El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Vortex95:
Adrian! I would suggest scowering the internet for answers such as "getting rid of realtime sharing bar" plus always as a pre caution run a spyware/virus scan to make sure it is not an adware in disgise some newer ones attack your comp and only are active in more popular websites (to lure to into useing in false sense of security). However in your case I would doubt it but I would suggest doing both.


Fixed...issue was under privacy settings.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Local weather guy in West Palm is talking about the possible Caribbean storm. Says its a wait and see, but is should move north.


That's interesting, who was it? They are usually rather standoffish, especially in the early season.
Quoting Levi32:


Way to go NWS Miami for not staying glued to the GFS. Nice mentioning of stronger ridge in other models over SW Atlantic.


Hard to argue with 155 years of climatology which shows north or nw movement with most anything that forms down there. GFS is on crack, it will come around soon enough though.
.
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Quoting sfla82:

what are looking at? A rain storm? or more?


The possible tropical storm in the Caribbean next week.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Where have you been?? We've been talking about it for a couple of days now. LOL

what are looking at? A rain storm? or more?
I can't believe that Jamaica is possibly being targeted by systems already
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Quoting sfla82:


Didn't know there was a storm in the Caribbean....LOL. I doubt this will form!


Where have you been?? We've been talking about it for a couple of days now. LOL
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Local weather guy in West Palm is talking about the possible Caribbean storm. Says its a wait and see, but is should move north.


Didn't know there was a storm in the Caribbean....LOL. I doubt this will form!
WOW!! The temperature dropped 20 degrees in one hour.
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Afternoon all

Little bit of a spin at 7n 85w...
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Local weather guy in West Palm is talking about the possible Caribbean storm. Says its a wait and see, but is should move north.
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i also evacuated for eloise back in the 70s. went to dothan and the storm followed us to dothan and had a hard time getting back because of trees on the highways. this was back when labor day was over there was only a 1000 people in destin.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Look at the bottom it says (real time sharing on or off).Just wanna remove that bar


I looked again I don't see that.
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Quoting scottsvb:
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just had one comment to make regarding the computer model hype and its something that I've stated before. There is no computer model, forecaster, or person that knows exactly what will happen. Remember that Mother Nature follows its own rules and has always been unpredictable. We must all remember that all the computer models offer are guidance and shouldn't taken to be truth. Without an actual disturbance to track, this is all speculation.

I remember you a couple years ago seeing every model that had a system developing you believed...Im glad you came around over time...



Thanks. Over the past couple years, I've been trying to become a more efficient and more objective forecaster since I saw my immaturity back then and knew that if I had continued down that path, I wasn't going anywhere in meteorology. It helps when you got well-respected bloggers to model after like yourself, StormW, Drakoen, Weather456, Adrian, etc. Studying the way you all go about performing analysis and delivering forecasts has helped me develop a new forecasting approach.
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Quoting hahaguy:


I don't got a white bar on you tube.


Look at the bottom it says (real time sharing on or off).Just wanna remove that bar
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting hurricane23:
Any ideas on how to remove the new white bar at the bottom of my youtube page? Really annoying.


I don't got a white bar on you tube.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Any ideas on how to remove the new white bar at the bottom of my youtube page? Really annoying.


youtube.com home page has nothing like that for me.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26585
I live on the west side of Jacksonville, our plan, should we evacuate, is to drive all people and pets 6 hours to Marietta, GA where my sister lives. Now, we do not even live in an evac zone according to the greater Jax phone book. I personally would not want to witness 156+ mph winds and I can bet my life that my four kids wouldn't either. Understanding that you have to consider the size of the storm and how far the winds extend from the center, I wouldn't want to wake up in the middle of the night looking at the stars wondering where my roof was. I figure when the winds take my anemometer off the roof, it's time to leave. LOL! (I'm kidding)
Quoting presslord:
and nobody with any sense would want to stay in Columbia....
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41 mph gust at the airport Link
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Any ideas on how to remove the new white bar at the bottom of my youtube page? Really annoying.
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Unconfirmed 60mph wind gust in Pahokee, Fl.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This would be really hard in Cayman because the largest island is only 11 miles wide at the widest point.
Cayman Islands are mostly flat, is that right? How high above sea level? Do you shelter in place. Do you build your homes on stilts like we do here along the coast?
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Quoting MrstormX:
Why go 10 miles inland? You would be much safer going to at least 30 miles inland but as far as you can go is even better



Agreed. We were in Gulf Breeze for Ivan...far enough from the coast to avoid storm surge (barely, it came within a few hundred yards) but still taking enough wind damage to tear off the roof and shred all the trees.
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Quoting hurricane23:
NWS Miami...

EXTENDED FORECAST...

