El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Otay,..press.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Lotsa good Patent Ideas in the pipe for many Aviation related items.

US Patent 7099752 - Safelander
US Patent Issued on August 29, 2006


BACKGROUND

This invention relates to a remote pilot, located on the ground in a high fidelity virtual reality simulator, taking control of a civilian or military aircraft such as:

a) Executive (small to medium sized) Aircraft

b) Passenger/Carrier Aircraft

c) Cargo Aircraft

in order to provide relief to the aircraft's pilot(s) or to facilitate a safe landing which minimizes the loss of life and property damage from an aircraft that deviates from its air traffic control approved safe trajectory and/or approved flightplan.

Situations arise where an aircraft is piloted in such a way as to put the public in harms way. This can occur from a rogue pilot(s), terrorist(s), and/or problems aboard the aircraft that renders the flight crew incapable of safely piloting theaircraft (e.g.: sudden decompression). An example of the above was the aircraft hijacking that occurred on Sep. 11, 2001 where two commercial carrier aircraft were steered into the World Trade Center, another commercial carrier aircraft into thePentagon and a fourth commercial carrier crashed in Pennsylvania, when its passengers attempted to take control away from the hijackers. Under the 9/11 scenario, with SAFELANDER'S remote pilot(s) located on the ground and using ciphered telemetry, theplanes would be piloted away from large metropolitan areas and safely landed at airfields that minimizes the loss of life to both the persons aboard the aircraft and those located on the ground. Although SAFELANDER potentially wouldn't save all lives,it would substantially reduce the fatality count. SAFELANDER also acts as an effective deterrent to aircraft hijacking, since it eliminates the hijackers' ability to inflict a large number of ground deaths and/or destroy significant edifices.


Plenty more here..including PDF on FDR and CVR
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
12Z GFS is a little slower than the 12Z NAM.

NAM 84 hours.


GFS 84 hours.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
See?!?!?!?!?!

Details always get in the way of a good idea...

Pat...check your ouside e-mail for info on a cool new technology...

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Tropical Update
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Does anyone know how much each FDR and CVR costs? Or even a ballpark?
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I recind my earlier "ghost storm" comment since the doc seems pretty confident.
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Interesting vort moving out into Gulf south of Lake Charles on visible loop
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Well,those wireless Links dont always have a Line of Sight to a TDRS satellite or Other receiving base/station.And a Data Dropout can occur and lotsa folks have suggested it,but we dont have a Global Network to support it. Nice idea,but not practical in Dollars is the word on that.
Even the Highest tech vehicle,the Shuttles,..have periods of LOS on orbit.


So the Industry uses what they have and its been a good system for years,..except in these rare tragic events.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Quoting vortfix:
We should replace all flight recorders with flight data transmitters.
That way we would already have all the data from that flight and know exactly where to look!


Flight Data recorders monitor 88 separate data points. If they take a sample every second, and each sample is 50 bytes, (400 bits) you are looking at 4400 bytes per second, per plane. (34.37 Kbps) Thats basically a normal modem. But... now we consider the fact that there are several thousand planes in the air around the world at any time. Those planes are flying all over the world, for all kinds of airlines.

You are then left with the following issues:
1. Bandwidth (how to transmit, where to recieve)
2. Responsibility for storing the data (airline, flight origin, flight destination, country overflying?)
3. Data accuracy (loss of data in flight)
4. More handoffs (more handoffs within the plane = more chances for data loss/error)
5. Chance of aircraft operating, but data transmission lost (think solar storms)
6. Cost (refitting every commerical aircraft in the world - do YOU want to pay that surcharge?)
7. Is there a real need for it? What we have now works in 90-95% of airline crashes.
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Quoting vortfix:
We should replace all flight recorders with flight data transmitters.
That way we would already have all the data from that flight and know exactly where to look!



Precisely!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting charlottefl:
Yes. Andrew was during a Nino year. There were only 6 storms, and I believe Andrew was the only one to make landfall.


Only hurricane. TD 1 hit Florida and TS Danielle hit the mid Atlantic states.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
"FDR" Flight DATA Recorder and the "CVR",Cockpit Voice Recorder..are Bright International Rescue Orange...not Black, Thats a carry over term used for the avionics boxes that were rough coated in the analog days for Aircraft, Unrelated to the CVR and FDR.

The term is a bad misnomer,hated by Aviation and always used by the Media.



Aviation Topics.
Cockpit Voice Recorders (CVR) and Flight Data Recorders (FDR)


Large commercial aircraft and some smaller commercial, corporate, and private aircraft are required by the FAA to be equipped with two "black boxes" that record information about a flight. Both recorders are installed to help reconstruct the events leading to an aircraft accident. One of these, the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR), records radio transmissions and sounds in the cockpit, such as the pilot's voices and engine noises. The other, the Flight Data Recorder (FDR), monitors parameters such as altitude, airspeed and heading. The older analog units use one-quarter inch magnetic tape as a storage medium and the newer ones use digital technology and memory chips. Both recorders are installed in the most crash survivable part of the aircraft, usually the tail section.

Each recorder is equipped with an Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB) to assist in locating in the event of an overwater accident. The device called a "pinger", is activated when the recorder is immersed in water. It transmits an acoustical signal on 37.5 KHz that can be detected with a special receiver. The beacon can transmit from depths down to 14,000 feet.

