El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1875 - 1825

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

1875. gator23
Quoting Vortex95:
The only time someone super overhyped a storm and was right to some effect was stormtop. Although it was a knowledgeable possiblility and his land fall location although not accurate doomed that city to destruction. But stormtop, cat, or what ever his name is now should not be listined for anything other than entertainment.


are you referring to the doomsday scenario he gave NOLA last season for Gustav or his hourly updates about a rouge boat that threatened to break the levees?
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
Quoting Littleninjagrl:
I got one for you guys....Image if a forcaster said this:

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HOLY CRAP DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEPT 8 2020

A NEW CATEGORY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WE NOW HAVE HURRICANE HOLY CRAP AT CATEGORY 6. WINDS ARE AT 460 MPH AND EXTEND OUTWARD 900 MILES.

NO NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS JUST GET THE "F" OUT!!!!

$$$ FORCASTER ME

LOL that would stink!

that would suck
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
weatherstudent..why do you have a picture of you and someone else.. is that your brother or something? I thought you both were the same person!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
00z GFS looks like it might finally be coming to its senses.


Let's hope and pray for that potential outcome there, Drak. That's for damn sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1870. Drakoen
00z GFS looks like it might finally be coming to its senses.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
1868. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
look really bad i woudl recomend keeping an eye on that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Wicked looking wave approaching the Leewards.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1865. Drakoen
Quoting beell:


LOL,
I'm glad you recognized it as a "legitimate" NWS discussion!


LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The only time someone super overhyped a storm and was right to some effect was stormtop. Although it was a knowledgeable possiblility and his land fall location although not accurate doomed that city to destruction. But stormtop, cat, or what ever his name is now should not be listined for anything other than entertainment.
Look at the blob above the 20 lat

Looks bad
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The southwestern Caribbean is definitely ripe enough.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
1861. beell
Quoting Drakoen:
If you were to look at the post Beell made from the NWS you would see that it is similar to what I have been saying.


LOL,
I'm glad you recognized it as a "legitimate" NWS discussion!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

WeatherStudent please stop causing troublr
And you don't? You were saying "don't discount the blob because Wilma started as a blob" something to that effect....



.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Costco near me had 40% of its parking lot heavily flooded. And that was before the new batch of showers tonight. I have to go back there on Monday to get stuff hopefully it won't be a ocean.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting WeatherStudent:


You do.

And you don't? You were saying "don't discount the blob because Wilma started as a blob" something to that effect....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:
Pretty hostile environment down there thats for sure.
Yup
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1854. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


Let's not overdo it I didn't get a chance to finish with you =P


I think Beell's post from the NWS finishes the discussion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1853. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
Perhaps analyzing a robust model runs of the GFS can come off as hyping but i've always wanted to see model support. You guys obviously weren't paying attention to the discussion I had with Levi today to have the audacity to challenge me now.


Let's not overdo it I didn't get a chance to finish with you =P
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
1852. Drakoen
If you were to look at the post Beell made from the NWS you would see that it is similar to what I have been saying.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1851. Levi32
GFS 00z showing possibility of sub-tropical development east of Florida that SJ and I were talking about earlier.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
Quoting Drakoen:
Perhaps analyzing a robust model runs of the GFS can come off as hyping but i've always wanted to see model support. You guys obviously weren't paying attention to the discussion I had with Levi today to have the audacity to challenge me now.


Some people just love trying to attack you. I can easily name at least 4 who occasionally do it. Ah, well....back to the weather. The AOI seems to have nearly collapsed. We'll see how/if it rebounds tomorrow.


Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
Pretty hostile environment down there thats for sure.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
Quoting Acemmett90:
18z GFS Not Looking good for florida
Link


Again it only bottoms out at 1004mb it appears....whats so bad....thats not even a Tropical Storm.....Will bring some rain....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
oz gfs coming out..still delaying anything!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
YAWN!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1845. Drakoen
Perhaps analyzing a robust model runs of the GFS can come off as hyping but i've always wanted to see model support. You guys obviously weren't paying attention to the discussion I had with Levi today to have the audacity to challenge me now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Acemmett90:
18z GFS Not Looking good for florida
Link


06z run
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
It appears that Drak was right all along.


For the first time ever, I must second that. There's no longer any doubt in my mind now.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1842. JRRP
Quoting StormW:


Area Of Interest

thanks StormW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
better to plan for the worst then hope for the best
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
I never hype anything. I almost always take a conservative approach.


You do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1839. Drakoen
I never hype anything. I almost always take a conservative approach.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z GFS Not Looking good for florida
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


lol. Let's not add to the fire ;)


Thats why Im staying vague with this.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
Quoting cchsweatherman:


They're all just haters man! Just remember what I stated a few weeks ago:

On the blogs, ignorance can be a virtue.


Most-definitely, WeatherMan. It's almost to the equivalency of you daily lives.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1835. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
It appears that Drak was right all along.


lol. Let's not add to the fire ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scottsvb:


This guy hypecasted this thing last night..talking about Look @ 168hrs out in the SE GOM... gosh!!


Not about the system my friend.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
Quoting TampaSpin:


This morning the NAM was part of the Major models that some was grouping together for this ghost storm to develop. I merely pointed out that the only Major model showing a ghost storm of any magnitude was the GFS and everyone started Screaming bloody murder......I stand by what i said Show me other major models that show a storm devleoping.....


See that is a difference, the NAM is not in the league of the GFS, CMC, NoGaps, UKMET, ECMWF. I don't disagree with you I agree and more global models will be better agreeing with the GFS.It is an area to watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
It appears that Drak was right all along.


This guy hypecasted this thing last night..talking about Look @ 168hrs out in the SE GOM... gosh!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:
I very much dislike when people come on here and post things they are clueless about...for others to read and take it serious....So many this morning was over hyping this ghost storm it was unreal.....and because i was not wishcasting i was being outcasted......LOL....its all good.


They're all just haters man! Just remember what I stated a few weeks ago:

On the blogs, ignorance can be a virtue.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Quoting TampaSpin:
I very much dislike when people come on here and post things they are clueless about...for others to read and take it serious....So many this morning was over hyping this ghost storm it was unreal.....and because i was not wishcasting i was being outcasted......LOL....its all good.


Dude your 100% correct!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It appears that Drak was right all along.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
1828. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
instead of a witchin hr i think we are getting the bitching hour
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I very much dislike when people come on here and post things they are clueless about...for others to read and take it serious....So many this morning was over hyping this ghost storm it was unreal.....and because i was not wishcasting i was being outcasted......LOL....its all good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Guys, a quick FYI: On my avatar box, y'all will find a recent pic of my pride and joy, Christian. Aright, back to tropical meteorology.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sporteguy03:


TS come on we know that no one said it should be why is that brought up all the time when someone makes observations on a model??


This morning the NAM was part of the Major models that some was grouping together for this ghost storm to develop. I merely pointed out that the only Major model showing a ghost storm of any magnitude was the GFS and everyone started Screaming bloody murder......I stand by what i said Show me other major models that show a storm devleoping.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1875 - 1825

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
49 °F
Light Rain Mist