El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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1925. aquak9
hey northern eyewall...yeah that one slid by me.
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1924. IKE
Jacksonville,FL. long-term....

"LONG TERM...WED-SAT.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A MEAN LAYER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA IN MID LEVELS RESULTING IN HOTTER AND DRIER CONDS. MAX
TEMPS MAY REACH MID 90S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
CENTRAL FL POSSIBLE SHIFTING NWD BY FRI AND SAT DUE TO POSSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT WELL S OF THE AREA."

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1923. IKE
From Mobile,AL.....

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...00Z GFS AND LATEST 00Z
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT FOR OUR AREA THOSE DIFFERENCES
DONT REALLY AMOUNT TO A WHOLE LOT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING THE WESTERN GULF RIDGE NORTHEAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK THEN FLATTENING THE RIDGE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES AND TRAIN OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ADJUSTS A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH. THIS CAN ONLY MEAN ONE THING...WE HAD BETTER CUT
THAT GRASS BY MONDAY BECAUSE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS VERY
WARM AND MUGGY. NORMALLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THESE TEMPS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE ORDINARY. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT BELOW
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPS DUE TO OUR LATE SEASON FRONTAL
PASSAGES...THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL TAKE SOME GETTING USED TO AGAIN.
OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL ADVERTISE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 101 TO
105 RANGE FOR SEVERAL INLAND AREAS IN THE EARLY TO MID WEEK
TIMEFRAME WITH INLAND MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S (AND VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF WIND UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS). ECMWF AND GFS POOLS UP
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE
GFS HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED RANGE WITH REGARDS TO A LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEAST GULF NEXT WEEKEND...BEING WEAKER AND
SLOWER (ALTHOUGH STILL FASTER THAN THE ECMWF).
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting aquak9:
well....ya'll were right. WeatherStudent really is JFV.

Crow...it's not just for breakfast anymore.


Suprised you didn't see that, you can usually name a troll in 3 posts... LOL
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 11554
1921. IKE
That trough that's over the eastern GOM is putting a stop on anything in the western Caribbean.

Until it moves out...very little chance in the western Caribbean. Too much shear.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1920. aquak9
well....ya'll were right. WeatherStudent really is JFV.

Crow...it's not just for breakfast anymore.
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Quoting Boca:
Thank you. :)

Is there a "new user" how to page?


Link
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1918. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAVE DIMINISHED THIS
MORNING...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1917. Boca
Thank you. :)

Is there a "new user" how to page?
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1916. WxLogic
Morning...
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1915. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Up top, settings


Then click "Page Preferences" and you'll see the box for "Time Zone".
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Only the GFS and ECMWF are expecting development. The NOGAPS and NAM dropped it.
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Quoting Boca:
I'm a new member and "wonder" is there a posting thread or do we just have to follow the posts? Seems like this is such a great site that it would be more organized but I suspect it's me not knowing the ropes...also how can I change the GMT to my local time on the posts? many thanks.


Up top, settings
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 11554
1912. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike,
Remember to look at the Melbourne discussion :) lol.


LOL.....and good morning:)
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1911. Boca
I'm a new member and "wonder" is there a posting thread or do we just have to follow the posts? Seems like this is such a great site that it would be more organized but I suspect it's me not knowing the ropes...also how can I change the GMT to my local time on the posts? many thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ike,
Remember to look at the Melbourne discussion :) lol.
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Quoting NJNorEaster:
Can someone send a link for the ECMWF? TIA


Link
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Can someone send a link for the ECMWF? TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1906. Makoto1
Quoting charlottefl:
Something to remember this discussion is only for the possibility of development within the next 48 hours.



I know, but I've seen them hint at development beyond that time and there's no sense of that tonight from them, at least from what I'm seeing.
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Quoting Drakoen:
00z ECMWF unchanged.


Drak, can I get a link to the ECMWF? I lost it during a computer crash back in February, and haven't been able to relocate it.
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1904. Drakoen
00z ECMWF unchanged.
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The area is still extremely disorganized, with no real concentrated area of vorticity from what I can see on satellite imagery (I'm too lazy to check surface observations). There is no definite area of concentrated cyclonic turning, but rather, a large and disorganized cyclonic gyre covering much of the southwest and western Caribbean.

I'm inclined to agree with the others here, particularly given the fact that it might move inland into Central America soon, that development will be very gradual, if it even occurs at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Something to remember this discussion is only for the possibility of development within the next 48 hours.

Quoting Makoto1:
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Doesn't sound like they think very highly of the southwest Caribbean AOI either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1901. Makoto1
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Doesn't sound like they think very highly of the southwest Caribbean AOI either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1900. sfla82
Quoting Levi32:
GFS 00z showing possibility of sub-tropical development east of Florida that SJ and I were talking about earlier.


