El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Testing - just got a new computer - testing
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Quoting Tazmanian:
El Niño this winter yay good news for CA
mild wet winter taz no snow for ne lots of rain for sw
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El Niño this winter yay good news for CA
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How about some volcanic lightning or a timelapse of redoubt to fill in ? The eruption item is interesting.






Redoubt Eruption March 27 2009 from Bretwood Higman on Vimeo.
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Quoting TampaMishy:
Hi Keeper!


Hi Michelle......you been good!
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LSU 9, Rice 4
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Link

seventh son of a seventh son
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2009 atlantic hurricane outlook
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I think its a slow night because of all the models are starting to firm up on *something* happening next week, but nothing until then. Nothing to -----cast until it forms.
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quiet in here tonight
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how are ya TM
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Hi Keeper!
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Looks like they are starting to point the finger on the Airbus item to the fly by wire item more and more. I believe they will find the boxes soon. That will clear up the questions hopefully. Slow night ?

Link

Link
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Quoting TampaMishy:
What could be?
weather can always be deadly

hi TM nice to see ya
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AOI
MARK
11N/80W
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AOI
MARK
20.3N/48.7W
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Do you ever wonder why Meteorologist always make things more complicated than what the situation really is? I used to be that way but if you just simplfy the situation, it is actually really easy to forecast. I also hate to see this 50% chance stuff. It is either going to happen or it isnt. Just make a call.
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I guess everyone left?
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It could be a scary next week...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep tomorrow could be a deadly day
What could be?
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504. JRRP
2006
Link
2009
Link
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3 run homer in the 5th, LSU 5,Rice 4

GEAUX TIGERS!
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.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
yep tomorrow could be a deadly day
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
mother nature finally give it up now with more data we need more data to confirm the data


And apparently tomorrow might be a good day for getting that too.
Quoting Makoto1:


I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. I'm glad they finally got the data.
mother nature finally give it up now with more data we need more data to confirm the data
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Link

Photos of the water damage in Miami
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Amazing tornado out west and crazy T-storm in Miami. The weather is pretty active today.


Unbelievable stuff...Watch



Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
Amazing tornado out west and crazy T-storm in Miami. The weather is pretty active today.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
TWC is saying this is the most sampled tornado in history.


I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. I'm glad they finally got the data.
TWC is saying this is the most sampled tornado in history.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Holy crap.. Makes me glad to live in Dayton with seeing flooding like that.
Hey like everything else good we probably dont have any more sqeeder trucks down here.
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Quoting hurricane23:
What an evening.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI...KEY BISCAYNE...
CORAL GABLES...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 530 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED
TO INDICATE EXCESSIVE RAIN FALLING ACROSS EASTERN MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIAMI BEACH. A NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED CARS FLOATING IN SOUTH BEACH AT
THE INTERSECTION OF MICHIGAN AVE AND 11TH STREET
. DOPPLER RADAR
HAS ESTIMATED THAT 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER SOUTH
BEACH...WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS


Geez, brings back memories of what Central Florida went through the end of May. Hope your conditions improve.
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This is going to be a record day for weather, the tornado information they collected, the hellish weather for Miami, and the possibility of a system developing.
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI...KEY BISCAYNE...
CORAL GABLES...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 530 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED
TO INDICATE EXCESSIVE RAIN FALLING ACROSS EASTERN MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIAMI BEACH. A NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED CARS FLOATING IN SOUTH BEACH AT
THE INTERSECTION OF MICHIGAN AVE AND 11TH STREET
. DOPPLER RADAR
HAS ESTIMATED THAT 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER SOUTH
BEACH...WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
bro, where did you find that information? I know that we had a nasty light show last night, but hey thats south florida weather for you.
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That happens, we are going to be wishing for rain to come back again. Could set us back into the days of daily mosquito sprayings
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Hey keeper I think we should have a pole on favorite statement or questions. I throw in were is the coc .
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South Florida-Prepare for another round of severe weather tonight/tomorrow then hopefully we'll get some lower dewpoint air for early next week as Pat mentioned(thanks to an abnormally deep[for early June standards] long-wave trough setting up for the east).

Some of the models are trying to forecast a powerful Upper Level Ridge settling on top of central Florida for the 3ed week of June. If that were to happen, we could see a dry streak of days around the 100 degree mark(not wishing for it, just given y'all a heads-up on what the Euro says).
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
PBIA had a 41 mph gust earlier this afternoon. Link

Unconfirmed report of a 60 mph gust in Pahokee.


Miami Beach was an unbelievable site cars were under water in some streets.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
Plywood we had some of the most interesting weather down here today Storms came from the west backtracked from the east and finally from the north trust me we have had enough rain already. It just goes to show the longer the drought the more mother nature seems to try and make up for it reminds me of last year. I was just asking some of the people who know what they are doing to take a look.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
756 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LOWER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 752 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED NUMEROUS
WATERSPOUTS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BAY POINT TO SUGARLOAF
KEY AND MAY MOVE ONSHORE AT ANY TIME. THESE TORNADO PRODUCING
STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

* TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
LOWER SUGARLOAF AND SUGARLOAF KEY
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Five Famous Words and Phrases from the Blog: 2009 Edition

"[Model X] is out to lunch"

"Cyclogenesis"

"Coreolis Effect"

"Poleward"

"Northwest winds"
how about i might be a gearbox gearbox
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Destin, You forgot: How do you want your Crow: Rare, medium rare, medium, well done or seasoned?
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gordy, want me to stick you in downtown Miami? areas of Miami got up to 9 inches of rain in under 2 hours. To give you an idea, a Cadillac Escalade was seen driving through Coral Gables with water up to its hood. Need I say more?
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What I want to know is what the forecast going to be for the temps in that region, when or if this system comes to term?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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