El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 2009hurricane:
But CybrTeddy, this future El Nino might not lack its conditions. We have late season cold fronts; that's a sign


2004 did too, Hurricane Charley was forced into Florida by one. And that was Mid August.
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Some News Coverage on the tropical threat:

Link
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Flash Flood Warning
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
452 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

FLC086-052330-
/O.CON.KMFL.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090605T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MIAMI-DADE FL-
452 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

AT 448 PM EDT...AN OFF DUTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE
REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED
AREA WITH FLOOD WATERS REACHING THE HEADLIGHTS OF CARS ON MIAMI
BEACH.


LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MIAMI BEACH
AND THE CITY OF MIAMI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 2576 8013 2573 8021 2573 8024 2582 8024
2584 8018 2583 8017 2576 8018 2576 8017
2578 8014 2585 8014 2586 8011 2582 8011

$$

TINGLER
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
It appears the Panama low is moving into the Atlantic. I am curious, very curious of this area.
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Here we go. Link
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I'm out to play tennis, later all.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
18Z run of the GFS should start soon.

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366. Inyo
I'm moving from California to Vermont... I am sad to miss the El Nino, in Vermont it doesn't seem to do much, maybe slightly less cold.
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Wx Update, Interim Tropical, Fri5, 11a
(Caribwx.com)
I assess the risk of some significant Tropical feature influencing weather in the W half of the Caribbean, and eventually maybe GOMEX / FL / Bahamas / W Atlantic sufficiently-high that we need to begin discussing it.

MODELS:
--12z NAM lifts squalls from SW Caribbean waters S of 12N thru tomorrow to mostly N of 12N tomorrow night / mostly N of Providencia during Sun7 / throughout waters btwn Jamaica-Caymans-E Honduras Mon8 / forming 1008mb LO near or SW of Caymans Mon8 night, moving N. I believe NAM is too-fast in all respects.
--06z GFS shifts squalls W of 80W in SW Caribbean tomorrow night / moves squalls N in waters W of 80W with disturbance along NicaraguanCoast Sun7 thru Wed10 & eventually intensifies a Tropical LO off Honduras-Nicaragua border Wed10-Thu11 / moving slowly N-NE thru Caymans-Jamaica area Fri12 thru Sun14 / across Cuba into Bahamas Sun14-Mon15 / NE thru Bermuda Wed17.
--00z NOGAPS offers a compromise on timing & track, with LO gradually strengthening off Nicaragua-Honduras Mon8 / passing Caymans Tue9-Wed10 / moving N toward Cuba.
--00z Euro is a bit slower yet...with squally TROF N NicaraguanCoast Sun7 night / remaining a TROF as it lifts thru Caymans-Jamaica thru Wed10 / thru Cuba into Bahamas Thu11 / N-NE in Atlantic thereafter...but leaves piece of disturbed weather in Caribbean which may try to form a LO near Caymans Fri12-Sat13 / supplying squalls to Bahamas that weekend / supporting severe weather along a FRONT coming off the US E Coast Sun14-Mon15.
--Canadian: oddly fails to develop a LO.

My Opinion:
Given divergent solutions, the faster track of NAM is extremely unlikely, and even the somewhat-slower NOGAPS is probably too-fast. I'd favor a GFS/Euro solution...if there is a LO, it may lie in waters near Honduras-Nicaragua border early-to-middle of next week & eventually lift N thru waters W of Jamaica & E of 85W (possibly not far from Caymans) during 2nd half of next week / across some part of Cuba toward the weekend of Sat13-Sun14 & into the Bahamas/FL/W Atlantic areas thereafter.

Sub-Tropical Atlantic RIDGE is far too-strong to allow LO to move NE from Bahamas to Bermuda next week...but by mid-June it could weaken, possibly allowing a track anywhere in W Atlantic.

There's an equal chance this feature remains an open TROF (instead of a closed LO). We'll explore the potential effects of both solutions in Regional Email Forecasts for the Bahamas & W Caribbean...coming later this afternoon...Chris.

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Quoting 2009hurricane:
If we do get a weak El Nino, then the season might be like 1983, 1991-1994 without Bob, Andrew, Emily, and Gordon, 1997, and 2006!!!!!


2004 was a weak El Nino.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
456...you should know better, silly- Link


lol, I know but actually I'm not home I got lost in a conversation.
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Quoting Funkadelic:
Hey guys, Im in Deerfield Fl right now. Sky is black but no rain.. Should I keep an eye on this storm in the carribean? Could it affect Fl? thanks for the help


Keep an eye on it? Yes. Could it affect Florida? Uncertain at this point, and it's best not to guess until or if we have a storm. However tropical moisture will be advecting to the north during the next 6-10 days and could give Florida more rain at the very least.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
456...you should know better, silly- Link


Lol at all you guys.....I'm pretty sure it was a rhetorical question.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting StormJunkie:
nrti - almost looks like the 18z NAM is trying to spawn it out of that area; or am I misinterpreting; as I often do?


Looks to me out of the Panama area, but it does show a split, leaving your swirl in the EP.
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456...you should know better, silly- Link
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Quoting Weather456:
Do we have an invest?


We may get one soon, the question is will it be in the EPAC or Caribbean.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting Weather456:
Do we have an invest?


90B in the Indian Ocean and 95W in the West Pacific.
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355. JRRP
Quoting Weather456:
Do we have an invest?

no
:S
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
Quoting StormJunkie:
Afternoon all

Little bit of a spin at 7n 85w...


