El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 275 - 225

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

Quoting eye2theskies:


LMAO!!

Sooo... What's the plan for Tornado Preparedness after I relocate to Nebraska?


Go to the NE corner of the basement -- Bend over - Put your head between tour legs - kiss your butt goodbye
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


That's true and that possibility is still on the table, but based on what the models are showing in the pattern that is about to evolve, as the subtropical jet lifts north, the low over Central America will get drawn northward by the cut-off upper trough over Florida. For now that seems like the most likely scenario with the pattern that is setting up here. Heat likes to pile up in central America and the far western Caribbean.


Oh yeah thats definatly a good possibility, I was just kinda pointing out a climatological fact about the area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Hurricane Preparedness

For those living in Florida, it is important to be familiar with and adhere to the basic three strep hurricane preparedness plan.

STEP 1. Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.
STEP 2. Put these supplies into your car.
STEP 3. Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Thanksgiving.



LMAO!!

Sooo... What's the plan for Tornado Preparedness after I relocate to Nebraska?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mossyhead:
i was talking to panhandle chuck. sorry to have left that out.


I live in Milton Fl.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
From what I've seen from systems in this area, historically disturbances that spread from the EPAC thru Central America and into the SW Caribbean typically develop more often in the EPAC.


That's true and that possibility is still on the table, but based on what the models are showing in the pattern that is about to evolve, as the subtropical jet lifts north, the low over Central America will get drawn northward by the cut-off upper trough over Florida. For now that seems like the most likely scenario with the pattern that is setting up here. Heat likes to pile up in central America and the far western Caribbean in June, waiting to interact with an upper feature that can spark cyclogenesis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WV:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Why?
because i like to feel important maybe
lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i was talking to panhandle chuck. sorry to have left that out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From cold to hot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
EVACUATION ROUTE: If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "Florida", you live in a low-lying area.)



The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.



That's why it's important to evacuate [leave...not pack then leave] the moment the warning is given (or even before...there'll be plenty of heads up)

Then, you can be first in line and cause the accident that piles everyone up behind you!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3642
From what I've seen from systems in this area, historically disturbances that spread from the EPAC thru Central America and into the SW Caribbean typically develop more often in the EPAC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
it is great having u on here to break up the serios nature of the talk here. where do u live?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


That convection should be slightly further north tomorrow from what I've seen and read.


Yes it should slowly drift NNW during the next few days, likely interacting a lot with Nicaragua and Honduras.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Central America IR.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That's the best one yet. LOL!
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Hurricane Preparedness

For those living in Florida, it is important to be familiar with and adhere to the basic three strep hurricane preparedness plan.

STEP 1. Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.
STEP 2. Put these supplies into your car.
STEP 3. Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Thanksgiving.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
260. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


University of Miami Satellite Imagery


That convection should be slightly further north tomorrow from what I've seen and read.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


What is that?


A typo :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


University of Miami Satellite Imagery
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
257. IKE
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:
Because, I just do. Evevn in emails I send, its in bolds, letters that I type it is in bold. I guess I like be a bold person


Well...you just didn't and my eyes appreciate it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


Exactly. Bad thunderstorm woke me up between 2:30 and 3.
woke me up also. had a couple bad lightning strikes nearby. pretty light show though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Because, I just do. Evevn in emails I send, its in bolds, letters that I type it is in bold. I guess I like be a bold person
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
EVACUATION ROUTE: If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "Florida", you live in a low-lying area.)



The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:


Just a heads up, I always type in bold in my posts


Why are your posts more important than anyone else?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
252. IKE
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:


Just a heads up, I always type in bold in my posts


Why?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
251. IKE
I remember about a week, maybe 10 days ago, the ECMWF showed a significant tropical system in the east PAC. It never happened. It dropped it within 2-3 runs.

The bottom line...I don't trust them for cyclones.

Weather patterns? Their more trustworthy.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
latest 3 surfaces observations


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Preparedness

For those living in Florida, it is important to be familiar with and adhere to the basic three strep hurricane preparedness plan.

STEP 1. Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.
STEP 2. Put these supplies into your car.
STEP 3. Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Thanksgiving.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Truthfully, I can read a post just fine without the constant bold letters.


Just a heads up, I always type in bold in my posts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


I follow them a lot in the winter. The GFS does a good job showing cold fronts moving through the SE USA and significant changes in the weather pattern.

In the summer, the GFS does a lousy job showing developing cyclones.


