El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 225 - 175

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

Live camera from WSVN 7 in Miami. Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just had one comment to make regarding the computer model hype and its something that I've stated before. There is no computer model, forecaster, or person that knows exactly what will happen. Remember that Mother Nature follows its own rules and has always been unpredictable. We must all remember that all the computer models offer are guidance and shouldn't taken to be truth. Without an actual disturbance to track, this is all speculation.


models are meant to be used as gudiance only and do not depict the final outcome in any one event things can and will change from run to run
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I often come here when I need a good laugh. The bickering is some funny "stuff"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


Can we truly call it a "ghost storm" if its so far out into the future?


Yes, because GFS has been predictin this storm for lyke 3 days now, and NAM has been for lyke 2 days now. Ana, and Bill will be here quicker then we are expecting, probably by Saturday of next week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm more interested in that mid-latitude low it's trying to build at 1003 mb near the Indiana-Ohio border since it's just west of me o__o
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneWarning:


Yes they do.


Are you crazy or something. Who would argue over something silly in a blog? I mean really!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneWarning:


Yes they do.


They might, or might not, but let mother nature handle it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:


Gfs does pretty good at this. All three may combine, and become our "ghost storm"


Can we truly call it a "ghost storm" if its so far out into the future?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadofan:


They do not!


Yes they do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
you'll know it's me by the "Carolina" tags on my car...


Yall keep an eye out for this vehicle coming soon over there Daytona. Ya can tell by the tag.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadofan:


They do not!

ROTFLMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lol yeah the GFS is funny putting Bill, Claudette, and Danny all in a nice little line. It's having issues again with splitting the energy all over the place.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26599
Quoting extreme236:


It is a blog about conversation but the problem is conversations end up turning into arguments.


They do not!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:
what the heck!! GFS has three storms within 100 miles of each other at 174 hours. Someone toss this model out the window.



Gfs does pretty good at this. All three may combine, and become our "ghost storm"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
211. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


This may be correct, but in all reality there is nothing out there to talk about but models and what they say right now. It is a blog about conversation but the problem is conversations end up turning into arguments.


Exactly. That's all there is to talk about...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting kadakaaman:
Any comments on the intensity of the ITCZ penetration and possible icing on Air France 477?


What's more troubling is the intense white flash viewed by another pilot in the area.

This white flash is evidence of a pyrophoric white-hot uranium penetrator, which bores through everything it hits and creates a super-heated space as it burns at extremely hot temperatures. Asked if a white-hot DU penetrator would set off Thermate, Jones said, "Definitely."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


AMEN!! Thats what I say all the time but instead, I get bashed. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!! Don't let science say otherwise, 2005 season proved that and stuff.. Don't say it's gonna be quiet or active this season, let mother nature handle that!


This may be correct, but in all reality there is nothing out there to talk about but models and what they say right now. It is a blog about conversation but the problem is conversations end up turning into arguments.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Tidbit from 2:30pm eastern time 6-5-09
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26599
AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS

Bernard N. Meisner
Scientific Services Division
National Weather Service Southern Region
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just had one comment to make regarding the computer model hype and its something that I've stated before. There is no computer model, forecaster, or person that knows exactly what will happen. Remember that Mother Nature follows its own rules and has always been unpredictable. We must all remember that all the computer models offer are guidance and shouldn't taken to be truth. Without an actual disturbance to track, this is all speculation.


AMEN!! Thats what I say all the time but instead, I get bashed. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!! Don't let science say otherwise, 2005 season proved that and stuff.. Don't say it's gonna be quiet or active this season, let mother nature handle that!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Heavy rain, hail, severe thunderstorms, lmao, just what we need, more rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
204. IKE
Quoting presslord:
actually Daytona...I'm headin' your way next week...if you see me wander out into the road, feel free to just run over me....


If they see you with that dress on....they'll stop!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
you'll know it's me by the "Carolina" tags on my car...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Press, I won't, but someone probably will. Eveyone drives like a crazy person down here, course you know most people are transplants from UP NORTH. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
actually Daytona...I'm headin' your way next week...if you see me wander out into the road, feel free to just run over me....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Press, they were probably from Pennsyltucky or Florgia, which is right next to the Carolina's :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking a little dusty out there in the Central Atlantic...

