El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1775 - 1725

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

1775. Patrap
Evening Chief StormW
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127679
1772. Patrap
That was a really quick "poof".

#1778 poofed for Obvious reasons.

Lub dat feature.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127679
I got one for you guys....Image if a forcaster said this:

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HOLY CRAP DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEPT 8 2020

A NEW CATEGORY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WE NOW HAVE HURRICANE HOLY CRAP AT CATEGORY 6. WINDS ARE AT 460 MPH AND EXTEND OUTWARD 900 MILES.

NO NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS JUST GET THE "F" OUT!!!!

$$$ FORCASTER ME

LOL that would stink!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1770. Patrap
I noticed the K reference at the end of er,that...too.

I still cant read the comments from the 28th - the period,as I am am all to familiar how things went after 5 am the 29th.

And I didnt even know what blogging was then.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127679
1769. TX2FL
You forgot to erase Katrina from that last paragraph....

Bringing back memories..can you imagine again??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1767. Patrap
Katrina stronger than Camille

Posted by: JeffMasters, 5:52 PM CDT on August 28, 2005
The 6:30pm EDT NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission found a central pressure of 904 mb, up from the 902 measured at 3:30pm. These pressures make Katrina the fourth strongest hurricane ever, and the strongest hurricane ever observed in the Gulf of Mexico, surpassing Camille. However, the winds of Katrina are 165 mph, far from Camille's 190 mph winds at landfall.

Although the pressure has stopped falling, there is no indication that Katrina is about to undergo weakening, like we saw yesterday during her eyewall replacement cycle. When that cycle started, the eye diameter was 9 nm, but the present eye diameter is 28 nm. Eyewall replacement cycles usually begin when the eye shrinks below 10 nm, and there are no indications that Katrina's eye is going to shrink.

The list of strongest hurricanes of all time now reads:

Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb, 1988)

The Great Labor Day Hurricane (892 mb, 1935)

Hurricane Allen (899 mb, 1980)

Hurricane Katrina (902 mb, 2005)

Hurricane Camille (905 mb, 1969)

Landfall location and intensity
Katrina has continued to expand in size, and now rivals Hurricane Gilbert and Hurricane Allen as the largest hurricanes in size. When hurricanes reach such enormous sizes, they tend to create their own upper-air environment, making them highly resistant to external wind shear. The global computer models are not really hinting at any wind shear that might affect Katrina before landfall, and the only thing that might weaken her is an eyewall replacement cycle. Even if one of these happens in the next 12 hours, the weakest Katrina is likely to get before landfall is a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. Katrina is so huge and powerful that she will still do incredible damage even at this level. The track forecast has not changed significantly, and the area from New Orleans to the Mississippi-Louisiana border is going to get a catastrophic blow. I put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%. This scenario, which has been discussed extensively in literature I have read, could result in a death toll in the thousands, since many people will be unable or unwilling to get out of the city. I recommend that if you are trapped in New Orleans tomorrow, that you wear a life jacket and a helmet if you have them. High rise buildings may offer good refuge, but Katrina has the potential to knock down a high-rise building. A 25 foot storm surge and 30 - 40 foot high battering waves on top of that may be able to bring down a steel-reinforced high rise building. I don't believe a high rise building taller than six stories has ever been brought down by a hurricane, so this may not happen Monday, either. We are definitely in unknown waters with Katrina.

I have focused on New Orleans in much of my discussions about this storm, but Katrina will do tens of billions in damage all along the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Mobile Bay could well see a 10-foot storm surge. And inland areas will take heavy damage as well; Katrina will still be a hurricane 180 miles inland, and cause widespread flooding throughout the Tennessee Valley.

My thoughts and prayers go out to all of you in Katrina's way, and I urge all readers of this blog to do the same.

Jeff Masters

NOAA Impact Map


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127679
1766. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
looks like we are having some fun
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Deleted.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2009hurricane:



I changed it


Dont worry its no big deal...I mess up my words often.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
post 1746,
Brilliant, Cybr.


Only took me bout 2 seconds to wip one up rofl.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23632
Quoting 2009hurricane:
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL

BASED ON DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE
JUST RETURNING FROM ITS MISSION IN WILMA...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 858 MB...25.51 INCHES.


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not looking so good. We'll see how it does during diurnal max.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2009hurricane:
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENZO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2013

...LORENZO VERY LARGE MAINTAINING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...RECORD PRESSURE
CONFIRMED BY AIRCRAFT CREW...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE LORENZO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...
550 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 205 MPH...320 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LORENZO IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES... 220 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 235 MILES...535 KM.

BASED ON DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE
JUST RETURNING FROM ITS MISSION IN WILMA...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 858 MB...25.51 INCHES. THIS IS THE
LOWEST PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...205
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 858 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$
NNNN
oops
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8279
So is it Lorenzo or Wilma????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1755. pottery
post 1746,
Brilliant, Cybr.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was reading an article on the Big Red Spot on Jupiter. They said that if Earth were placed in it, everything would decimate in a matter of seconds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shoot I don't even remember were I found it, but it was there they copied it off Hurricane Isabels advisory.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23632
More like the blog would say "Internet Server too Busy!" if it was too happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1750. Makoto1
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 1015 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...

rofl 90 mph winds here yay

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE LAKE ERIE COAST FROM TOLEDO TO ERIE...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


By enduring 100000+ advisories being posted again and again on this blog for the past 4 years.


Cyber, Mail.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2009hurricane:



WOW!! How do you do that?



You copy an advisory and edit it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2009hurricane:



WOW!! How do you do that?


