El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting SevereHurricane:


2005 was an exceptional year.
I still remember when Rita gave NOLA a good Scare.
Photobucket


I still vividly remember Rita, and how scared I was. Rita was initially forecast to come damn close to where I was (like, traveling between Baton Rouge and New Orleans like Betsy did, except Rita would be coming from the west, due to the approach of an upper-level trough) as a major hurricane.

I only got the weak side of Katrina, and Rita threatened to bring me conditions that were far worse.

Thankfully, Rita jogged 250 miles to the west, and all I got from her was rain and the occasional Tornado Warning.

I actually received around 6-8 inches of rain from Rita within a 24 hour period, and gusts came close to exceeding 60 mph at times. Rita was an impressive storm to be sure, given its weakened state at landfall, and how far the both of us were in relation to its center at the time of landfall.

I also remember that the thing that surprised me the most about Rita was that it flooded portions of New Orleans again, though that thankfully didn't take too long to get repaired, nor did it do much damage.

I felt really bad for NOLA in 2005.
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Quoting SevereHurricane:


I think people who use caps are annoying...



same here
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This is what we know peeps... a disturbance and a weak area of low pressure will be near Honduras-Nicaragua Sunday Night into Tuesday...this is the 72hr forecast and only the 72 hour forecast is the most legit. Up to 120hrs the disturbance or LOW is shown moving NE towards Cuba...but confidence is low on this... and after 120hrs....dont bother always.

Only stable thing we have seen is the persist distubed weather developing over the SW Carribean and moving towards Nic-Hond...When It Gets There... then we will see what the models want todo out 72hrs from then.
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Quoting futuremet:
715

It is amazing how some use caps to get attention.


I think people who use caps are annoying...
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The NOGAPS 00z shows some development before the sharpening of the upper level trough creates unfavorable conditions.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
715

It is amazing how some use caps to get attention.
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well good night
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yup me too
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I would like to see how consistent the models are through this weekend.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting KoritheMan:


What I find interesting about Cindy was that Dennis practically followed it, and New Orleans narrowly missed that one, definitely a dodged bullet, thankfully.

Then along came Katrina, and then Rita.

2005 was an interesting year for Louisiana, as not only did three hurricanes (two being major) strike the state, but the four storms that threatened, all followed each other.


2005 was an exceptional year.
I still remember when Rita gave NOLA a good Scare.
Photobucket
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The models never seem to have a good grasp on a system until after it is developed. I've learned that from being here for over 2 years.


yup will talk to my on my blog on sat ok



night all


oh wait i said that be for and cant pull a way from my lap top



Taz step away from the laptop
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If the GFS holds true it would not be the first time see Hurricane King here.
Link
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Quoting Tazmanian:
the mode runs will go back and forth back and forth so on and so on so on and so on



you nevere no what they can forcast next


oh nos they could be forcasting a big cat 5 for new york city and we may not even no about it


The models never seem to have a good grasp on a system until after it is developed. I've learned that from being here for over 2 years.
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Re. 694 / 695

Thanks, but I'm only saying what a lot of us are thinkin'. . . ;o)

One thing I've learned during my time on this blog is to be a bit more fatalistic about storm paths. That storm will go where it's going, no matter what we think. IMO 2008 was an excellent example of this. Look at how that ridge consistently steered system after system - 6? 7? in a row - over the Greater Antilles. Our study of the maps and models makes us understand better and earlier what happens, but we are still just as subject to the storm event as we ever were. So I don't get so caught up in the "what ifs" of it all.

The only positive aspect of landfalling storms is that they have the potential to give a wealth of data which can in turn be used to improve our understanding and thereby hopefully reduce the risk for coastal dwellers. I'm with u when I say lovely parabolas like last year's B storm - Bertha? - are more my cup of tea.
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the mode runs will go back and forth back and forth so on and so on so on and so on



you nevere no what they can forcast next


oh nos they could be forcasting a big cat 5 for new york city and we may not even no about it
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Quoting Makoto1:


I knew I liked when you posted.