Nah...
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HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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AOI #1

AOI #2
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Double post
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
945 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM PATTERN OVER WRN NOAM FORECAST TO NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY
AS MERIDIONAL NLY FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE W COAST. CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER INTERIOR NORCAL WILL MAINTAIN THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER MAINLY MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OVERNITE...WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENING ON SUN/MON. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
LINGER OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING
A TROFFY PATTERN OVER THE AREA. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR IS
THEN FORECAST TO COME DOWN FROM THE GOA...EVENTUALLY FORMING ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW OVER CA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...THERE ARE NO HEAT WAVES
IN SIGHT FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS
...AND THE FIRST PART OF THIS MONTH
COULD END UP TO BE ONE OF THE COOLEST IN THE LAST 15 YEARS
...WILL
ANXIOUSLY BE AWAITING THE NUMBERS AND CRUNCHING OUT SOME STATISTICS
TO DETERMINE IF THIS INDEED BECOMES FACT.

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 070324
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
825 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2009



LOOK STRONG ENOUGH
TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCES TO OUR AREA. THE 18Z GFS
BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE STATE BY NEXT WEEKEND...ONE
THAT LIKELY WOULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BUT
THAT PARTICULAR MODEL RUN APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
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1892. Drakoen
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Weak for sure Bro, I just worry about the flooding concerns. Afternoon T-storms are piling up little lakes around here.


Perhaps if you read the previous pages you'll catch on.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Development chances have lowered. The area remains disorganized and there is an obvious lack of reliable computer forecast model consensus. Significant development is not expect and will not be possible until mid to late week; even that is uncertain. 3 out the 5 computer forecast models don't show development: UKMET, NOGAPS, CMC. The ECMWF shows marginal conditions with a broad area of low pressure forming that never really coalesces into anything significant. The GFS is trending more towards the ECMWF away from the robust solutions it previously had. The advancement of a deep layered ridge from Mexico into the GOM will amplify the upper flow creating a little bit of a jet streak gradient near the upper trough axis. The ridge axis of the upper ridge may allow the trough to lift out to allow for some slow development. Other computer models keep a sharp upper trough in the region as the gradients from the GOM ridge and the mid-atlantic ridge amplify the upper level winds.


Thanks for getting me up to speed Drak.
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Quoting Drakoen:
God help us all!?!?!?!?!?


Weak for sure Bro, I just worry about the flooding concerns. Afternoon T-storms are piling up little lakes around here.
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the rare wather that CA been haveing has of late has got too have some in today with El Niño mode runs are hiting more wet weather for june for the 2nd two weeks of june
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looks like Drakoen is excited again...hes pretending to be..but we know he probably really is!
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Will be interesting going into work Monday in Jupiter, FL. They've had some serious rains since Thursday, have to be approaching 10". They mentioned flooding on the news this eve.
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1886. Drakoen
God help us all!?!?!?!?!?
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Quoting Drakoen:
00z GFS looks like it might finally be coming to its senses.


Not as vigorous, but still there nonethless.
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1884. Drakoen
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


What's new with the AOI, locals are still mentioning it for late this week. Any input Drak is greatly appreciated, been out all day.


Development chances have lowered. The area remains disorganized and there is an obvious lack of reliable computer forecast model consensus. Significant development is not expect and will not be possible until mid to late week; even that is uncertain. 3 out the 5 computer forecast models don't show development: UKMET, NOGAPS, CMC. The ECMWF shows marginal conditions with a broad area of low pressure forming that never really coalesces into anything significant. The GFS is trending more towards the ECMWF away from the robust solutions it previously had. The advancement of a deep layered ridge from Mexico into the GOM will amplify the upper flow creating a little bit of a jet streak gradient near the upper trough axis. The ridge axis of the upper ridge may allow the trough to lift out to allow for some slow development. Other computer models keep a sharp upper trough in the region as the gradients from the GOM ridge and the mid-atlantic ridge amplify the upper level winds.
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Thanks Levi, interesting San Juan discussion. I think this may be a new level of forecasting nightmares.
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1882. Levi32
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


What's new with the AOI, locals are still mentioning it for late this week. Any input Drak is greatly appreciated, been out all day.


It's still weak and disorganized. Likely will move inland over Central America tonight and tomorrow. It will probably organize very slowly due to less-than-perfect conditions and should continue to be watched for possible development this week.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26746
1881. gator23
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


What's new with the AOI, locals are still mentioning it for late this week. Any input Drak is greatly appreciated, been out all day.
still s ghost. still no development. still waiting...
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1880. BtnTx
I have never used the "Ignore" feature of this blog. IMO it is for wimps.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Yep. You can see the fluid rotation well on that PWAT imagery.


What's new with the AOI, locals are still mentioning it for late this week. Any input Drak is greatly appreciated, been out all day.
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Good nite everyone......NO Fighting KIDS...
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1877. Drakoen
Quoting beell:
1860.

It's the dreaded monsoonal gyre! The source of a steady stream of vorts to confuse the GFS


Yep. You can see the fluid rotation well on that PWAT imagery.
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1876. beell
1860.

It's the dreaded monsoonal gyre! The source of a steady stream of vorts to confuse the GFS
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1875. gator23
Quoting Vortex95:
The only time someone super overhyped a storm and was right to some effect was stormtop. Although it was a knowledgeable possiblility and his land fall location although not accurate doomed that city to destruction. But stormtop, cat, or what ever his name is now should not be listined for anything other than entertainment.


are you referring to the doomsday scenario he gave NOLA last season for Gustav or his hourly updates about a rouge boat that threatened to break the levees?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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