El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sporteguy03:


TS come on we know that no one said it should be why is that brought up all the time when someone makes observations on a model??


This morning the NAM was part of the Major models that some was grouping together for this ghost storm to develop. I merely pointed out that the only Major model showing a ghost storm of any magnitude was the GFS and everyone started Screaming bloody murder......I stand by what i said Show me other major models that show a storm devleoping.....
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Scott i said the same thing this morning....The NAM is never a Model to be used for Tropical Development....OMG.....LMAO


TS come on we know that no one said it should be why is that brought up all the time when someone makes observations on a model??
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5162
Quoting sporteguy03:


Scott I was making an observation that is all to Drak's post.



I think I put him on Ignore last year for saying 1 thing..then something differently happening..then he comes around later and said he got it right!...then people asked him some questions..and he was totally off on his answers and I asked him if he had a degree in Met or was it just his passion...he never answerd me.. So I put him on iggy.. :)
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Good evening all! Been quite an eventful Saturday at least for me, but now am taking some time to check on the latest weather.

For South Florida residents, it appears that this active weather will remain around through at least Monday as this persistent trough refuses to leave and will linger through early next week. We could continue to see very heavy rainfall and strong storms each afternoon as well. There seems to be some drier weather possibly coming towards middle-to-late next week with a weak ridge expected to develop over the state. This ridge could also play a factor in the tropics IF we do see tropical development in the Western Caribbean like a few models have been predicting the past few days.

Speaking about the tropics, things seem to be getting a bit more interesting as we witnessed a weak surface low develop (analyzed at 1010mb by the TPC) and begin moving gradually towards the NNW after exiting Panama late this morning. We will need to watch to see whether land interaction occurs and how exactly this evolves in time. At the same time, I'm going to be keeping an eye on the tropical wave that Weather456 has highlighted at around 59W since this could serve as a potential catalyst for tropical cyclogenesis to possibly occur in the Western Caribbean come Tuesday as the tropical wave will interact with the surface trough currently drenching Costa Rica and Nicaragua. But, only time will tell and we just need to wait and see what, if anything, will happen early next week in the Western Caribbean.

In regards to the latest computer models, still going with the statement I made yesterday that I'm not buying into the computer models since we continue to see little model consensus and there has been great inconsistency in several models. For now, it would be best to take a wait-and-see approach with this entire situation.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
Can someone please post the worst storm known recorded on NEXRAD. The other day I saw white on NEXRAD off of Texas.
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Quoting scottsvb:
Why would you guys look @ the NAM for the tropics?


Scott I was making an observation that is all to Drak's post. Sorry!
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5162
Nam is like the LBAR for the tropics!
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Quoting scottsvb:
Why would you guys look @ the NAM for the tropics?


Scott i said the same thing this morning....The NAM is never a Model to be used for Tropical Development....OMG.....LMAO
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Why would you guys look @ the NAM for the tropics?
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Quoting sporteguy03:


Drak at 84hrs there is a low South of the Yucatan now as strong as the 18z but still there. Maybe GFS will develop it later?


Yes, it should, the NAM is just less bullish in this run. Hopefully the model ambiguity will lessen tomorrow.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting seattlekos:


There is a thing called "email" you know.

I didn't know about this disturbance till someone mentioned it in chat, so I had to scope it out. My son's on a US Navy ship in that area, last I heard, so I've been a little nervous about the weather. He said they've been getting some good storms, even having to leave the area, although he said watching the lightning off in the distance at night has been entertaining. I'm going to keep an eye out on the blog and see what develops as Dr. Masters is forecasting for the coming week.


Rather you didn't
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here we go again


I'm making popcorn as I type this...
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Quoting Drakoen:
Nothing on the 00z NAM.


Drak at 84hrs there is a low South of the Yucatan not as strong as the 18z but still there. Maybe GFS will develop it later?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5162
Quoting TampaSpin:


MEAN and Trouble.......LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:


MEAN and Trouble.......LOL


There is a thing called "email" you know.