By the way, my view of a good major hurricane is like at 25N, 45W, and stationary, so it's for fish and not people.


Something like this?



:P
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Quoting SevereHurricane:


Different story here in Metairie.
We certainly had Hurricane Force winds and boy it was loud too.We had around 3.5 inches of rain from Cindy.What was fun is how it surprised almost everyone.


What I find interesting about Cindy was that Dennis practically followed it, and New Orleans narrowly missed that one, definitely a dodged bullet, thankfully.

Then along came Katrina, and then Rita.

2005 was an interesting year for Louisiana, as not only did three hurricanes (two being major) strike the state, but the four storms that threatened, all followed each other.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


All of them were El Nino years.

Bob (1991):



Andrew (1992):



Emily (1993):




oh ok


well am off
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Quoting Drakoen:
Interest GFS 00z and it goes back to the original philosophy the GFS had for development except further west due to the lack of depth in the trough which is what I was looking for.


I'm just glad the GFS is making sense again.The 12Z GFS was a mess.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



why??


All of them were El Nino years.

Bob (1991):



Andrew (1992):



Emily (1993):

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Cindy was a dud in Gonzales. Barely any rain, and gusts never exceeded 30 mph. >_>


Different story here in Metairie.
We certainly had Hurricane Force winds and boy it was loud too.We had around 3.5 inches of rain from Cindy.What was fun is how it surprised almost everyone.
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Interest GFS 00z and it goes back to the original philosophy the GFS had for development except further west due to the lack of depth in the trough which is what I was looking for.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't forget 1991, 1992, and even 1993.



why??
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Quoting Tazmanian:
not if El Niño comes in too play if El Niño comes in too play it will most likely shut the season, down


Don't forget 1991, 1992, and even 1993.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm working on that, but no luck so far.


grrrr
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Quoting Tazmanian:
KoritheMan: you get your IM fixs so we can talk on IM


I'm working on that, but no luck so far.
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not if El Niño comes in too play if El Niño comes in too play it will most likely shut the season, down
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Quoting SevereHurricane:


Cindy was a blast.
We didn't even loose power.


Cindy was a dud in Gonzales. Barely any rain, and gusts never exceeded 30 mph. >_>
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I think most of the people with the fascination for storms aren't so much interested in "making" the storm come to them. The people acting that way, IMO, are just lacking in experience. They've never been through a devastating hurricane. So I agree with some of u guys on that.

The REAL hurricane junkies just want to know everything possible about any storm that will potentially blow away everything in its path as far as possible in advance of its arrival. We are fascinated and amazed - albeit horrified - by the damage caused by and the power of these storms. We are insatiably curious about their inner workings and what makes them tick.

We don't WANT them to come our way; we can live by watching what they do to others. OTOH, if they DO come our way, we are going to understand as much as we can about them, live as much of the experience as we can. That's why we'll watch the filming done by CycloneOz and others.


I knew I liked when you posted.

By the way, my view of a good major hurricane is like at 25N, 45W, and stationary, so it's for fish and not people.
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Quoting Weather456:
Tropical Wave along 55W becomes convectively active as it interacts with diffluent westerly winds. The wave remained relatively inactive as it traversed the tropical Atlantic but it's signature is becoming more defined as it nears the Caribbean. While development is unlikely due upper winds, this is a disturbing pattern we are seeing for the upcoming hurricane season.
I've been noticing that the wave train has picked up speed / frequency in the last week. I've also noticed how relatively dry they have been. If we end up with a MJO pulse in the area during the heart of the season, this trend u are describing could be potentially problematical.

I am also noticing that the ridging we have seen so far this year doesn't seem as strong and consistent as it was last year. This could add potential danger to the SE US coast and to The Bahamas and Florida. June developments should be quite interesting.
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poor El Niño it not geting march too talk about its all talk about mode runs
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KoritheMan: you get your IM fixs so we can talk on IM
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I think most of the people with the fascination for storms aren't so much interested in "making" the storm come to them. The people acting that way, IMO, are just lacking in experience. They've never been through a devastating hurricane. So I agree with some of u guys on that.

