El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Be careful what you wish for because what you wish for just might come true.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting KoritheMan:
There is nothing wrong with that

This.

Christ, it irritates me when people complain that some of us enjoy experiencing a tropical cyclone.

That enjoyment, however, isn't exactly inhumane as people seem to think. On the contrary, the desire is typically because a major weather event sparked our interest in weather, where we had previously been uninterested in meteorology prior to that phenomena.

I know for myself, my interest in weather started with Tropical Storm Isidore in 2002. I was living in Gonzales, Louisiana at the time, and despite being on Isidore's west side, and despite his maximum sustained winds only being at 65 mph, that was the most powerful tropical storm that I've been through to this day. And oddly enough, Isidore produced a significant amount of rainfall over 150 miles away from the west side of its center. In fact, it rained more with Isidore in Gonzales than it did with Lili, which was actually a hurricane.

Bear in mind, however, that none of us wish to see death and destruction. But we cannot nullify the desire within us once it has built up.


I think most of the wishes are for a minimal hurricane anyway.. I know there are exceptions.

The closest I got was when I was going to New Jersey and what was left of Isabel was heading through western PA at the same time, 40 mph winds. Well, there was Ike, gave us 55 mph winds but was extatropical with no rain.
Quoting Weather456:
But it's rather sad. Becuz over the past years, no matter what the forecast says, you can hear it people voices (cyber voices) that they want the storm to come near them. I don't understand what thrill they get out of it besides school closing but I would be blowcasting any storm away from where I live.
True statement that. We had plenty "prayer warriors" on their knees here in the Bahamas praying all those bad storms would not head our way. Things are already tough this year with the recession. We don't need the hurricane kind of destruction along with it.
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Quoting Vortex95:
funcasting- that being in a tropical cyclone will be "fun"

scarecasting- stormtop,cat, w/e.


I find that people who do this haven't been in a really bad hurricane(Hurrricane Andrew, Hugo, Charley)
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Quoting ackee:
can somebody please show another model link other than GFS


You can start here LINK

There are many other sites with model data inlcuding this one.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


lol lol

the term fish storm would become obsolete


I can imagine some kid in Iowa hoping for a category 5 hurricane to get out of school.
i love you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is nothing wrong with that

This.

Christ, it irritates me when people complain that some of us enjoy experiencing a tropical cyclone.

That enjoyment, however, isn't exactly inhumane as people seem to think. On the contrary, the desire is typically because a major weather event sparked our interest in weather, where we had previously been uninterested in meteorology prior to that phenomena.

I know for myself, my interest in weather started with Tropical Storm Isidore in 2002. I was living in Gonzales, Louisiana at the time, and despite being on Isidore's west side, and despite his maximum sustained winds only being at 65 mph, that was the most powerful tropical storm that I've been through to this day. And oddly enough, Isidore produced a significant amount of rainfall over 150 miles away from the west side of its center. In fact, it rained more with Isidore in Gonzales than it did with Lili, which was actually a hurricane.

Bear in mind, however, that none of us wish to see death and destruction. But we cannot nullify the desire within us once it has built up.
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664. ackee
can somebody please show another model link other than GFS
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Quoting futuremet:


There is nothing wrong with that; they are not the ones who control the steering currents.

Can you imagine if they could?


lol lol

the term fish storm would become obsolete
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
makeupcating
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my logic is two fold. first at 120 hours the GFS has this thing in the Caribbean. and secondly i dont want him to make plans around a non existent storm. the truth of the matter is when it develops the models will change based on the new data they have. data such as an LLC for them to track and base forcast off of.
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nutcasting
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Quoting ackee:
if that low does form we could be getting lots of rain here in jamaica Iam glad the last few loops had it moveing away from us


Yea, but not out of the woods yet. The latest satellite imagery show lots of showers down south that can potential expand north regardless of development.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
But it's rather sad. Becuz over the past years, no matter what the forecast says, you can hear it people voices (cyber voices) that they want the storm to come near them. I don't understand what thrill they get out of it besides school closing but I would be blowcasting any storm away from where I live.


There is nothing wrong with that; they are not the ones who control the steering currents.