I didn't know about this disturbance till someone mentioned it in chat, so I had to scope it out. My son's on a US Navy ship in that area, last I heard, so I've been a little nervous about the weather. He said they've been getting some good storms, even having to leave the area, although he said watching the lightning off in the distance at night has been entertaining. I'm going to keep an eye out on the blog and see what develops as Dr. Masters is forecasting for the coming week.
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Hey it could happen.
FAKE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 062337
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
600 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ORGANIZED LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG GALE WINDS. THIS AREA HAS BEEN PRODUCING WINDS OF 45 KNOTS AND VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IN EXCESS OF -85C. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE, A RECENT RECON PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION ISNT QUITE AS STACKED AS IT COULD BE.
DUE TO THIS LACK OF LOWER LEVEL ORGANIZATION
AND THE FACT THAT WE AT THE NHC ENJOY WATCHING THE WEATHER UNDERGROUND BLOG IMPLODE WE WILL
NOT INITIATE ADVISORY'S YET. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AT ANY TIME AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
A GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AT AROUND 5MPH.
THERE IS A VERY HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA AND PETRO

JK/JK/JK/JK


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1809. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
here we go again
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1808. beell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1120 AM AST SAT JUN 6 2009


...MANY INTERESTING THINGS ARE OCCURRING IN THIS FORECAST WHICH ADD
SOME ELEMENTS OF UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. THE
GFS HAS HAD A PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION/STORM OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK...
SPLASHING IT ALTERNATELY AS FAR WEST AS THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR AS FAR EAST AS JUST NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF 10 DAYS AND EVEN ITS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT A GIVEN.
IN PART THIS DIFFICULTY MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. RECENTLY PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
RECEIVED RECORD AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND THERE WAS SNOWFALL...IN THE
SIERRA NEVADA...DUE TO AN UNUSUAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT JUST
MOVED THROUGH THE STATE. ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH MAY EVENTUALLY
MOVE OVER THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND APPEARS TO FORM A CUT-
OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY...BUT THE
UNUSUALNESS OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE GIVING THE GFS DIFFICULTY. THE
POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE FORMATION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ITS
DISTANCE FROM THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER...MAY REDUCE SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY FOR US...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING SOUTHEAST FLOW AT
LOWER LEVELS AND COPIOUS MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS IN BOTH ALTERNATE
SOLUTIONS. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL YIELD A
MUCH WETTER SCENARIO THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPERIENCED IN THE
MONTH OF JUNE. AND IN FACT...THOUGH IT IS ONLY THE 6TH DAY OF THE
MONTH...RAINFALL AT SAN JUAN IS APPROACHING THE MONTHLY AVERAGE OF
4.33 INCHES. THE RECORD JUNE RAINFALL IS 10.96 INCHES SET IN 1965.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...THE PRESENCE OF A MODEST UPPER LEVEL JET
ARCHING ANTICYCLONICALLY NORTH OF US IS BRINGING
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT INCREASES SLOWLY
FROM A MINIMUM OF AROUND -2 SUNDAY TO AN AVERAGE OF +3 ON
THURSDAY. BUT MORE SURPRISINGLY THE DIVERGENCE SHOWS PEAKS OF
GREATER THAN +9 OVER SAN JUAN AND HIGHER NEARBY MID WEEK. THESE
POCKETS OF VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAVE BEEN APPEARING DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK IN OVER 6 CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS AND CAN NO LONGER BE
IGNORED AS NOISE. THEY WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY PLAY A PART IN ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA AND CREATING AREAS OF EXPLOSIVE
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH...THAT WOULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF
RAIN.

AT THE MOMENT THE GFS DOES NOT SEE AN END TO THE WET
WEATHER...CARRYING PRECIPITABLE WATER OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. RIVERS UP TO NOW HAVE NOT HAD
MUCH TROUBLE HANDLING THE HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER
ISOLATED AREAS...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE LATER NEXT WEEK SO THAT THIS
SITUATION DEMANDS SPECIAL VIGILANCE.