True Color - African Dust Blanketing the MDR
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
382
WFUS52 KJAX 051821
TORJAX
FLC023-121-051900-
/O.NEW.KJAX.TO.W.0028.090605T1821Z-090605T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
221 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN SUWANNEE COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA
WESTERN COLUMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 221 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE CITY...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF ICHETUCKNEE SPRINGS
STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WINFIELD AND LAKE CITY.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
btw...I'm willing to concede that I may do the same thing when I'm on vacation...but I sure hope not...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
man press, you southerners are supposed to be gracious, you must be from the CAROLINAS ....
lmao
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
195. IKE
Quoting winter123:
what the heck!! GFS has three storms within 100 miles of each other at 174 hours. Someone toss this model out the window.



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Ghost Storm Watch 2009.

The NWS has issued a Severe Ghost Storm Warning for the following counties/areas MIAMI-DADE,BROWARD,PALM BEACH, ST LUCIE, MARTIN, VOLUSIA, BRADFORD, ALACHUA, ORANGE, HILLSBOROUGH, PINELLES and CITRUS counties...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OK...I've gotta vent....

I just got back from a meeting in downtown Charleston...and I'm agitated...

it just amazes me how tourists seem to think they have some sorta protective bubble around them...they just wander out into the street without looking...or caring...about cars and trucks...

"I'm on vacation...therefore I'm indestructible!" seems to be their motto...

Alright...I feel better now...Thanks!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what the heck!! GFS has three storms within 100 miles of each other at 174 hours. Someone toss this model out the window.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


He's outside in Lauderdale hanging shutters.

12Z CMC with zilch.


You mean I shouldn't be putting my shutters up?!? :) Dagnabbit...
Nice batch of T-storms trying to work their way ashore in the Tampa area. No wonder it's a little on the windy side. Anyone know if the Skyway bridge is closed up there?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
190. IKE
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


By the amount of lightning to the EAST early this morning ~2am, looked as though you guys were getting hammered


Exactly. Bad thunderstorm woke me up between 2:30 and 3.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


...30 ft. ie third floor level


I'm way above that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


He's outside in Lauderdale hanging shutters.

12Z CMC with zilch.


LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just had one comment to make regarding the computer model hype and its something that I've stated before. There is no computer model, forecaster, or person that knows exactly what will happen. Remember that Mother Nature follows its own rules and has always been unpredictable. We must all remember that all the computer models offer are guidance and shouldn't taken to be truth. Without an actual disturbance to track, this is all speculation.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Quoting IKE:


Sunshine here and 75 outside.

Yeah, the radar is drying out.


By the amount of lightning to the EAST early this morning ~2am, looked as though you guys were getting hammered
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
185. IKE
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
What's up Ike, it sure is turning out to be nice day here about 50 miles to your West


Sunshine here and 75 outside.

Yeah, the radar is drying out.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
What's up Ike, it sure is turning out to be nice day here about 50 miles to your West
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneWarning:
The University of Tampa, Tampa, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago

Wind Gust: 34.0 mph (Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 30 ft




...30 ft. ie third floor level
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
IM sure there were isolated 40-50mph wind gusts..but overall it was 25-35mph gusts!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Any comments on the intensity of the ITCZ penetration and possible icing on Air France 477?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The University of Tampa, Tampa, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
75.0 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 86%
Dew Point: 70 °F
Wind: 17.0 mphfrom the WNW
Wind Gust: 34.0 mph
Pressure: 29.90 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 75 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 8 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 4000 ft
Scattered Clouds 5000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 8500 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 30 ft


I'm sure higher winds are out there just not recorded.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Landlock:


You must live on the top floor of the Regions building downtown, because not a single weather station in the area is reporting over 25mph gusts.


Actually I'm in the building next door to that one. I just saw a 34 mph wind recorded at UT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneWarning:
We are easily seeing winds gusting to 50 mph in Tampa. My window is bowing in and out. I'm many floors up though so I don't know if this wind is translating all the way to street level.


You must live on the top floor of the Regions building downtown, because not a single weather station in the area is reporting over 25mph gusts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
177. IKE
I've got 75.7 degrees outside. Drier air has moved into the western Florida panhandle.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Question from a newbie. If the ElNino does form, what effect will it have on 2009-2010 winter here in Florida? Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
175. IKE
Quoting scottsvb:
If JV was here in Tampa.. he would say.. ." I think there is a Squall band coming in from our Possible developing Cat 3 down in the Sw Carribean that hasnt developed yet"


He's outside in Lauderdale hanging shutters.

12Z CMC with zilch.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

Viewing: 225 - 175

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.