Yeah tropical cyclones are probably the GFS weakest point. It can't handle the transfer of heat from the tropics to the mid-latitudes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
246. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


Tempting isn't it =)

Like cchs was saying they're really just guides. Computers will never be smarter than us lol. This situation is complicated so all we can say for certain is that the chances for tropical cyclogenesis will be elevated in the western Caribbean 6-10 days from now.


I follow them a lot in the winter. The GFS does a good job showing cold fronts moving through the SE USA and significant changes in the weather pattern.

In the summer, the GFS does a lousy job showing developing cyclones.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


Just when the other models were backing off.

And this one has a low crossing western Cuba.

I know...I know...don't jump on a model or models...don't trust them beyond 72 hours....etc, etc, etc,.........



Tempting isn't it =)

Like cchs was saying they're really just guides. Computers will never be smarter than us lol. This situation is complicated so all we can say for certain is that the chances for tropical cyclogenesis will be elevated in the western Caribbean 6-10 days from now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
244. IKE
Quoting Ossqss:


Patrap, is he suspending a Herbert box?


What is that?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
243. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


Shows a more pronounced low than previous runs. Nothing major, but again demonstrating the need to watch the area as the environment becomes more favorable for development.


Just when the other models were backing off.

And this one has a low crossing western Cuba.

I know...I know...don't jump on a model or models...don't trust them beyond 72 hours....etc, etc, etc,.........

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Truthfully, I can read a post just fine without the constant bold letters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Marley is Holding the CAT-5 Box,..beware when He Opens it..round Sept 3rd
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Im happy the Ghost Storm moniker stuck.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, I've been really busy here at work, and now I have a chance to drop in and see an area of disturbed weather! I know it isn't anywhere near here, but we are going to Destin on the 13th and you know its going to be red flag beach days the whole time we are there! :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
...."You will be Visited by 3 Global Model Spirits tonight..expect the First at the Hour of 2300 Zulu"...



Patrap, is he suspending a Herbert box?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Actually since the last week of May. Link


Well, I say Tuesday night or early Wednesday, we will be dealin wit Ana, and hopefully it will ride its way to SC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF


Shows a more pronounced low than previous runs. Nothing major, but again demonstrating the need to watch the area as the environment becomes more favorable for development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting eye2theskies:


***Issues Ghost Storm Warning for Makoto1***

Where are you in Ohio Makoto? I lived in Columbus before relocating to Hurricane Alley (aka Ft Myers, FL) about 4 yrs ago


lol I'm over in Dayton...

The worst part of a ghost storm warning is that if it doesn't develop it turns into a slow day warning.

***SLOW DAY WARNING***

AT 2108 GMT, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A... SLOW DAY WARNING... FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: THE ENTIRE WORLD. THIS DAY WAS MOVING WEST AT ONE HOUR PER HOUR. GET INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING IMMEDIATELY. AS A LAST RESORT, GET INSIDE A DITCH AND COVER YOUR HEAD. THIS WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1200 GMT SATURDAY.
lol pat
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:


Yes, because GFS has been predictin this storm for lyke 3 days now, and NAM has been for lyke 2 days now. Ana, and Bill will be here quicker then we are expecting, probably by Saturday of next week.


Actually since the last week of May. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
232. IKE
12Z ECMWF
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just had one comment to make regarding the computer model hype and its something that I've stated before. There is no computer model, forecaster, or person that knows exactly what will happen. Remember that Mother Nature follows its own rules and has always been unpredictable. We must all remember that all the computer models offer are guidance and shouldn't taken to be truth. Without an actual disturbance to track, this is all speculation.

I remember you a couple years ago seeing every model that had a system developing you believed...Im glad you came around over time...

Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1669
Quoting Makoto1:
I'm more interested in that mid-latitude low it's trying to build at 1003 mb near the Indiana-Ohio border since it's just west of me o__o


***Issues Ghost Storm Warning for Makoto1***

Where are you in Ohio Makoto? I lived in Columbus before relocating to Hurricane Alley (aka Ft Myers, FL) about 4 yrs ago
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:


Yes, because GFS has been predictin this storm for lyke 3 days now, and NAM has been for lyke 2 days now. Ana, and Bill will be here quicker then we are expecting, probably by Saturday of next week.


And if what you say is true, its not a ghost storm then.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...."You will be Visited by 3 Global Model Spirits tonight..expect the First at the Hour of 2300 Zulu"...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Post 216 Ossgss

If Press shows up in that I'm not going!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All we've got is an area of disturbed weather over Central America. This area could spawn development anywhere within the next 10 days, but likely later rather than sooner because conditions are still rather hostile in the Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Live camera from WSVN 7 in Miami. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 275 - 225

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
70 °F
Overcast