Following an accident, both recorders are immediately removed from the accident site and transported to NTSB headquarters in Washington D.C. for processing. Using sophisticated computer and audio equipment, the information stored on the recorders is extracted and translated into an understandable format. The Investigator-in-Charge uses this information as one of many tools to help the Safety Board determine the Probable Cause of the accident.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Alicia in 83 that hit Galveston was a El Nino year too
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just add multiple boxes... not that hard. One on top of fuselage, one on bottom, and the current one. All recording same data, of course. spherical containers will help survivability, due to the inherent strength of a sphere. essentially have a tube with a pop top that comes off once exposed to sea water- lifeboats have them. Sea anchor on the sphere helps as well. Would not be hard.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Latest jet stream analysis


Egad that is a massive ridge over Alaska.
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Yes. Andrew was during a Nino year. There were only 6 storms, and I believe Andrew was the only one to make landfall.

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Wasn't Andrew during a El Nino year? if so it doesnt matter if theres less storms, your still screwed
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
They ought to design the Flight Data Recorders and Cockpit voice recorders so that they breakaway and float.
Seems like a good idea, but I wonder... at what point would it break away? Too early and pertinent data might not be included.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
They ought to design the Flight Data Recorders and Cockpit voice recorders so that they breakaway and float.

To make them "breakaway", they would have to be mounted externally, which puts them more at risk for damage during a crash. Right now, they are in the interior of the aircraft, in a fairly protected area, which helps their survivability. Considering how many aircraft crashes are over land or shallow water rather than deep waters in the middle of the ocean, it doesn't make sense to design something just for a small percentage of crashes, at the detriment of the majority of crashes.
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Here comes the 12Z GFS.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
They ought to design the Flight Data Recorders and Cockpit voice recorders so that they breakaway and float.
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Quoting leftovers:
just because drjeff masters is on the bandwagon does not mean its going to happen. i did notice he is not using percentages this time. the odds are now higher that is will happen


Geez he might even be wishcasting I guess too? lol
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5351
Quoting sfla82:
Lets see 80% chance of heavy rain yesterday here in Pompano Beach and no rain at all! Today is 70% chaince of rain for us.....Break out the sun screen.....Should be another dry one!!! LOL


lol... so right, so right.. Abundant sunshine here in Oakland Park.
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Does anyone know if the rain hanging out in the gulf off the coast of FL is actually going to hit us today? Yesterday it was headed right for us and then fizzled out just before it reached land...I'm in the Tampa area.
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Lets see 80% chance of heavy rain yesterday here in Pompano Beach and no rain at all! Today is 70% chaince of rain for us.....Break out the sun screen.....Should be another dry one!!! LOL
More recent info on the crash item and some new thoughts from prior experiences referenced. They are also stating the oil slick is far too large to be from the plane.

Quote- In 1996, a Boeing 757 taking off from the Dominican Republic crashed because the airspeed indicators of the captain and the first officer disagreed, and the crew mismanaged the problem. Mud wasps had nested in one of the Pitot tubes.


Link
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Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 10:07 AM CDT on June 05, 2009
Overcast
71.6 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 60%
Dew Point: 57 °F

Like an April Morning here..Gawgus..dawling
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Very strange, the missing aircraft thing.
So much time between the last radio contact, and the loss of the radar signal, and then a long time and several hundred miles between loss of radar signal and the last automated message re: electrical problems.
I really hope they can find the "box" but it would be a miracle.
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After looking at the 500mb heights on both the ECMWF and GFS their are only subtle differences. The GFS's track is plausible. The ECMWF is a little weaker on the eastern flank of the mid-tropospheric ridge which would allow a little more poleward movement than eastern movement of the system.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Wow debris that was found was not connected to the Airbus plane.Where can it be!?I'm sorry but this definitely reminds me of the show series called "Lost" that I love to watch.It's about a plane crash where part of the plane broke off in the air and landed in the water and other half on a island with survivors.And somehow the plane crash is never found by the public only a duplicate.


I've thought the same thing.
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It's just a low.....

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Heading due north. Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
I know its a ways out...but would the storm be more likely to drift back west at the end of the run if the ridge builds in when its near cuba or SE fl? Does anyone have a steering map for 7to 10 days out?
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The 12Z NAM is definitely slower than the last run.


post 31- Glad to see another lost fan on the blog!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
" The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region."

Yep. Looks like conditions will be quite favorable.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
Jetstream has been locked in this pattern since mid April,its gotta change pretty soon
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Rains Over Southeastern USA; Watching the SW Caribbean
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Ditto 32.

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any chance the low could swerve more west right into south Florida?
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Latest jet stream analysis

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Wow debris that was found was not connected to the Airbus plane.Where can it be!?I'm sorry but this definitely reminds me of the show series called "Lost" that I love to watch.It's about a plane crash where part of the plane broke off in the air and landed in the water and other half on a island with survivors.And somehow the plane crash is never found by the public only a duplicate.
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Quoting Portlight:
Morning,

If anyone is interested in joining us for flood clean up and repair duties in Volusia County Fl next weekend then please let us know. We have a discounted rate at a local hotel for anyone who needs lodging.

Thanks all!


which hotel i am just curious
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The 12Z NAM develops the low only 60 Hours out...
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28. IKE
12Z NAM at 66 hours puts a low just offshore...

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good update doc
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Thanks Doc.
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hey whats up all?? Its been a while. Just wanted to pop in and say "Hi".

I love Tampa/Storm Ws blog! Glad they got together... good stuff!

Hope everyone is doing well!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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