By enduring 100000+ advisories being posted again and again on this blog for the past 4 years.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23632
Quoting CybrTeddy:
000
WTNT33 KNHC 180228
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EXAMPLE ADVISORY NUMBER 68
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2013

..HURRICANE HUMBERTO BECOMES THE LARGEST AND STRONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE EVER RECORDED..

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GALVESTON TEXAS TO MIAMI FLORIDA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF SAN PADRE ISLAND AND NORTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

AT 500 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH AN DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED PRIOR
TO LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER A LARGE AREA
WELL BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTLINE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 200 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 1015 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 3150 MILES. A BUOY LOCATED WEST OF THE HURRICANE RECENTLY REPORTED
WIND GUSTS TO 174 MPH AND 132 FOOT WAVES.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 856 MB...28.23 INCHES. THIS MAKES HUMBERTO THE STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER RECORDED BEATING OUT SUPER TYPHOON TIPS RECORD SET BACK IN 1979 AND HURRICANE WILMAS ATLANTIC RECORD SET BACK IN 2005.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 50 TO 68 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH EXTREMELY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 40 TO 50 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS EXPECTED IN NEW ORLEANS AND THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF ADJACENT
RIVERS.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH HUMBERTO

THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION 26.9 N... 89.0 W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...856 MB

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER CYBRTEDDY

This is an example of me making up one.

Hhahahahaha nice forecast!That would be the end for N.O.Thankfully that would never happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If that ever happend in 2013.. this blog would be exploding.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23632
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Okay and?Is the wave expected to become a low too or is it going to help provide the low in the SW Car?


Provide moisture and mid-level energy

===================================================

Shear continues to slowly decrease



===========================================

QuikSCAT will likely miss the area but no signs of a partial circulation



BBL
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1740. JRRP
what is AOI?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT33 KNHC 180228
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EXAMPLE ADVISORY NUMBER 68
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2013

..HURRICANE HUMBERTO BECOMES THE LARGEST AND STRONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE EVER RECORDED..

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GALVESTON TEXAS TO MIAMI FLORIDA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF SAN PADRE ISLAND AND NORTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

AT 500 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH AN DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED PRIOR
TO LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER A LARGE AREA
WELL BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTLINE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 200 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 1015 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 3150 MILES. A BUOY LOCATED WEST OF THE HURRICANE RECENTLY REPORTED
WIND GUSTS TO 174 MPH AND 132 FOOT WAVES.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 856 MB...28.23 INCHES. THIS MAKES HUMBERTO THE STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER RECORDED BEATING OUT SUPER TYPHOON TIPS RECORD SET BACK IN 1979 AND HURRICANE WILMAS ATLANTIC RECORD SET BACK IN 2005.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 50 TO 68 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH EXTREMELY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 40 TO 50 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS EXPECTED IN NEW ORLEANS AND THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF ADJACENT
RIVERS.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH HUMBERTO

THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION 26.9 N... 89.0 W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...856 MB

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER CYBRTEDDY

This is an example of me making up one.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23632
1737. Makoto1
lol "hurricane example" was infinitely more epic for the warnings from South Carolina to northern New Jersey. It can't hit that much when going NNW to NW can it? Sad.

Yay examples though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Weird...when I looked at the public advisory example, it has Tropical Storm Example hitting Florida.

TROPICAL STORM EXAMPLE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2009

...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH EXAMPLE SOAKING FLORIDA...MORE TO COME...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF KEATON BEACH TO ST.
MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IN THIS CASE...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EXAMPLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 270
MILES...440 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

EXAMPLE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS BUT THE CYCLONE SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT
TERM BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS *XX* FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE *ZZZZ* OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
THE SURGE COULD PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS ABOUT *YY* MILES FROM
THE SHORE WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES
INLAND.

EXAMPLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.7N 84.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting Weather456:
Our tropical wave might become a player after all

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CAN BE FOUND IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N82W AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW EAST TO 11N80W 12N75W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE CAN BE FOUND OVER THIS REGION...WEDGED BETWEEN THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH HONDURAS AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FOUND WITHIN 150 NM N QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM N OF
THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY MAKE ITS WAY WESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...REACHING 70W BY MON MORNING.

Okay and?Is the wave expected to become a low too or is it going to help provide the low in the SW Car?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:
456, strike that wave up as an AOI.


A player in the WCaribbean development, not as an entity by itself.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No ROFL, thats straight from the NHC site. They made it for an example.


Oh wow, I thought you made it. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1732. pottery
In Trinidad, rain for a short while around 7:00 pm, some distant thunder in the south, and the heavy showers to the south-east appear to be slacking off a bit.
May get some more tonight and Sunday........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
LOL gotta love the NHC. Hurricane ''Example''
September 17th 2009.


Can I have a link to this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
456, strike that wave up as an AOI.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:
1723. You made all that, impressive!!


No ROFL, thats straight from the NHC site. They made it for an example.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23632
1728. K8eCane
We have the Cape Fear RIVER....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:
1723. You made all that, impressive!!


The NHC made that. Its an example for them to test their skills on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Our tropical wave might become a player after all

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CAN BE FOUND IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N82W AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW EAST TO 11N80W 12N75W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE CAN BE FOUND OVER THIS REGION...WEDGED BETWEEN THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH HONDURAS AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FOUND WITHIN 150 NM N QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM N OF
THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY MAKE ITS WAY WESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...REACHING 70W BY MON MORNING.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1725. K8eCane
Dear Lord

Did they just HAVE to use Cape Fear NC (really no such place)...Its Wilmington ???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1775 - 1725

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
78 °F
Scattered Clouds