The REAL hurricane junkies just want to know everything possible about any storm that will potentially blow away everything in its path as far as possible in advance of its arrival. We are fascinated and amazed - albeit horrified - by the damage caused by and the power of these storms. We are insatiably curious about their inner workings and what makes them tick.

We don't WANT them to come our way; we can live by watching what they do to others. OTOH, if they DO come our way, we are going to understand as much as we can about them, live as much of the experience as we can. That's why we'll watch the filming done by CycloneOz and others.


Thank you, Baha. I knew that if anyone could express something so elegantly, it would be you.

It's why I respect you so much. :)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


What's your point? I never insinuated that I wanted to experience an Andrew or a Charley. But regardless of what anybody says, I think it is undeniable that a tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane is a fun event to go through.


Cindy was a blast.
We didn't even loose power.
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NIGHT ALL
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Quoting KoritheMan:
There is nothing wrong with that

This.

Christ, it irritates me when people complain that some of us enjoy experiencing a tropical cyclone.

That enjoyment, however, isn't exactly inhumane as people seem to think. On the contrary, the desire is typically because a major weather event sparked our interest in weather, where we had previously been uninterested in meteorology prior to that phenomena.

I know for myself, my interest in weather started with Tropical Storm Isidore in 2002. I was living in Gonzales, Louisiana at the time, and despite being on Isidore's west side, and despite his maximum sustained winds only being at 65 mph, that was the most powerful tropical storm that I've been through to this day. And oddly enough, Isidore produced a significant amount of rainfall over 150 miles away from the west side of its center. In fact, it rained more with Isidore in Gonzales than it did with Lili, which was actually a hurricane.

Bear in mind, however, that none of us wish to see death and destruction. But we cannot nullify the desire within us once it has built up.


Exactly correct. If you want to call it adrenaline junkie, fine. I have no desire for anyone to suffer, but some of my best memories are during and in the aftermath of storms.
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Regardless of the outcome you want is okay. However, becoming so enticed by that desired come as to let it be the dominant over logic is wrong.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


THAT'S BECAUSE THOSE PARTICULAR INDIVIDUALS HAVE NEVER LIVED THROUGH A MAJOR CANE, BECAUSE MARK MY FOLLOWING WORDS, IF THEY EVER, DID THERE'S A 99% PROBABILITY THAT THEY'LL WISHCAST A HURRICAN ETO HEAD TOWARDS. IT'S HUMAN NATURE, THAT'S HOW WE FUNCTION. I MEAN, TAKE ME FOR EXAMPLE, DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS LEADING UP TILL HURRICANE WILMA'S LANDFALL, i'LL BE FRANK WITH YOU, I WAS BOUNCING OFF THE WALLS IN EXCITEMENT BECAUSE I WAS GETTING READY TO LIVE THROUGH MY FIRST MAJOR CANE EVER, BUT AFTER WILMA, I SAD TO MYSELF, AND I QUOTE THIS ''NEVER AGAIN WILL CONSIDER STAYING PUT FOR ANOTEHR MAJOR HURRICAN EIN THE FUTURE''.


I love the CAPS...
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Quoting futuremet:
The GFS' track has shifted substantially west compared to todays mean forecast track. This will enliven the blog tomorrow.


JFV is going to flip... LOL
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I think most of the people with the fascination for storms aren't so much interested in "making" the storm come to them. The people acting that way, IMO, are just lacking in experience. They've never been through a devastating hurricane. So I agree with some of u guys on that.

The REAL hurricane junkies just want to know everything possible about any storm that will potentially blow away everything in its path as far as possible in advance of its arrival. We are fascinated and amazed - albeit horrified - by the damage caused by and the power of these storms. We are insatiably curious about their inner workings and what makes them tick.

