Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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567. TheCaneWhisperer
1:53 AM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting IKE:
That blob has some cold cloud tops.


Easy to bite, not being tied to any sea breeze ect.. 10kts of shear is creeping up from below. It's the biggest thing going in the Caribbean right now. Not doing it though.
565. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:52 AM GMT on June 08, 2009


latest IR from hoot
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
564. sporteguy03
1:52 AM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting melwerle:
Hi kids - long weekend. Anything new that you can update me on so I don't have to read back 700 pages?



The Disturbance is still there still not sure if it will develop or not maybe increased rain chances end of the week for Cuba, Jamaica, Caymans. Beyond that anyone's guess.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
563. Orcasystems
1:51 AM GMT on June 08, 2009
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
562. GeoffreyWPB
1:51 AM GMT on June 08, 2009
Guess all the big-gun bloggers are off tonight...Probally waiting to see what happens in the next few days.
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561. stormwatcherCI
1:51 AM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting IKE:
That blob has some cold cloud tops.
What does that signify ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
560. Orcasystems
1:51 AM GMT on June 08, 2009
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
559. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:49 AM GMT on June 08, 2009


latest WV from hoot
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
558. IKE
1:48 AM GMT on June 08, 2009
That blob has some cold cloud tops.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
557. melwerle
1:48 AM GMT on June 08, 2009
Hi kids - long weekend. Anything new that you can update me on so I don't have to read back 700 pages?

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
556. TheCaneWhisperer
1:45 AM GMT on June 08, 2009


Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Most of the islands with the exception of Jamaica are very small so I don't htink they will do too much to inhibit anything.


That strong belt of westerlies is the Sub Tropical jet that is forecast to move north with and allow the storm to form. The jet is very visible in all satellite imagery just to the North and West of the AOI.
555. sporteguy03
1:45 AM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting vortfix:
that extended discussion from Melbourne is from:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2009


SAT-SUN...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TROPICS TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS IS A LONG WAY
OUT BUT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY...IF SYSTEM PANS OUT...THEN WE WOULD
BE IN FOR A WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE TRENDED POPS
BACK TOWARDS CLIMO...30-40 PERCENT WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST MOS VALUES.




Way outdated!

they will update soon.



Yep I know, I just wanted to make sure Ike did not forget about the Central Floridians :) lol.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
553. WPBHurricane05
1:43 AM GMT on June 08, 2009
The big thing with Barry and Allison was the rain. Got 8 inches in 12 hours from Barry since the shear was blowing all the rain toward Florida.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
552. KoritheMan
1:40 AM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well.. all I have to say is Barry.


While true, I believe that conditions were more favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the northwest Caribbean, which, incidentally, is where Barry began as a tropical depression.

It was when it entered the Gulf of Mexico, that upper-level shear became extremely prohibitive. Obviously, Barry still managed to generate deep convection near its center, and gain a pressure below 1000 mb, along with 60 mph surface winds, but don't forget how quickly Barry fell apart, and how even at its peak, its center was still largely exposed, due to the southwesterly shear.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
551. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:39 AM GMT on June 08, 2009
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
549. beell
Still a fairly consistent signal of weakness from the Caribbean up the Atlantic coast at the surface and up a bit from there on the east side of the mid-upper trough stretching from the Gulf of Honduras to the NE. The GFS has been stuck on this for several days worth of model runs. The A/B High pulling back towards the eastern Atlantic. A timing thing for sure.

All 3-Sea Level Pressure (SLP)
12Z CMC @ 66 Hours

18Z GFS @ 60 Hours

12Z NOGAPS @ 66 Hours
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
I don't know that is quite an impressive flare up and has lasted some hours now.
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547. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
From NWS Melbourne to Ike, lol:

Sat-sun...this portion of the forecast depends on the evolution of
a low pressure center that the GFS/European model (ecmwf) have been showing moving
northward out of the tropics towards the state. This is a long way
out but with a weakness in the subtropical ridge forecast to
remain in the vicinity...if system pans out...then we would
be in for a wet period by early next week. Have trended probability of precipitation
back towards climatology...30-40 percent which is in agreement with the
latest MOS values.


Hey....you beat me....LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
546. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike,
Lets go Melbourne, FL discussion, lol :)


Hmmm.....

Melbourne,FL. discussion.....

"SAT-SUN...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TROPICS TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS IS A LONG WAY
OUT BUT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY...IF SYSTEM PANS OUT...THEN WE WOULD
BE IN FOR A WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE TRENDED POPS
BACK TOWARDS CLIMO...30-40 PERCENT WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST MOS VALUES."......




Jackson,MS. extended talked about a cold front making it into the SE the end of next week. I can see why the GFS and ECMWF are predicting the low to move out of the Caribbean.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well.. all I have to say is Barry.



