El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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2025. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:
LOL did i say it was a bust???



if it this slow in july and augs then we wont see any name stroms at alll


5 storms is a bust.....LOL
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Levi32:


LOL....no she almost seems to be asleep again after all these weeks but her lava dome is still growing and could collapse at any moment with no warning.


Lava domes worry me..... St Helens comes to mind, I was in Portland at the time.
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2023. Patrap
-- EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page --

Model Cycle: 2009060712

North America: Model Tracks for Mid-Latitude Cyclones


..."Shucks...nuthin"..




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
LOL did i say it was a bust???



if it this slow in july and augs then we wont see any name stroms at alll
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes 5 the way things are going out there with the on going high wind shear i dont see how we can make it up too 10 or more name stormss


lol well Taz can't say you did not give your reason. Have to respect that.

But it's June 7, we have some 5 months 3 weeks to go.
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Quoting Weather456:
lol gotta love the swings on this blog. Never consistent.


7 days into the season.. and I think Taz considers it a bust.
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Quoting Patrap:
A slight downgrade on the seasons numbers eh Taz..?



yes
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2018. Patrap
I trust my eyes in the near term and ,well the models are just insight to what MAY occur downstream thru time.
Yesterday some were Splitting Hairs and troughs to fit a scenario.
Best to wait till one sees the Genesis forming before committing to a Genesis.
Best bet,..follow the trend and the Docs entries,they will show the way.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
2017. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFL, Redoubt


LOL....no she almost seems to be asleep again after all these weeks but her lava dome is still growing and could collapse at any moment with no warning.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
This is going to be a very quite season.
My prediction:

11 named storms
5 Hurricanes
2 Major
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Quoting bcn:


overrating El Niño effects?




yes El Niño effects even CA have been feeling some effects from El Niño right now
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2014. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes 5 the way things are going out there with the on going high wind shear i dont see how we can make it up too 10 or more name stormss


I'll have it waiting....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
lol gotta love the swings on this blog. Never consistent.
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Quoting Levi32:


Not sure what you mean.


ROFL, Redoubt
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2011. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:


Not much happening lately with your Geothermal generator lately?


Not sure what you mean.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting IKE:


5?



yes 5 the way things are going out there with the on going high wind shear i dont see how we can make it up too 10 or more name stormss
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2009. bcn
Quoting Tazmanian:
i am lowering my name storms from 14 name storms to 5 name storm 2 hurricanes and 0 cat 3 storms or higher winds


overrating El Niño effects?
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2008. IKE
Quoting Ossqss:
Mornin, it was stated in a previous online show with the good Doc, that the model forecasting of the El Nino was a very difficult thing and not very accurate.

I had asked several times what the impact of the transition from La to El would do to the modeling (GFS etc) and if that modeling was even taking that it into consideration from a code stand point. I have not obtained any answers.

It does seem the models are erratic at best and I was just curious if they are falling victim to the changes that are currently underway and not able to quantify things appropriately.

Does anyone have any insight on this item or am I just barking up the wrong tree?


I don't know. I don't trust models for showing tropical development. The GFS has become last years CMC.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

AOI #1

AOI #2
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Quoting Levi32:


7am lol.....was up at 6am watching French Open Tennis Final.


Not much happening lately with your Geothermal generator ?
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2005. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
i am lowering my name storms from 14 name storms to 5 name storm 2 hurricanes and 0 cat 3 storms or higher winds


5?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2004. Patrap
A slight downgrade on the seasons numbers eh Taz..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
i am lowering my name storms from 14 name storms to 5 name storm 2 hurricanes and 0 cat 3 storms or higher winds
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2002. Ossqss
Mornin, it was stated in a previous online show with the good Doc, that the model forecasting of the El Nino was a very difficult thing and not very accurate.

I had asked several times what the impact of the transition from La to El would do to the modeling (GFS etc) and if that modeling was even taking that it into consideration from a code stand point. I have not obtained any answers.

It does seem the models are erratic at best and I was just curious if they are falling victim to the changes that are currently underway and not able to quantify things appropriately.

Does anyone have any insight on this item or am I just barking up the wrong tree?
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
2001. Levi32
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Someone is up early! Isn't it 5am up there?


