El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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So you really are JFV ¿~)

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
Thanks SSIG

Evening KOTG
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
evening sj
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Good nite everyone....im out! JFV no more wishcasting!......LOL....JUST kidding! Its ok!
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Evening all

Would love to see one of these...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
567. 7544
agree cchsweatherman i notice that alot of action now forming in the straights also that will be moving north by the am wow with miami streets looking like a lake and cars stuck if this little blob doe s go north they could see a repeat of what happen today staytuned
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actually taz shows low shear and decreasing over that 20n 48w area where that little blob is
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Quoting hahaguy:


I wouldn't get anything lower than 1080p


And you can get them pretty well priced right now for last years model. Many of which are 120's. The 480's will be out soon, LCD not Plasma, Plasma is already there.
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Quoting Ossqss:


Unless your big screen is a 1080p or better, don't bother. Bigger is not always better unless the resolution is better. Just my experience. 1366x768 is not going to cut it. That would be equivalent to 720p.


I wouldn't get anything lower than 1080p
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
never try hooking to big screen tv i have a 61 inch in living room and a slighly bigger one in master bedroom


Unless your big screen is a 1080p or better, don't bother. Bigger is not always better unless the resolution is better. Just my experience. 1366x768 is not going to cut it. That would be equivalent to 720p and better than 1080i.
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Could see more storms overnight here across South Florida with a large thunderstorm complex coming off Cuba across the Florida Straits and coming northbound towards the area. The dynamics are still there to maintain this action all the way through South Florida, so I'm expecting more showers and storms during the early morning hours.
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Quoting Acemmett90:
could this blob become something




no the wind shear is way too strong out there right now for any thing
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Quoting Acemmett90:
could this blob become something

mark
20.3n/48.7w
for the blob in question acemmett
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never try hooking to big screen tv i have a 61 inch in living room and a slighly bigger one in master bedroom
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So what is the blob doing? I've been out a while. I just heard Miami flooded.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
53 75 wow but must be destorded i find once i zoom to 200 percent its a little fussy


No it's perfectly clear on the regular settings.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
53 75 wow but must be destorded i find once i zoom to 200 percent its a little fussy


I have no destortion.....i don't even zoom to 200 percent i just keep it at full screen..amazing pic
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Gave the wife a box of Choc...and i got a 75" for Valentines day....amazaing what a box of choc gets one sometimes.........LOL!


See it pays off lol.
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Quoting hahaguy:


DAMN! Now that's how you do it lol.


Gave the wife a box of Choc...and i got a 75" for Valentines day....amazaing what a box of choc gets one sometimes.........LOL!
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53 75 wow but must be destorded i find once i zoom to 200 percent its a little fussy
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Quoting hahaguy:


Before I got my laptop last year I had my computer hooked up to my 53 inch flat screen tv.


I do that but its when I'm in the living room and not sitting right on top of the monitor! Technology is so fun.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


No they aren't......Where are you acquiring this type of info from, TS? LOL. Anyways, good evening all. I'll be in and out because I have sperodic internet access tonight, bloggers.


You need to look again........WOW! Sorry stop wishcasting......LOL
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I got my 75"HD Flat hooked up when i want! You otta see that..WoW!


DAMN! Now that's how you do it lol.
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Quoting hahaguy:


Before I got my laptop last year I had my computer hooked up to my 53 inch flat screen tv.


I got my 75"HD Flat hooked up when i want! You otta see that..WoW!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and i have it all on a 27 inch flat screen monitor


Before I got my laptop last year I had my computer hooked up to my 53 inch flat screen tv.
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Looks like the Models are backing off the Ghost Storm Ana......
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very detailed imagest cane you will like it a lot i went to a buddies apartment the other night still using windows xp with a little 17 inch screen amazing the difference
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Dell - its mostly a gaming computer so I plan on playing a few games once I get it all downloaded. I feel like I'm a kid again.



ok
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Quoting Tazmanian:



what kind of desktop did you get ???


Dell - its mostly a gaming computer so I plan on playing a few games once I get it all downloaded. I feel like I'm a kid again.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and i have it all on a 27 inch flat screen monitor


Wow that's huge. I'm not sure I could handle that!
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Quoting CaneWarning:
KOG - this really is amazing. I got a 20 inch LCD monitor to go along with it and WOW. I feel like I am in a t-storm now when I look at the radar. LOL



what kind of desktop did you get ???
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
mild wet winter taz no snow for ne lots of rain for sw



what about CA??? by the way do you ues yahoo IM???
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and i have it all on a 27 inch flat screen monitor
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KOG - this really is amazing. I got a 20 inch LCD monitor to go along with it and WOW. I feel like I am in a t-storm now when I look at the radar. LOL
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its great how you can open multiply tabs in explorer and the zoom feature is great for sat images
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use vista professial it takes a couple weeks to figure out but i know nothing gets though unless you allow it been running for 2 years now no problem no virus no spy attacks nothing
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This Vista thing will take some getting used to...not bad though just a different look.
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Hi TampaSpin
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yep we can see ya
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Testing - just got a new computer - testing
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.