True. Link

TS Allison in 2001 is a good example also.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Yeah I thought you forgot about Central FL, lol we are like the turkey I feel in the sandwich you have South Florida to the South and Northern FL to the North:)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Thanks. Keep trying but can't figure out how to do it. Not too great on the computer. My grandkids are a lot better at it than I am.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
541. beell
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Most of the islands with the exception of Jamaica are very small so I don't htink they will do too much to inhibit anything.


I was thinking more like Cuba.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
Quoting hurricane23:


conditions look hostile for the next couple of days.


Well.. all I have to say is Barry.
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Quoting MeterologistDewon9:
why is an tropical disturbance labeled as Test by NHC on the Satellite Page?


Ummm maybe they are testing something?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
why is an tropical disturbance labeled as Test by NHC on the Satellite Page?
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Ike,
Lets go Melbourne, FL discussion, lol :)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
Quoting beell:
Howdy,
The tropical wave along 64W should be in the area by early Wednesday-as a guess. Of course anything moving up this way out of the Caribbean would have to cross a strong belt of Westerlies along 20N and an Island or two.
Most of the islands with the exception of Jamaica are very small so I don't htink they will do too much to inhibit anything.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't know how to post an image but check out the latest WV image. Looking very ominous.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting hurricane23:


conditions look hostile for the next couple of days.


This.

I just looked at the forecast shear from several of the computer models for the next several days, and upper-level conditions will remain extremely hostile, with only a few localized breaks in the shear at random points throughout the forecast period.

I don't really see how anything will get going from this over the next few days.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
533. beell
Howdy,
The tropical wave along 64W should be in the area by early Wednesday-as a guess. Of course anything moving up this way out of the Caribbean would have to cross a strong belt of Westerlies along 20N and an Island or two.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
As we all know...models do not work out as planned...

img src="" alt="" />
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11518
531. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
things could get quite interesting


Here's the long-range NO,LA discussion that mentions a possible cold front working into the SE next weekend. That might give the blob a final nudge north or NNE that the ECMWF and GFS are showing...

"LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. BY FRI THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MDLS WITH THE HANDLING OF A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CNTRL CONUS WHICH COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO AREA LATE FRI AND INTO
SAT IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT. THE GFS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT
LATELY SO I WILL STICK CLOSER TO IT GOING WITH A DRY FCST AND ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. OVERALL NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE THINKING. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THROUGH MID WEEK AND AS A
DISTURBANCE IS EJECTED OUT OF BAJA/DESERT SW REGION THE RIDGE WILL
START TO FLATTEN OUT SOME BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS COULD
BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUT AT THIS TIME I
THINK IT MAY STALL JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF
RAIN OUT OF THE CWA. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT AND THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED IT WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO OUR
AREA AND WE COULD SEE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN BUT I WOULD NOT HOLD
MY BREATH. AS FOR TEMPS LL TEMPS WILL BE RATHER WARM AND WITH
SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY LOOK HIGHS TO BE ON THE WARM END ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES ABV NORMAL."

"
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Didn't the GFS forecast the tropical feature interacting with the wave a few days ago. I think it def. hinted at it...
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Quoting IKE:
There is a nice blowup with the blob. I want to see what happens when the wave interacts with it.


conditions look hostile for the next couple of days.
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I don't know how to post an image but check out the latest WV image. Looking very ominous.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436

AOI #1

AOI #2

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting IKE:
There is a nice blowup with the blob. I want to see what happens when the wave interacts with it.
things could get quite interesting
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
I notice most of the strong convection is moving a little south of East, keeping below the strongest shear, this might give it a chance to get going , who knows?
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
am looking for word too monday ENSO
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Quoting 7544:
ok now the new gfs runs brings it back to se fla this time but not very strong see here

Link



Wednesday would be a good day to start looking at the models. Let's see if this little area of deep convection is able to make it 24 hours. If we make it that far, then we'll start looking for a dominant surface feature.
For any of you south Floridians including me that want rain should maybe read this.Perhaps this would change the undeceivable minds of ours.LoL
Link
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I started using Firefox on one of my PC's by virtue of some on this blog. Interesting stuff. They have incorporated many items in the last year in there relating to the link. I was interested by virtue of watching the linkages in Firefox referencing google analytics at the bottom of the pages. Interesting things about the big brother effect eh?

Does anyone know more about this item and the firefox plugin? Just so I can get my weather the right way :)

analytics
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
519. IKE
From the Key west afternoon discussion....

"MONDAY-SUNDAY...THE MESOSCALE WILL GOVERN DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT RAINFALL PATTERNS ACROSS THE
AREA. LOOK FOR LOWER KEYS CUMULUS LINES...SOME WATERSPOUTS...AND
DAILY LIGHTNING THREATS. AT THE SURFACE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY AND LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A FEW DAYS OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE IN THE MIDDLE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BE
AVAILABLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting vortfix:
You bozos!
You quoted Keeper's comment!!

Please delete them before he gets whacked!

i'll take it if thats what comes i'am a man i can handle it vort

your good friend
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting sfla82:


I lived behind that Publix for six years....Lake Arbor Dr!!!!


That's where I live! God...it is a small world on here tonight!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11518

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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