El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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623. antonio28 12:04 AM AST on June 06, 2009
Thanks.456

how long the gfs takes to finish the run?



average completion time:

00Z - 05Z (1 am)
06Z - 11Z - (7 am)
12Z - 17Z (1 pm)
18Z - 23Z (7 pm
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting ackee:
Has there ever been a june storm before in the SW carrb that made a NE track before ?


Not that I know of, and I don't think this one will either, but it is a possibility, who knows until this little ghost develops..

Check out my site if you want.

www.cyclonezonecz.blogspot.com
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Thanks.456

how long the gfs takes to finish the run?
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Quoting Weather456:


Aletta formed in May 2006

AND

ABPZ30 KNHC 011631
TWSEP
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES WERE OBSERVED DURING MAY IN THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC. ON AVERAGE A TROPICAL STORM FORMS ONCE EVERY OTHER
MAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1999 THAT NO TROPICAL
CYCLONES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



Yea I was wrong but it was a brief little storm.Here is a Little Info on Aletta in 2006 from Wikipedia,

"On May 15, the hurricane season began in the Eastern Pacific basin, which is the area of the northern Pacific Ocean east of 140W.[5] Twelve days later, an area of disturbed weather developed into the first tropical depression of the season, about 190 mi (310 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico. It quickly intensified into a tropical storm, and upon doing so was named Aletta. The storm drifted northeastward toward the coast, bringing light rainfall before turning southward. Wind shear weakened the storm, and on May 31 Aletta dissipated about 200 mi (320 km) west-northwest of where it formed."
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the E PAC sould start cooking here some come late june if not the 1st week off july has far has active
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Quoting Weather456:


Aletta formed in May 2006

AND

ABPZ30 KNHC 011631
TWSEP
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES WERE OBSERVED DURING MAY IN THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC. ON AVERAGE A TROPICAL STORM FORMS ONCE EVERY OTHER
MAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1999 THAT NO TROPICAL
CYCLONES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



Dang.. Remember last year how low active it was? They only got one invest this year so far. We've had 3.
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i dont think will see any name storms out there any time soon
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Just a quick note to those of you who mentioned the thunder/rain in Miami...Here in Wellington, FL (where the 21 polo ponies were poisoned several weeks ago) west of West Palm Beach, we received about 3.3 inches of rain between 3:30 and 8:30 pm today, June 5, 2009.
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Quoting futuremet:


No, 2006...


Aletta formed in May 2006

AND

ABPZ30 KNHC 011631
TWSEP
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES WERE OBSERVED DURING MAY IN THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC. ON AVERAGE A TROPICAL STORM FORMS ONCE EVERY OTHER
MAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1999 THAT NO TROPICAL
CYCLONES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting futuremet:


No, 2006...


You beat me! lol
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Quoting antonio28:
IS GFS 00Z OUT


72 hrs - LINK

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
May 2009 was the first time since 1999 that the Eastern Pacific never had a tropical depression in May.


No, 2006...
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
611. ackee
Has there ever been a june storm before in the SW carrb that made a NE track before ?
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IS GFS 00Z OUT
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May 2009 was the first time since 1999 that the Eastern Pacific never had a tropical depression in May.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I think that so far this year, 5 days into the official start of hurricane season, and I have to opine that we've got information overload going on here that's taking any possibility of any model and blowing it up. This could be a loooong season.
.
We have seen some nice new graphics that are available this year. Pretty pictures.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
So you really are JFV ¿~)


apparently =P
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Quoting Weather456:
Tropical Wave along 55W becomes convectively active as it interacts with diffluent westerly winds. The wave remained relatively inactive as it traversed the tropical Atlantic but it's signature is becoming more defined as it nears the Caribbean. While development is unlikely due upper winds. This is a disturbing pattern we are seeing for the upcoming hurricane season.


Nice catch there
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I second that comment in favor of Ubuntu, or some derivative. Free. Free, and extensive support.
True story: needed to use the scanner at a relative's house. They did not have all of the right driver on their windoze pc abd could not find the disc. Plugged it into my ubuntu laptop, found the support page for that scanner, entered 2 commands, did what I needed to do within 4 minutes. Perfectly. The only OS one could so swiftly do that, that I know of.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Wave along 55W becomes convectively active as it interacts with diffluent westerly winds. The wave remained relatively inactive as it traversed the tropical Atlantic but it's signature is becoming more defined as it nears the Caribbean. While development is unlikely due upper winds, this is a disturbing pattern we are seeing for the upcoming hurricane season.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Nice, cool evening in SE LA. That front cooled us off and dropped the humidity. We commonly have warmer nights than this in February.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
I cant wait till the midnight model runs come in, who's gonna wait for them alongside moi?