THE LATEST GFS MODEL HAS WEAKEN THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SHIFTED IT TO THE EAST INTO EASTERN CUBA BY END
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE REST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS KEEPS A WEAK
LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CWA FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SHIFT THE
STEERING FLOW BACK TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OVER THE CWA. THIS
WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS FOR NEXT WEEK.



Way to go NWS Miami for not staying glued to the GFS. Nice mentioning of stronger ridge in other models over SW Atlantic.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26585
...well...'as far as I could go' would be...New Zealand...
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Why go 10 miles inland? You would be much safer going to at least 30 miles inland but as far as you can go is even better
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Most places its hard to go only 5 - 10 miles inland and find a place to stay. Plus, if its a Cat 3 or higher, I want to be more than 5-10 miles from the coast! Just my take.
This would be really hard in Cayman because the largest island is only 11 miles wide at the widest point.
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i lived in navarre but stayed in ft walton beach for opal and i saw what happened with the evacuation. i live just 8 miles west now of defuniak springs. it is way too high for storm surge, no rivers or creeks nearby and in the north side of the panhandle the power comes back on faster.
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Well time to get going... gotta 3 - 14 hour a day weekend ahead. If I had enough vacation, I'd use it. Y'all have a great weekend and Happy Blob watching
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
EVACUATION ROUTE: If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "Florida", you live in a low-lying area.)



The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.



LOL.
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There is no general rule of thumb for evacuation. Every home location is a bit different. You need to know where you are on the map and where you are going to be if need be. Here is my area as an example.

Link
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


My friends who went through Ivan would beg to differ


Scariest night of my life...15 miles inland. What a monster that sucker was! :(
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


He was just quoting humor from Dave Barry HURRICANE SEASON CAN MAKE A STORM SHUDDER


LOL.... I was just going back to an earlier comment about arguing on the blog
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NWS Miami...

EXTENDED FORECAST...

THE LATEST GFS MODEL HAS WEAKEN THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SHIFTED IT TO THE EAST INTO EASTERN CUBA BY END
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE REST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS KEEPS A WEAK
LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CWA FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SHIFT THE
STEERING FLOW BACK TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OVER THE CWA. THIS
WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS FOR NEXT WEEK.

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Quoting stillwaiting:


most people should have to evacuate only about 5-10 miles inland in our state!!!


He was just quoting humor from Dave Barry HURRICANE SEASON CAN MAKE A STORM SHUDDER
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and nobody with any sense would want to stay in Columbia....
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Of course these are just basic precautions. As the hurricane draws near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.
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Most places its hard to go only 5 - 10 miles inland and find a place to stay. Plus, if its a Cat 3 or higher, I want to be more than 5-10 miles from the coast! Just my take.
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Quoting eye2theskies:


LMAO!!

Sooo... What's the plan for Tornado Preparedness after I relocate to Nebraska?


...Pack your bags and go to New Mexico!:)
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Quoting stillwaiting:


most people should have to evacuate only about 5-10 miles inland in our state!!!
Here, if everyone evacuated only 5-10 miles inland - they would stand out in the rain. Not enough hotels, homes, shelters etc to shelter that many people. Next big city is Columbia, which fills quickly. Some folks could not find a room any closer in than Greenville, Aiken and Atlanta. Lot's of folks live on the coast - so if you are one of those who plan to get a hotel room, 5-10 miles inland - best leave early.
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Quoting stillwaiting:


most people should have to evacuate only about 5-10 miles inland in our state!!!


My friends who went through Ivan would beg to differ
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Quoting mossyhead:
have we started recruiting the donut chasers yet? we need observant chasers who know how to use their gps units to give us correct locations of the donuts.


Are you talking about donut hurricanes?? lol
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26585
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

IN THIS PROCESS...IT WILL INDUCE THE NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH 30-36 HRS...WHILE FAVORING FORMATION OF A CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. THE LATEST RUN (12Z) OF THE GFS FAVORS A SLOWER EVOLUTION/DISPLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE THAN ON THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...WITH LATEST EVOLUTION CLOSER TO WHAT THE ECMWF SHOWS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GOLFO DE LOS MOSQUITOS/ BOCAS DEL TORO PANAMA BY 36-42 HRS...AND THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS/PUERTO LEMPIRA BY 72-84 HRS.
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Quoting mossyhead:
have we started recruiting the donut chasers yet? we need observant chasers who know how to use their gps units to give us correct locations of the donuts.


Link
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
EVACUATION ROUTE: If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "Florida", you live in a low-lying area.)



The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.



most people should have to evacuate only about 5-10 miles inland in our state!!!
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have we started recruiting the donut chasers yet? we need observant chasers who know how to use their gps units to give us correct locations of the donuts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting eye2theskies:


LMAO!!

Sooo... What's the plan for Tornado Preparedness after I relocate to Nebraska?


Go to the NE corner of the basement -- Bend over - Put your head between tour legs - kiss your butt goodbye
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.