El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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What I want to know is what the forecast going to be for the temps in that region, when or if this system comes to term?
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Looking a IR rgb in the gulf on the nhc site looks like something just west of naples, fl trying to spin up. Sneaky little low may pass over S. Fl. tonight. I believe just more heavy rain though. Anybody see that.
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Tommorrow,my blog entry will show the D-Day mets work in detail.

Pat...I'll be VERY interested to read this...
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:
What possible impacts could we see in Jamaica? Anything wind wise?


Umm...who knows? Its not even a storm yet...just some disturbed weather that has the potential to become something.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
What possible impacts could we see in Jamaica? Anything wind wise?
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Thanks nrti...Will be interesting to see if it can sustain any convection and work down.

pws, there is a healthy swirl at about 7n 85w. Now we know it is mostly mid level at this point.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


7N 85W is the closest thing to an invest right now from what I can tell. The very center of the image above. If convection can continue to expand in that area...

Not hard to spot the low level swirl there on visible.


TPC thinks its mid level. From the TWD for the East Pacific...

WEAK MAINLY MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT NEAR 06N85W ALONG THE ITCZ
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Quoting Patrap:
Satellite Imagery from the University of Miami
There is no endorsement of NWHHC by the University of Miami.

Loops are for informational purposes only. Please refer to local emergency management officials for official information





I love this loop image, and stormjunkie i do believe the closest i can think of to become a Invest is something left from this front that is pushin through SC right now wit a Low Pressure. Probably lingery off the coast like every other low pressure does. That's how TD-01 formed.
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This could be the most monumental day in tornado research history. That was just simply amazing to watch on the Weather Channel and it will teach us all so much more than we have ever known regarding tornadoes. About time that the Vortex2 project gets some results.
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SJ, what are you referring to?
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Right now it looks like someone painted the rain outside, thats how solid of a wall of rain I have going right now.
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PBIA had a 41 mph gust earlier this afternoon. Link

Unconfirmed report of a 60 mph gust in Pahokee.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112


7N 85W is the closest thing to an invest right now from what I can tell. The very center of the image above. If convection can continue to expand in that area...

Not hard to spot the low level swirl there on visible.
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nice pic WPB
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461. 7544
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
anyone got a canoe I can borrow, its pouring like I have never seen here in Northern Broward County. Heavy lightning, possible hail.


no one expected this not even the local mets also 73 mph winds at north perry airport in broward county
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NexSat View of the GOM Sector,Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Thats a ULL swinging thru and across the Deep South,..expect cooler temps and Dewpoints behind it.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Look what an airplane does to air- Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Pat, is it me or is something trying to form just south of the panhandle?
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ASCAT

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Would someone tell me whats causing the # of severe storms to pound on the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area? Hail up the ying yang and a light show that is still going on


If you look at the water vapor and visible imagery it seems the thunderstorms are being generated in a diffluent zone aided by surface inflow off the Gulf ahead of advancing frontal system.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Anytime you see my Handle here,just click on it to see my Current Entry
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833

AOI #1

AOI #2
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anyone got a canoe I can borrow, its pouring like I have never seen here in Northern Broward County. Heavy lightning, possible hail.
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Quoting Patrap:
Tommorrow,my blog entry will show the D-Day mets work in detail.

And I'll also Honor the Brave Allied Force than came Ashore to Free Europe of the Evil that had scourged the Continent for years.


can't wait to read it PAT! remind tomorrow when you see me on to take a peek at it... I sometimes forget to check in on things....
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Satellite Imagery from the University of Miami
There is no endorsement of NWHHC by the University of Miami.

Loops are for informational purposes only. Please refer to local emergency management officials for official information



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Tommorrow,my blog entry will show the D-Day mets work in detail.

And I'll also Honor the Brave Allied Force than came Ashore to Free Europe of the Evil that had scourged the Continent for years.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Just log in, Good Evening folks. I see that the gfs still have the swime flu!
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Would someone tell me whats causing the # of severe storms to pound on the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area? Hail up the ying yang and a light show that is still going on
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Someone at work today was saying they saw somewhere that next week Florida could have something to watch. I just laughed.
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Yes Pat it makes me really appreciate those men... I think they should be honored for their heroic service to the free world as meteorologist. The whole world could be a different place today if it wasn't for those guys or we could have lost many thousands more people
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Here's what the TPC thinks in 72 hrs

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
All El Nino,NAO,SST Bs aside,MA nature always seems to be 4 steps ahead of all the predictors.

A testament to How little we understand the Heat Pumps of the World,.The Mighty Devastating Tropical Cyclone.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Oh yes, I remember, one after another!
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Even Hawaii had a hurricane during the 92 El Nino.
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Naples, remember those lovely days when we had 4 majors hit the state of Florida?
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at least I hope he is... Just because models are showing we are going into a moderate El Nino doesn't mean that there will be no land falling events... anything can happen... that's fact
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The 12Z EURO had a more possible solution
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Met's in WW-2 were the unsung hero's of many Battles,none more important than D-Day.

They did it without Sats,Radar..or all the specialized gear now available. Experience wit,and tenacity ru the days before the Invasion.
Eisenhower weighed his GO decision till the last forecaster was done.

A great History lesson for any aspiring Met student.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
anything that forms down by Jamaica is something to be watched. The sst's in that area are just crazy, so I would be watching as Masters said, that area.
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I think he was being sarcastic...
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Quoting naplesdreamer28:
So having El Nino means no storms for the US?


And 2004's El Nino.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
So having El Nino means no storms for the US?



Clearly 2009hurricane completely forgot about the 1992 El Nino.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
PAT--
that was a great read! I never new that so much of the success of D-Day was hinged upon the weather and 3 meteorologists forcast.
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The forecast should be more tenable over the next 24 hours, as this system materializes.
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So having El Nino means no storms for the US?

Quoting 2009hurricane:
No naplesdreamer28, not this year. EL NINO!!!!!
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Its Okay to forecast no development,or Excellent weather as well.
Calamity dont ride the wind of Bloggers,let alone any Human.

Great weather on tap here for the Entire Weekend. Cool actually.
Never Hit 80F here today..

Gawgus..simply Gawgus.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
GFS has the storm going from NW Caribbean to EPAC back to the Caribbean. LOL??
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
WW-2 D-day Forecasts
Listen in RealAudio


On the gray dawn of Monday, June 5th, 1944, rain slashed into the German bunkers and large waves pounded the beaches of France. This was the morning originally chosen for the Allied invasion of Europe, but the Allies postponed the invasion by 24 hours. This decision saved the Allied forces from certain destruction in the English Channel.

Six forecasters working in three different teams were responsible for the D-Day forecasts. The American team used an analogue method that compared the current weather with past conditions. Their forecast was overly optimistic and the British Admiralty and the British Meteorological Office urged delay. They were aided by the brilliant Norwegian theoretician Sverre Petterssen who used high altitude observations in his forecasts.

In the early hours of June 5th, under stormy skies of England, the forecasters advised General Eisenhower that a very short break in the weather a day later would allow the invasion to go ahead. On Tuesday, June 6th, under barely tolerable conditions, the largest amphibious landing force ever put together landed on the beaches of Normandy.

Ironically the German meteorologists were aware of new storms moving in from the North Atlantic, but they had decided that the weather would be too bad to permit an invasion attempt. The Germans were caught completely off guard. Their high command had relaxed and many officers were on leave; their airplanes were grounded; their naval vessels absent.

This marked the beginning of the end of the war in Europe and it depended on what were arguably the three most critical forecasts in history -- two successful ones by the Allies and one failure by the Germans.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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