Right now, without a disturbance to track or threat out there, there's no point in staying up for the computer model runs. Get some sleep man. Getting too hooked into these computer models. Talking about getting some sleep, peace out everyone and have a good night! I'm signing out.
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Sorry about the blog stall, but had to ask the questions :) Be well -- CUL8R ª¿º
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting CaneWarning:
This Vista thing will take some getting used to...not bad though just a different look.


ew ew ewwwwwwww

Try Kubuntu 9.04 (free) and you'll realize how bad vista is. XP is actually pretty good and is still the standard, and will be for a long time.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


To be honest, I'm not much an expert with the data input into the computer models and the exact factors placed in them. You may want to ask nrti about that.


Thanks, I would certainly be interested in how the models react to known events that don't occur every year or if that is even in most of their programming. Just the Vulcan comin out in me:)

I recall how difficult it was to forecast that part of our weather from a previous blog.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
I started my own daily blog. If anyone is interested... I'm tired of worshipping meteorologists as gods when most of the time theyre as clueless as me about predicting the future. If you're interested:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/winter123/show.html
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Quoting Ossqss:


I was thinking how the models would react to an on-going change from La to N to EL. That would certainly be an anomaly for them to deal with, correct?

That Data really does not exist in usable form for the models>


To be honest, I'm not much an expert with the data input into the computer models and the exact factors placed in them. You may want to ask nrti about that.
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Evening all. Just got back from a graduation - in the rain, yet! - and afterwards dinner at Cheesecake Factory, where the food was quite good but we waited for an hour, standing up, before we were given a table. (Don't they have a bar or waiting area or something? lol)

I'm going back to read the blog on what's going on w/ the S CAR potential system. Back later.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
we could have one strong El Niño by winter
kinda looking forward to that taz i can get use to a snowless winter here in grt lakes after two snowy winters in a row
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592. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like the Models are backing off the Ghost Storm Ana......


?


00Z NAM at 84 hours....

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Quoting KoritheMan:


It is definitely getting time for us to start seeing tropical cyclones develop in the East Pacific.

evening km seems to be a little late not even a depression out there yet we already had one in atlantic which is strange in its self
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590. JRRP
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we could have one strong El Niño by winter
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you better wipe that stuff off your face ws the ass kissing is too much


LMFAO
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening KM, good to see you around


Good evening to you as well.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Right now, I'm not even buying into the computer models since there has been so little support and has been such inconsistency amongst the models. Not only that, but we don't even have the disturbance yet to track and the models could make a basis on. So, for right now, there is no reason to hype or for concern.


I was thinking how the models would react to an on-going change from La to N to EL. That would certainly be an anomaly for them to deal with, correct?

That Data really does not exist in usable form for the models, does it ? >
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Evening KM, good to see you around
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you better wipe that stuff off your face ws the ass kissing is too much


Keeper, you're awesome man. lmao
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Quoting StormJunkie:
I still like the area at 7n 85w...Maybe we just end up with an Epac system like Levi(I think) speculated on a few days ago.


It is definitely getting time for us to start seeing tropical cyclones develop in the East Pacific.
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I still like the area at 7n 85w...Maybe we just end up with an Epac system like Levi(I think) speculated on a few days ago.
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580. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you better wipe that stuff off your face ws the ass kissing is too much


LOL!
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


You're thoughts on our potential Carribean Storm next week, Weatherman?


Right now, I'm not even buying into the computer models since there has been so little support and has been such inconsistency amongst the models. Not only that, but we don't even have the disturbance yet to track and the models could make a basis on. So, for right now, there is no reason to hype or for concern.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening all

Would love to see one of these...


Very nice and with a price, but very efficient compared to the non-LED backlit LCD TV's :(

I will stick with my portable projector and screen, until it gets info the 4 figures :)

Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
you better wipe that stuff off your face ws the ass kissing is too much
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So you really are JFV ¿~)

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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