7am lol.....was up at 6am watching French Open Tennis Final.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
2000. IKE
I can see the turning just off of the coast. Looks like shear is affecting it, but it's there, for now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1999. Patrap
Let see some Florida wunderground members step up and rally for these 2 Homes in Voluisa County were going to Gut and rebuild.
Calamity has already come to 1500 Residents in Volusia County.
You can help make a Difference,by sharing your time on a project that will change lives,...


Portlight Featured Blog on that effort

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting Levi32:
Tropical Tidbit from 11am EDT June 7, 2009


Someone is up early! Isn't it 5am up there?
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Thanks Sportguy.

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1996. bcn
(correction)

QuikScat of the Azores/Portugal low:

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1995. Patrap

NexSat GOM Sector,LOOP
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
1994. Levi32
Tropical Tidbit from 11am EDT June 7, 2009
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting cchsweatherman:


In some locations in Florida, they received over 400% normal rainfall in May, most notably in NE Florida around the Daytona area.


Anyone that would like to volunteer to help with the flood clean up and rebuilding in Volusia County please get in touch with us. If you can not volunteer, donations, no matter how small or large are always the right size and will go to help provide relief to those who need it most.
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1992. bcn
QuikScat of the Azores/Portugal low:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas30.png
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1991. Patrap
Calamity callers,take a day off.

We will have nuff of that come later in the er,season.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
WS,

saying Andrew (and Wilma in a previous post) started out fighting shear or as a disorganize showers in reference to this situation is not being real. While both storms, as many do, started out with the said conditions, they occured different times of the year under different circumstances. Frankly it's quiet disturbing how you portrayed it.

But it's all cool bro, but you can compare it to an invest or a tropical depression, lol, not those monsters.
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Quoting zoomiami:
THE MIA MORNING SOUNDING WAS ALSO SHOWING THE 500 MB TEMPS AROUND
-10C THIS MORNING WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES TO OCCUR WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND IN THE
ZONES FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

This is part of the NWS forecast discussion today. Can someone explain the interaction of the temps at the 500 mb with the severity of the thunderstorms?

Thanks



Zoo, I think this means that since the 500Mb level will be -10 which is mid-levels above the surface, hail has a better chance making to the surface. In other words the colder air is closer to the surface where you are and allows hail a better chance to stay frozen to the ground level. But that is my guess from my knowledge. Other folks here might know more.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5307
1988. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


No it never will be Anna Ike, but it might be Ana lol :)


LOL....he...he...I was outside scrubbing off the front of my house. That's right...scrubbing it with a brush, clorox and soap.

I pissed off a bunch of spiders. But the front of my house is clean.

Where's that pressure-washer for Father's Day?


Ana
Ana
Ana.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
so are others
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1986. Patrap
Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity


The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (°C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
for the moment Florida is nomore the sunshine state LOL
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1983. bcn
Another low at Azores:

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Also with a nino knocking on the door look for a very wet summer across most of southeast florida. Its only just begining
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Yup, but wait a darn minute here, didn't Hurricane Andrew also have to fight with high wind shear values during a specific part in his overall existence?


WS, I think there are exceptions, simply because there is high shear does not mean there will be opportunities for a TC to form where shear might let up for a given time.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5307
Not a dry spot in the state- Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE MIA MORNING SOUNDING WAS ALSO SHOWING THE 500 MB TEMPS AROUND
-10C THIS MORNING WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES TO OCCUR WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND IN THE
ZONES FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

This is part of the NWS forecast discussion today. Can someone explain the interaction of the temps at the 500 mb with the severity of the thunderstorms?

Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1978. Patrap

The anti-Model seems to be the Best on this shoo-shoo
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
New here but have been reading this for years.
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Quoting Weather456:
I've heard reports that May 2009 was very wet for FL and that it elimanted much of the drought threat. I also looked at TRMM on June 1 and it seem you guys 150% of your normal rains for May.

Especially Central FL 456, can't speak for Panhandle, South FL, but Central FL is good. Orlando broke the record for most rain in May as well as Daytona Beach by a non-tropical system.

Depending on the set-up any moisture whether by a TC or moisture is not welcomed at least not in Central FL.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5307
456 i am totally in agreement with your tropical analysis this morning. also your take, on the faith in the models.the key phrase is very correct"monitor the situation"
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.