Too far south for spin up, I'd say, at this point.
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NAM handles the trough split better than the GFS....places the upper-level piece over western Cuba at 84 hours north of the presumed TS.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Do we have an invest?
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Most places you only have to travel tens of miles to get out of the lower elevations. Why travel hundreds? Seems like it gives the people who really need to get out the opportunity to do so.
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Low-level turning at 7N 85W......Mid-level turning at 8N 78W near Panama.

Another thing that may happen here is that the tropical wave along 89W may run off to the west into the EPAC with one of the vortices, while the other one near Panama stays with the Columbian low and slowly drifts NNW near Nicuragua.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
nrti - almost looks like the 18z NAM is trying to spawn it out of that area; or am I misinterpreting; as I often do?
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Quoting hurricane556:
18z nam is pretty bullish.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_084l.gif


I would say so, sheesh. Quite a change.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Double post happening to me too. WU seems to act up when there are a lot of people logged on.
Thanks.
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343. Further south too.
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18z nam is pretty bullish.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_084l.gif
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
stormwatcherCI

Thanks. Would love to visit the Cayman Islands. someday. But during hurricane season, I think I will visit Nebraska!
It would be a trip you would never forget. I think it is one of the most beautiful places you would ever see and if you dive it would be unforgettable. I am orginally from the US but my father is from here. He left when he was 13 and is now 72. My first trip here was in 1965 and I swore when I finished school I was moving here. That happened in Feb 1973 and I have been here ever since. Wouldn't live anywhere else in the world.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sorry about that. Computer giving some trouble.


Double post happening to me too. WU seems to act up when there are a lot of people logged on.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Thanks nrti, wait and see as always. Pretty vigorous swirl there none the less.


The 00Z UKM had a storm in that area:

000
WTNT80 EGRR 050600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.06.2009

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 8.6N 85.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.06.2009 8.6N 85.8W WEAK
12UTC 07.06.2009 7.9N 86.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.06.2009 9.2N 86.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.06.2009 9.6N 88.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.06.2009 9.0N 87.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.06.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050445


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stormwatcherCI

Thanks. Would love to visit the Cayman Islands. someday. But during hurricane season, I think I will visit Nebraska!
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IR Loop of the area south of Panama.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Sorry about that. Computer giving some trouble.
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Thanks nrti, wait and see as always. Pretty vigorous swirl there none the less.
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
Cayman Islands are mostly flat, is that right? How high above sea level? Do you shelter in place. Do you build your homes on stilts like we do here along the coast?
Highest point in Grand Cayman is 60 ft above sea level. Most people shelter in their homes although we have designated shelters. During Ivan one of the biggest shelters received severe damage and the people there had to be tied together with ropes and moved somewhere else. No, most of the homes are not on stilts. I think the one thing that helps us is no rivers or lakes. We had some places with up to 12 ft of water but the worst damage was on the south coast which is where I live. Yes,the Cayman Islands are basically flat, no hills or mountains anywhere.
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
Cayman Islands are mostly flat, is that right? How high above sea level? Do you shelter in place. Do you build your homes on stilts like we do here along the coast?
Highest point in Grand Cayman is 60 ft above sea level. Most people shelter in their homes although we have designated shelters. During Ivan one of the biggest shelters received severe damage and the people there had to be tied together with ropes and moved somewhere else. No, most of the homes are not on stilts. I think the one thing that helps us is no rivers or lakes. We had some places with up to 12 ft of water but the worst damage was on the south coast which is where I live. Yes,the Cayman Islands are basically flat, no hills or mountains anywhere.
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


That's interesting, who was it? They are usually rather standoffish, especially in the early season.


Eric Burris on WPBF 25.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Little bit of a spin at 7n 85w...

Any takers?

So is that our potential feature nrti?


Don't think so, but could be. Looking more towards Panama.
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October 14th 2008

June 5th 2009

Keeps looking more and more like the cause as more info comes out, pretty sad if you ask me.

Known faulty equipment & Pilot error
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
Cayman Islands are mostly flat, is that right? How high above sea level? Do you shelter in place. Do you build your homes on stilts like we do here along the coast?
Highest point in Grand Cayman is 60 ft above sea level. Most people shelter in their homes although we have designated shelters. During Ivan one of the biggest shelters received severe damage and the people there had to be tied together with ropes and moved somewhere else. No, most of the homes are not on stilts. I think the one thing that helps us is no rivers or lakes. We had some places with up to 12 ft of water but the worst damage was on the south coast which is where I live.
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Miami-Dade county has consistently told its residents to travels dozens of miles not 100s in regards to evacuation. If you live on the beach any area west of US 1 is safe for you to hunker down in.

MAP Link
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Little bit of a spin at 7n 85w...

Any takers?

So is that our potential feature nrti?
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What if I didn't want to say good bye.....good bye. Jhonny?
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Afternoon all

Little bit of a spin at 7n 85w...


Loop
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Quoting Vortex95:
Adrian! I would suggest scowering the internet for answers such as "getting rid of realtime sharing bar" plus always as a pre caution run a spyware/virus scan to make sure it is not an adware in disgise some newer ones attack your comp and only are active in more popular websites (to lure to into useing in false sense of security). However in your case I would doubt it but I would suggest doing both.


Fixed...issue was under privacy settings.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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