Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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617. IKE
Quoting Vortex95:
Friday night they expect 76mph winds hah! definatly a glitch.


OMG....WU shouldn't even post that....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting gator23:


76MPH for Friday? I dont think I have ever seen Hurricane Force winds put quite so midly.

On Wednesday the wind messed up my cricket game :(
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Wow some cold cloud tops here:

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Quoting Orcasystems:


And just to add to the fun.. Gasp... its almost in Hebert #2


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rB8HudfbaTE
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20564
Stir the pot why don't ya Orca, lol.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Wow, that low has a lot of convection!

But most likely it won't become a TD because of conservative NHC.

Still, I say it might be an Invest tommorow night or Tuesday.


I don't think it has the requirements to be a TD yet. Not so much they are conservative.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5306
Monday
Thunderstorm. High: 86 °F . Wind ESE 42 mph . Chance of precipitation 70% (water equivalent of 0.42 in). Heat Index: 91 °F .


How could there be .42 inches of rain, if there is a 30% chance it doesn't rain??
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
According to that 76MPH for Friday in Jaimaica? I dont think I have ever seen Hurricane Force winds put quite so mildly.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Quoting gator23:
is there a weather radar in Honduras we can access? I know we had Cuba radar last year.

They fixed the kingston radar and then it broke again a week later :)
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

whoa, that doesn't look good. In for a windy day tommorow

They obviously messed that one up...imagine a whole week of gales...
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Quoting sporteguy03:
Forecast for Monday in Kingston
Thunderstorm. High: 86 °F . Wind ESE 42 mph . Chance of precipitation 70% (water equivalent of 0.42 in). Heat Index: 91 °F .
Talk about bad hair day!


Wind East 76 mph

Slight overdoing of forecast winds?
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And just to add to the fun.. Gasp... its almost in Hebert #2

Sorry.. couldn't resist
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting sporteguy03:
Forecast for Monday in Kingston
Thunderstorm. High: 86 °F . Wind ESE 42 mph . Chance of precipitation 70% (water equivalent of 0.42 in). Heat Index: 91 °F .
Talk about bad hair day!

luckily I got mine cut
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I hope that is a typo, lol.
600. IKE
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

whoa, that doesn't look good. In for a windy day tommorow


Not sure I believe those winds. What is he smoking?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
is there a weather radar in Honduras we can access? I know we had Cuba radar last year.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Quoting IKE:


According to the forecast for Kingston posted on this website, not good.


Tropical Storm force winds all week?? Might be a glitch there.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Wow, that low has a lot of convection!

But most likely it won't become a TD because of conservative NHC.

Still, I say it might be an Invest tommorow night or Tuesday.

on the satellite page they classify it as a "test"
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Forecast for Monday in Kingston
Thunderstorm. High: 86 °F . Wind ESE 42 mph . Chance of precipitation 70% (water equivalent of 0.42 in). Heat Index: 91 °F .
Talk about bad hair day!
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5306
What the?

Forecast for Kingston Jamacia

Friday Night
Thunderstorm. Low: 78 °F . Wind East 76 mph . Chance of precipitation 80% (water equivalent of 0.66 in). Heat Index: 93 °F .
Quoting IKE:


According to the forecast for Kingston posted on this website, not good.

whoa, that doesn't look good. In for a windy day tommorow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, that low has a lot of convection!

But most likely it won't become a TD because of conservative NHC.

Still, I say it might be an Invest tommorow night or Tuesday.
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Quoting StormW:
Good evening.


Howdy Chief, Perhaps you can help with the understanding of how the changing ENSO affects model performance. I can't seem to get a feel from anyone as to how a transitioning environment is handled within any model construction in general

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
590. IKE
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

What would this blob mean for Jamaica


According to the forecast for Kingston posted on this website, not good.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting sporteguy03:

If it were over it very heavy rain maybe gusty winds not something you want to be outside in :)

you got that right :). Gustav was really bad
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
So who is predicting official Invest by tomorrow morning?


If the convection holds, maybe Tuesday.


funktop
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

What would this blob mean for Jamaica

If it were over it very heavy rain maybe gusty winds not something you want to be outside in :)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5306
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53805
Florida is going to get alot of rain from this know matter what it does.
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Quoting IKE:


Rough weather....thunderstorms...possible heavy rain. Beyond that, I'm not sure....

What would this blob mean for Jamaica
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if it starts spinning
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53805
So who is predicting official Invest by tomorrow morning?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11150


Infrared NHC Enhancement - North Atlantic -> GOES-East
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
That's a nice looking blob.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53805
Quoting IKE:


Rough weather....thunderstorms...possible heavy rain. Beyond that, I'm not sure....
Thank you. Always intersted in the weather but LOTS to learn.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8360
572. beell
Hello, StormW
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16606
570. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What does that signify ?


Rough weather....thunderstorms...possible heavy rain. Beyond that, I'm not sure....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Link

looking impressive
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
If this were August or September...looking at that IR..I'd say yikes!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11150
Quoting IKE:
That blob has some cold cloud tops.


Easy to bite, not being tied to any sea breeze ect.. 10kts of shear is creeping up from below. It's the biggest thing going in the Caribbean right now. Not doing it though.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.