El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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WW-2 D-day Forecasts
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On the gray dawn of Monday, June 5th, 1944, rain slashed into the German bunkers and large waves pounded the beaches of France. This was the morning originally chosen for the Allied invasion of Europe, but the Allies postponed the invasion by 24 hours. This decision saved the Allied forces from certain destruction in the English Channel.

Six forecasters working in three different teams were responsible for the D-Day forecasts. The American team used an analogue method that compared the current weather with past conditions. Their forecast was overly optimistic and the British Admiralty and the British Meteorological Office urged delay. They were aided by the brilliant Norwegian theoretician Sverre Petterssen who used high altitude observations in his forecasts.

In the early hours of June 5th, under stormy skies of England, the forecasters advised General Eisenhower that a very short break in the weather a day later would allow the invasion to go ahead. On Tuesday, June 6th, under barely tolerable conditions, the largest amphibious landing force ever put together landed on the beaches of Normandy.

Ironically the German meteorologists were aware of new storms moving in from the North Atlantic, but they had decided that the weather would be too bad to permit an invasion attempt. The Germans were caught completely off guard. Their high command had relaxed and many officers were on leave; their airplanes were grounded; their naval vessels absent.

This marked the beginning of the end of the war in Europe and it depended on what were arguably the three most critical forecasts in history -- two successful ones by the Allies and one failure by the Germans.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
as of right now there are no threats to the U.S. we have to get a storm first...
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Quoting IKE:


I don't think the GFS has a great handle on it.


And also overdoing it.

Neither do I, it is developing features all over the place. The previous runs were more feasible in terms of motion.
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I think we use cyclo genesis pretty frequently on the blog.
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Any threats for the Cont. US?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Please explain in simple terms what that would mean for the Cayman Islands .


For now, a broad area of moisture is the best bet since we are uncertain about tropical cyclone formation.
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419. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
Dual cyclogenesis appears when conditions are expected to be very favorable and there is a vigoruous low pressure feature present. It happens in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans and normally results in a large tropical cyclone.


I don't think the GFS has a great handle on it.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Please explain in simple terms what that would mean for the Cayman Islands .

and for Jamaica also
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416. Rodek
That Goshen Co, Wyoming Tornado forming live on Weather Channel was amazing!

It was neat to see the anatomy of the thunderstorm being explained. This led me to wonder about tropical system development. When a Tropical Storm or hurricane is forming, are there water spouts in the development area?

I've seen them form during the hurricane while I lived in Florida but am curious about their development during the genesis of a hurricane.

Can any of you enlighten me?

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Not sounding good for next week.
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New Orleans
World War II Museum to commemorate D-Day all weekend long

by The Times-Picayune
Friday June 05, 2009, 2:21 PM


Patriotic music, panel discussions, re-enactments, swing dancing and a special commemorative cake will be among the offerings Saturday and Sunday at the National World War II Museum to celebrate the 65th anniversary of the D-Day landing.

The free events will run Saturday from 9 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. and Sunday from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. inside and outside the museum at 945 Magazine St. A schedule is available at the museum's Web site, www.nationalww2museum.org.

D-Day veterans Tom Blakey, Jim Livaudais and Mike Mervosh will tell their stories, and the American Belles, a trio patterned on the Andrews Sisters, will sing patriotic songs of the 1940s. Machines that helped the Allies win the war, including a Sherman tank and a Jeep, will be on display, and visitors will be able to learn about parachute-making and the building of Higgins boats, the landing craft that, Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower said, played a key role in the Allied victory.

These events will be free, and World War II veterans will be admitted free to see the museum's exhibits.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
Quoting Weather456:
Dual cyclogenesis appears when conditions are expected to be very favorable and there is a vigoruous low pressure feature present. It happens in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans and normally results in a large tropical cyclone.
Please explain in simple terms what that would mean for the Cayman Islands .
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Cyclo Genesis
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
Never mind its coming back...Mike Bettis is evacuating now.
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And the tornado is gone. That sucks...some school from Texas spent all that setting up equipment.
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Dual cyclogenesis appears when conditions are expected to be very favorable and there is a vigoruous low pressure feature present. It happens in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans and normally results in a large tropical cyclone.
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406. IKE
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I think we focus too much on the atlantic why don't we get hyped up on storms in the Pacific
speaking of which that blob is very persistent, i'd say a cyclone is forming there


Because they usually don't affect anybody and are fish-storms.
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WOW!! You could see inside of the twister at one point. Amazing footage!
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404. IKE
Quoting futuremet:
18Z GFS is forecasting dual tropical cyclogenesis


It leaves one down by Nicaragua for days....
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N Miami Intercoastal Waterway Webcam
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
oh ok.... never been to miami but would like to make it one day
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18Z GFS is forecasting dual tropical cyclogenesis. I am leaning more towards the NAM forecast.
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Here we go again...GFS showing 2 storms in the Caribbean. Link
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Hey GFS, you better leave Haiti alone!
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
if its raining on the beach wouldn't the water go out into the ocean? maybe that's a dumb question but just wondering...


Its filling up in the streets.
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U of Miami webcam
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
if its raining on the beach wouldn't the water go out into the ocean? maybe that's a dumb question but just wondering...
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Radar of the tornado TWC is showing Link

The team from Texas set up their instruments.
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Quoting Patrap:
Miami dosent have Levee's or Canals?
Miami has many canals.
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Quoting Patrap:
Miami dosent have Levee's or Canals?


We have a great water management system. but not on the beach, which is where all the rain fell.
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Miami dosent have Levee's or Canals?
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5 days out and still sitting in the NW Caribbean. Link
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Vortex 2 has found a tornado in Wyoming...live on the weather channel.
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I think we focus too much on the atlantic why don't we get hyped up on storms in the Pacific
speaking of which that blob is very persistent, i'd say a cyclone is forming there
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Quoting MrstormX:
I wonder if we may get an interest soon within the next 60 hours in the Carib.


imvho, the invest will be in the Epac...Looks like 7n 85w is trying to build some convection over that pretty decent swirl.
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West and weak Link
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I wonder if we may get an interest soon within the next 60 hours in the Carib.
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cars floating in intersections, thats a lot of water.
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Issued by The National Weather Service
Miami, FL
5:32 pm EDT, Fri., Jun. 5, 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... EASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF... MIAMI BEACH... MIAMI... KEY BISCAYNE... CORAL GABLES...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 530 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE EXCESSIVE RAIN FALLING ACROSS EASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIAMI BEACH. A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED CARS FLOATING IN SOUTH BEACH AT THE INTERSECTION OF MICHIGAN AVE AND 11TH STREET. DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED THAT 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER SOUTH BEACH... WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ORANGE BOWL... LITTLE HAITI... EL PORTAL... COCONUT GROVE... OPA-LOCKA... NORTH MIAMI BEACH... NORTH MIAMI... MIAMI SHORES... LIBERTY CITY AND AVENTURA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS... HIGHWAYS... STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. REMEMBER... TURN AROUND... DON'T DROWN!

&&
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
Good Evening everyone!

Well the good news is that everyone in Miami is getting drought relief... the bad news is its flooding.
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Quoting 2009hurricane:
If we do get a weak El Nino, then the season might be like 1983, 1991-1994 without Bob, Andrew, Emily, and Gordon, 1997, and 2006!!!!!


Your asking for alot there!
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378. JeffM
A few golfball-sized hail reports in South Beach/Downtown Miami.
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Quoting 2009hurricane:
But CybrTeddy, this future El Nino might not lack its conditions. We have late season cold fronts; that's a sign


2004 did too, Hurricane Charley was forced into Florida by one. And that was Mid August.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23014

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.