear should tell you it's not going to blow up fast.

Could it be an invest right now? It's pretty close. But it has no vorticity.

This could take a while, if ever.


Also agreed. We will have to wait and see. If after midnight we still have convection I will be on board with the death of the Ghost Storm and the birth of an Invest.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
It's making a good effort and all I got to say is it's a little too close for comfort to me.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Ikster, does Mother Nature listen, let alone does she actually obey the daily NHC TWO's which they post?


agreed please see my previous entry about Tropical Storm Fay and the Everglades
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
470. IKE
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Ikster, does Mother Nature listen, let alone does she actually obey the daily NHC TWO's which they post?


Their the experts, but just one look at the shear should tell you it's not going to blow up fast.

Could it be an invest right now? It's pretty close. But it has no 850 mb vorticity.

This could take a while, if ever.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
LOL...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.