El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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456 i am totally in agreement with your tropical analysis this morning. also your take, on the faith in the models.the key phrase is very correct"monitor the situation"
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Quoting Weather456:
I've heard reports that May 2009 was very wet for FL and that it elimanted much of the drought threat. I also looked at TRMM on June 1 and it seem you guys 150% of your normal rains for May.


In some locations in Florida, they received over 400% normal rainfall in May, most notably in NE Florida around the Daytona area.
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Quoting Weather456:
I've heard reports that May 2009 was very wet for FL and that it elimanted much of the drought threat. I also looked at TRMM on June 1 and it seem you guys 150% of your normal rains for May.


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Quoting IKE:



Will it EVER be Anna?
LOL


No it never will be Anna Ike, but it might be Ana lol :)
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1969. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:
SWD GFS AND ECMWF STILL INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN. MUCH LESSER
INTEREST IN THIS SYSTEM SEEN BY UKMET/NOGAPS AND CMC. A
PROGRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE EASTERN CARRIBEAN
MAY TRIGGER THIS DEVELOPMENT IN SEVERAL DAYS AND IS CARRIED WITH
CURRENT PROGS REMAINING NEAR SRN CUBA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
THREAT OF INCREASING MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR SRN FLORIDA
LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING UPON THE
ORGANIZATION AND TRACK. PLEASE MONITOR TPC PRODUCTS AND OUTLOOKS.
CISCO/ROSENSTEIN


FROM 9AM SUNDAY MORNING HPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION



Will it EVER be Anna?
LOL
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I've heard reports that May 2009 was very wet for FL and that it eliminated much of the drought threat. I also looked at TRMM on June 1 and it seem you guys 150% of your normal rains for May.
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"Eyewitness weather" (out the window) says we are in for another fun (routine) afternoon of thunderstorms here.

Lightning Meteorology
and Operational Considerations
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Just like we cannot put much faith in the models developing the system, we cannot put much faith in the models discounting it either. It's really a situation to be monitored as we do not know how the trough will behave or the introduction of the tropical wave will bring. But it's a good bet that development does not seem likely for now and moitsure will spread across the WCARIB.

More is dicussed here:

Tropical Update
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then the low weak low pressure off the coast of nicaragua will have to sit and fester until conditions get better.maybe the arrival of the tropical wave and the forcast slackening of wind shear could be the trigger mechanism. however if genesis is to take place it willbe a very slow process
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High wind shear will likely be the theme of this season.
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The 0Z GFS had the system going over S. Florida...same track as the 18Z but much weaker.

The 6Z run had a weak low going over the Bahamas.

12Z should be out in 1 1/2 hours.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting hurricane23:


Hopefully by then the moisture will lift to the north and bring florida some more rain.


Wasn't aware we needed more rain.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Wind shear won't let up in the Caribbean until Friday.


Hopefully by then the moisture will lift to the north and bring florida some more rain.
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1960. K8eCane
SWD GFS AND ECMWF STILL INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN. MUCH LESSER
INTEREST IN THIS SYSTEM SEEN BY UKMET/NOGAPS AND CMC. A
PROGRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE EASTERN CARRIBEAN
MAY TRIGGER THIS DEVELOPMENT IN SEVERAL DAYS AND IS CARRIED WITH
CURRENT PROGS REMAINING NEAR SRN CUBA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
THREAT OF INCREASING MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR SRN FLORIDA
LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING UPON THE
ORGANIZATION AND TRACK. PLEASE MONITOR TPC PRODUCTS AND OUTLOOKS.
CISCO/ROSENSTEIN


FROM 9AM SUNDAY MORNING HPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
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things are even slow in the epac.3wks into the season and only a weak invest.
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Quoting stoormfury:
strong vertical wind shear has diminish the chances of cyclogenesis inthe western caribbean for the moment.maybe the models were too bullish


Maybe they just jumped too quickly. Wind shear has been decreasing but not at a rate fit for cyclogenesis at the moment. Development is not ruled out but remain uncertain since we have this week to monitor the situation.
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Wind shear won't let up in the Caribbean until Friday.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Good amount of cloud cover this morning over parts of florida might put a cap on severe weather.

