Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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There is a strong NE jet in the NW Caribbean that is producing diffluent conditions in the SW Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. This is aiding the blow up of convection that we are seeing there.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Acemmett90:

IN ny just got back form palm beach i go every weekend


You go to Palm Beach every weekend?? Good Lord...are you a millionaire?

I'm lucky if I can afford the week's groceries.
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Quoting Acemmett90:

IN ny just got back from palm beach i go every weekend

oh
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting gator23:


Rising? Crazy? Link?


Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 08 Jun 2009 01:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (80°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.89 in and rising
Air Temperature: 80.1 F
Dew Point: 72.3 F
Water Temperature: 82.0 F
Quoting IKE:


But compared to 24 hours ago, it's down around 1 MB and the pressure has been steady the last 3 hours.


Thanks for the BU Ike.. also ??able being so far away. Not much available data from down there.
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661. IKE
NAM 00Z has a rather healthy AOI at 60 hours...



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Acemmett90:
AHHHH!!!!! just Got off the Plane and i see this What the keck is going on?

where are you
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting StormW:


Actually, I've never looked into it. But from what I can tell, the different models are picking up the signals...we can notice where all the rain is falling now, or where the models are putting the rain, models inducing trof splits, you can pick up on the SJT, THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT in a few days (Caribbean system...June). So in my interpretation, the models are reacting to the change in heat distibrution as the El Nino keeps coming on. Always keep in mind with models, or wx for that matter...heat = energy. That's why sometimes the GFS has such a time with feedback issues...it wants to build, or shall I see it sees heat in the tropics, so it wants to develop a tropical entity to get rid of the heat. It did fairly well last year though on cyclogenesis.


Very much appreciated StormW. I could not find any info on the subject, and thought it kinda important since we have many that watch them very closely.

I was simply trying to instill some confidence, for myself, in what we see from the models and mitigate any possible deficiency relating to the influence of what is happening with the transition. :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Thanks for Link!
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Quoting gator23:


Rising? Crazy? Link?

Link
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
650. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike a test Floater?


That's what they say...what it means I don't know. It's a floater.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting winter123:
Hey, I've started my own blog with what I think are a number of improvements over other tropics blogs I have seen. Please drop in and tell me what you think! Good or bad!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/winter123/show.html


Blogg looks to be okay. One thing, that model run of bringin a storm to the East coast looks to be good to me, cuz i live on the east coast!
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Quoting sporteguy03:
Anyone notice NHC Floater 1 test is now over the Caribbean disturbance?


Ike posted it earlier
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162
Ike a test Floater?
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Quoting winter123:
Hey, I've started my own blog with what I think are a number of improvements over other tropics blogs I have seen. Please drop in and tell me what you think! Good or bad!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/winter123/show.html


Your blog looks nice, except that I find it unlikely, based on what I've looked at today, that the Caribbean system is going to move inland into Central America.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19890
Low level convergence and upper level divergence not very impressive with the blob at this time.

Quikscat will miss that area this evening so not much data to go on.

Persistence is the key. Let's see what it looks like tomorrow
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Pressures are rising in the area.


Rising? Crazy? Link?
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162
Anyone notice NHC Floater 1 test is now over the Caribbean disturbance?
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639. IKE
They have a test floater on it....Link

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Even with the blow up of convection...it will still be yellow at 2:00 a.m. As others have mentioned, this flare up will have to be sustained for a period of time.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I swear, next person that calls the NHC overly conservative just because they want to make sure they get their numbers right gets the good ole ''!''.
NHC has the right to name the storms, they have 2x more data than we have in front of them and they have .P.h.Ds, some of them post-docs compared to them we're football fans just watching from home.


The NHC is an overly conservative bunch of... *gets shot*
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19890
Pressures are rising in the area.
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.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162
Hey, I've started my own blog with what I think are a number of improvements over other tropics blogs I have seen. Please drop in and tell me what you think! Good or bad!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/winter123/show.html
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
evening kman


Hi Keeper

How's it going ?. Looks like some potential excitement on the way. For myself, I will wait 24 hours to see if this blow up sustains itself.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I swear, next person that calls the NHC overly conservative just because they want to make sure they get their numbers right gets the good ole ''!''.
NHC has the right to name the storms, they have 2x more data than we have in front of them and they have .P.h.Ds, some of them post-docs compared to them we're football fans just watching from home.


Yes but I have this blog and WSVN's Phill Ferro.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162

wv image
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
If this convection is still there in the morning then we have something.
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I swear, next person that calls the NHC overly conservative just because they want to make sure they get their numbers right gets the good ole ''!''.
NHC has the right to name the storms, they have 2x more data than we have in front of them and they have .P.h.Ds, some of them post-docs compared to them we're football fans just watching from home.
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Quoting IKE:


LOL...I never looked at the winds before I posted that, just the near insane precip chances was what caught my eye.


Tell me about it. 70% Chance of rain with 76mph winds. Never mind that the wind is high but with that amount of wind im pretty sure its 100 percent chance of rain
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162
evening kman
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting gator23:


LOL!

It was funny
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
623. IKE
Quoting gator23:


Well maybe if it worked they wouldn't be forecasting 76mph winds...


LOL...I never looked at the winds before I posted that, just the near insane precip chances was what caught my eye.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

On Wednesday the wind messed up my cricket game :(


LOL!
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162
Good evening folks

Well, blob watching time is here it seems.

Still, conditions aloft are not that favourable for development.

While the blow up is impressive remember that you need to watch for sustained convection over a proloned period coupled with the right atmospheric ingredients.

June cyclones typically require several days to organize and the deep convection will likely come and go.

Too early IMO to make any calls as to the likelihood of development but we sure could use the rain in the Caymans.

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You would think WU would have some type of filter in place.
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Quoting extreme236:
Wow some cold cloud tops here:



Off the charts my friend.
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

They fixed the kingston radar and then it broke again a week later :)


Well maybe if it worked they wouldn't be forecasting 76mph winds...
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617. IKE
Quoting Vortex95:
Friday night they expect 76mph winds hah! definatly a glitch.


OMG....WU shouldn't even post that....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.