Can you imagine if they could?
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653. ackee
if that low does form we could be getting lots of rain here in jamaica Iam glad the last few loops had it moveing away from us
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All hell will break lose 2mr

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting gator23:


westcasting
eastcasting
wishcasting
gulfcasting
fishcasting
downcasting
upcasting
eddycasting
forecasting
ghostcasting
islandcasting
rodcasting
broadcasting
futurecasting
the nhc is always wrongcasting
Talent Casting
Movie Casting


the NHC is always wrongcasting lol
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Quoting Weather456:
But it's rather sad. Becuz over the past years, no matter what the forecast says, you can hear it people voices (cyber voices) that they want the storm to come near them. I don't understand what thrill they get out of it besides school closing but I would be wishcasting any storm away from where I live.


you have a point there.. im with ya
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Quoting gator23:
enjoy your plans. I dont think anything will even form. I have taken crap for it today. be we are monitoring a storm that doesnt exist! see my previous post GHOST STORM WATCH 2009. and watch our fo GHOST STORM WARNINGS in your area


haha! love the ghost storm warnings.... I do think people are going a little crazy over nothing... once something forms then I will take note...

I'm off ya'll be good... got to get my beauty rest for work tomorrow...lol
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Quoting futuremet:


lol how many ___casters are there?


westcasting
eastcasting
wishcasting
gulfcasting
fishcasting
downcasting
upcasting
eddycasting
forecasting
ghostcasting
islandcasting
rodcasting
broadcasting
futurecasting
the nhc is always wrongcasting
Talent Casting
Movie Casting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
But it's rather sad. Becuz over the past years, no matter what the forecast says, you can hear it people voices (cyber voices) that they want the storm to come near them. I don't understand what thrill they get out of it besides school closing but I would be blowcasting any storm away from where I live.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting gator23:
enjoy your plans. I dont think anything will even form. I have taken crap for it today. be we are monitoring a storm that doesnt exist! see my previous post GHOST STORM WATCH 2009. and watch our fo GHOST STORM WARNINGS in your area


Do you have any logic behind your hypothesis whatsoever?
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
enjoy your plans. I dont think anything will even form. I have taken crap for it today. be we are monitoring a storm that doesnt exist! see my previous post GHOST STORM WATCH 2009. and watch our fo GHOST STORM WARNINGS in your area
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Quoting futuremet:


lol how many ___casters are there?


way to many...
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Quoting Vortex95:
eddycasting- (constantly saying that a Hurricane hitting a loop eddy will become a Cat 5 faster than you can say Wilma.)


lol how many ___casters are there?
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637. LOL!

or when you guess the temperature of a possible loop eddy and calculate the intensity of the storm based on your assumptions
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Im very glad it doesn't have a chance of coming west because I have Huge plans for Thurs-Sun... I know mother nature is no respecter of persons but I sure hope that she will not do anything crazy...
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Quoting gator23:


Its no coincidence most of the blog lives in the gulf coast. Remember Hurricane Hanna? When it formed near the Bahamas the west casters were already evacuating New Orleans.


yep..haha! este verdad... this is true
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Quoting ltcenter:



It would be funny to see nothing at all happening.


that would be outstanding!
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
lol... futuremet..
the westcasters will be out in full force... seems like the more west a system goes the more action goes on here.


Its no coincidence most of the blog lives in the gulf coast. Remember Hurricane Hanna? When it formed near the Bahamas the west casters were already evacuating New Orleans.
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Im interested to see if anything at all forms..
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lol... futuremet..
the westcasters will be out in full force... seems like the more west a system goes the more action goes on here.
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Ana at 120hr.
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The GFS' track has shifted substantially west compared to todays mean forecast track. This will enliven the blog tomorrow.
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just thought i wouldnt make you guys copy and paste the link..
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New term before bed... ghostcasting.
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.
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_120l.gif

still strong low 120 hours out.
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627. ackee
Quoting ltcenter:


Not that I know of, and I don't think this one will either, but it is a possibility, who knows until this little ghost develops..

Check out my site if you want.

www.cyclonezonecz.blogspot.com
thanks
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Thanks, Have a strog low so far in 96hr!
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623. antonio28 12:04 AM AST on June 06, 2009
Thanks.456

how long the gfs takes to finish the run?



average completion time:

00Z - 05Z (1 am)
06Z - 11Z - (7 am)
12Z - 17Z (1 pm)
18Z - 23Z (7 pm
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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