Sun looks to peaking through a bit so we'll see.
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Only the GFS remains...
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strong vertical wind shear has diminish the chances of cyclogenesis inthe western caribbean for the moment.maybe the models were too bullish
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Quoting Drakoen:
The way it look from the models, nothing may form. The area has also lost its area of low pressure.


Wind shear is high across most of the area with really no signs of letting up.
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Quoting Drakoen:
The way it look from the models, nothing may form. The area has also lost its area of low pressure.


Even the NAM is dropping this now.
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1950. Drakoen
The way it look from the models, nothing may form. The area has also lost its area of low pressure.
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I think we all need to remember that development was not forescasted by models until about Monday night into Tuesday. This will be a gradual development and we will see how the gfs continues to behave today and tonight. At this moment we cannot make any certain forecast on exactly where this possible TC is going to form and who it is going to affect.
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Just popping in for a second! For those of you who may be interested, particularly Patrap, I posted several pictures from yesterdays National Air Force Week air show. We had great weather and as always it was an awe inspiring show!
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'morning all! :)

Just a couple more hours of work on my preparations today for hurricane season.

Everything is really organized for quick deployment. I'm experiencing a very satisfying moment.

My hope is that I never have to use all this stuff. As a realist, I know better.
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
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Gotta Run! YOu all may need this again today.
Be responsible tho.....LOL

Troll Juice
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Seems like convection is returning to our AOI
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wow...The gfs is targeting my house
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I suppose this would be appropriate, seeing as its D-Day Plus 1.
Link
I love the Greensburg Tornado reference in the song.
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Different view shows weak elongated surface circulation in the East Pacific



Click on image to view original size in a new window



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QuikScat does not show much at the surface



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Morning All.

Nasty weather inland yesterday. It's going to be more focused on the SFL east coast and metro inland areas today, stay safe. At least 60mph winds mentioned by NWS and 1" hail possible in the stronger cells.
Link

Interesting write up from Crown Weather, with or without development FL could see increased chance of rain next weekend hopefully not like May's monsoon as some folks in Volusia County are still picking up after the flood.
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Good Morning Boca, Deerfield Beach here. After 3 or 4 tropical cyclones threaten or affect the U.S., you'll have a good understanding about what goes on here. Who are the trolls (JFV/Weather Student) and who are the standouts (StormW, Ike, PatTrap, and TampaSpin to name a few) and then there are the ones like me who tune in to get some of the best Tropical Advice on the WEB. The compilation of information here can give you the best jump to be totally prepared in the event a full on Hurricane. Keep in mind this information is for recreactional purposes and should not be used for life threatening situations. LOL
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Quoting scottsvb:



Yes that is your weak area of low pressure...but once it gets further north..it will get sheared...but will the weak LLC hold together or a new one form a few days later further NE...only time will tell!


Very strong westerlies just N of that area thats for sure.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
10.5N/82W looks a bit interesting.



Yes that is your weak area of low pressure...but once it gets further north..it will get sheared...but will the weak LLC hold together or a new one form a few days later further NE...only time will tell!
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1690
Quoting scottsvb:
This is why I tell everyone that looking into the long range 5-8 days out is pointless when we have nothing currently to look @ with no model support but 1. Only the GFS showed something more than a broad area of low pressure.
IKE is right...and right now..lets wait to see how the enviroment is 3-4 days from now..get that cold core trough out of the picture..

Thank You
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is why I tell everyone that looking into the long range 5-8 days out is pointless when we have nothing currently to look @ with no model support but 1. Only the GFS showed something more than a broad area of low pressure.
IKE is right...and right now..lets wait to see how the enviroment is 3-4 days from now..get that cold core trough out of the picture..
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1690
Good Morning,

Tropical Update
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10.5N/82W looks a bit interesting.
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06z gfs now has it a bit stronger again and further east
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1926. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
hey northern eyewall...yeah that one slid by me.


It's him. """JFVWeatherStudent"""
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1925. aquak9
hey northern eyewall...yeah that one slid by me.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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