HAVE RAISED SOME POPS TO CATEGORICAL DURING THE GREATEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS DEPICTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT
MUCH HIGHER CHANCES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD INDICATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL AND WE MAY NEED TO FURTHER ADJUST
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD SHOULD MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS BE
INDICATED. THE UNCERTAINTY BEING THAT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO SEND THE TEMPERATURE SOARING ON THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SAN JUAN
METROPLEX...



Link
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8 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2013

October 3, 2013? Did this fall in from some timewarp or something?
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Good dude, he's napping right now, how are your wife and kid doing? :)


MEAN and Trouble.......LOL
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1803. Drakoen
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Good dude, he's napping right now, how are your wife and kid doing? :)


So you are JFV. I hear a confession!!!!
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Quoting Littleninjagrl:


I just threw a rock at your living room window, did i brake it?


Can you imiagine .....no screaming kids for the next 2 months....what are you going to do with yourself.......LOL
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Quoting Littleninjagrl:


I just threw a rock at your living room window, did i brake it?


LOL..OK i give Neighbor.......LOL
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I thought that was you yelling at your husband across the street.........ROFLMAO


I just threw a rock at your living room window, did i brake it?
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
18z GFS predicts...over Flordia and back? Not another Fay!


The 18Z GFS looks unplausible.
Hopefully the 00Z GFS will be back on track.
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1797. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


2004 ivan
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Good evening.


Hey bro...how's things....baby doing ok.
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1794. Drakoen
Nothing on the 00z NAM.
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1793. Patrap
Really Bad Idea as NASA would say..

Ya'll gonna give some ol Lady in Boca a Stroke.

Nitey.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127601
18z GFS predicts...over Flordia and back? Not another Fay!
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1791. Levi32
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i dont think ya should be posting fake cane warnings for some reason it just don't seem right


I agree.....if you're gonna do that make it obvious that it's fake and say as much....no discussion numbers no caps or anything like that.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
1790. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
i dont think ya should be posting fake cane warnings for some reason it just don't seem right
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1789. Drakoen
.
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1787. Levi32
Hello all.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Quoting K8eCane:
Dear Lord

Did they just HAVE to use Cape Fear NC (really no such place)...Its Wilmington ???

I don't get it...there IS a Cape Fear NC....Link
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Quoting Patrap:
That was a really quick "poof".

#1778 poofed for Obvious reasons.

Lub dat feature.


Wait me?
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1783. Patrap
We heading out to the coffee Haus here Chief,a Lil R&R with the Wife.

Open Mike Sat Night.

Ya never know who will show up.


Neutral Ground Coffeehouse
New Orleans' Oldest Coffeehouse Located Uptown a

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127601
1781. Patrap
The Blogs "PG-13" rating is taking a beating,

..careful.

Admin is in da haus.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127601
1780. Makoto1
We're seeing a lot of "worst case scenario" fake storms here...

We need a 45 mph tropical storm hitting New Jersey while moving at 35 mph for something different.

But it's interesting to see what Dr. Masters said about Katrina, having not been there at the time.
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1779. Drakoen
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Quoting Littleninjagrl:
I got one for you guys....Image if a forcaster said this:

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HOLY CRAP DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEPT 8 2020

A NEW CATEGORY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WE NOW HAVE HURRICANE HOLY CRAP AT CATEGORY 6. WINDS ARE AT 460 MPH AND EXTEND OUTWARD 900 MILES.

NO NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS JUST GET THE "F" OUT!!!!

$$$ FORCASTER ME

LOL that would stink!


I thought that was you yelling at your husband across the street.........ROFLMAO
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1776. hahaguy
Quoting Littleninjagrl:
I got one for you guys....Image if a forcaster said this:

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HOLY CRAP DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEPT 8 2020

A NEW CATEGORY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WE NOW HAVE HURRICANE HOLY CRAP AT CATEGORY 6. WINDS ARE AT 460 MPH AND EXTEND OUTWARD 900 MILES.

NO NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS JUST GET THE "F" OUT!!!!

$$$ FORCASTER ME

LOL that would stink!


I think that would get peoples attention lol.
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1775. Patrap
Evening Chief StormW
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127601

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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