We don't WANT them to come our way; we can live by watching what they do to others. OTOH, if they DO come our way, we are going to understand as much as we can about them, live as much of the experience as we can. That's why we'll watch the filming done by CycloneOz and others.
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Quoting gator23:


Hurricane Andrew at 11 years old. That is why I am here. my neighborhood was torn apart and my city in shambles. It makes me angry when people "want" storms. Or when they complain because they have no power for three days. If electricity is your only complaint, consider yourself lucky.


Well, given that I live inland (I'm in Prairieville now, which is only a couple miles from Gonzales, which is where I was for Isidore, the event that made me interested in weather), lack of electricity is all that I have to worry about, barring any tornadoes and fallen trees.

There are hazards, however, even being inland. I learned that with Gustav, when I was standing outside and a large tree limb nearly struck me in the back of the head.

But that doesn't mean that my interest in those storms is going to dissolve.

I can definitely understand where you are coming from, though, and I certainly have the same amount of respect for nature that you do. But with fear also comes excitement, at least to me.

I in no way wish for death and destruction on anybody, however.
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Quoting Vortex95:


see funcasting...


What's your point? I never insinuated that I wanted to experience an Andrew or a Charley. But regardless of what anybody says, I think it is undeniable that a tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane is a fun event to go through.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
This is one puzzling conundrum, ain't it, 456? Thoughts?


Nothing much, the 00Z model run is rather more reasonable than 12Z and 18Z but overdone.

From my blog:

There is still the uncertainty of development and track right now and a lot can change over the upcoming days as this could occur in the Eastern Pacific all together so the best we can do is monitor the situation for now and not be over concerned. What I can say is the models are forecasting favorable conditions for cyclogenesis, but whether or not this feature takes off is unknown.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Makoto1:


I think most of the wishes are for a minimal hurricane anyway.. I know there are exceptions.

The closest I got was when I was going to New Jersey and what was left of Isabel was heading through western PA at the same time, 40 mph winds. Well, there was Ike, gave us 55 mph winds but was extatropical with no rain.


Yeah, at most, I only want to go through a minimal Category 2, which is what Gustav was.

That was already powerful enough, and Gustav definitely taught me to respect nature.

I have enjoyment regarding tropical cyclones, to be sure, but there comes a point where I reach my limits.

Quite frankly, anyone who wishes for anything more than a minimal Category 2 is, to put it as nice as possible...an idiot.
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Quoting gator23:


Hurricane Andrew at 11 years old. That is why I am here. my neighborhood was torn apart and my city in shambles. It makes me angry when people "want" storms. Or when they complain because they have no power for three days. If electricity is your only complaint, consider yourself lucky.


He was somewhat quoting me

I posted this yesterday...



I don't like calling people wishcasters. Meteorologists are not robots, and are not 100 percent neutral for an outcome. Some of us want the storm to hit us, while others do not. Now you made find this inhumane and harsh for someone to want a storm to come to their location, but you have to understand that it is this enthusiasm that actually makes some of them becoming interested in meteorology. Storm chasers are quintessence of this because they are thrilled by these storms. Their passion for storm chasing actually benefits the scientific community, because it provides with them with valuable data.

Can this desire for a possible outcome be detrimental?

Yes, because if a meteorologist is too supportive of an outcome, the forecast will be biased. We need to make sure that we look at the facts as it is, and not try to go beyond it, or dismantling it it to fit our forecast.

Example of a wishcast statement

"It will hit Florida"__eddye


Such statement has nothing to back it up
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Quoting KoritheMan:
There is nothing wrong with that

This.

Christ, it irritates me when people complain that some of us enjoy experiencing a tropical cyclone.

That enjoyment, however, isn't exactly inhumane as people seem to think. On the contrary, the desire is typically because a major weather event sparked our interest in weather, where we had previously been uninterested in meteorology prior to that phenomena.

I know for myself, my interest in weather started with Tropical Storm Isidore in 2002. I was living in Gonzales, Louisiana at the time, and despite being on Isidore's west side, and despite his maximum sustained winds only being at 65 mph, that was the most powerful tropical storm that I've been through to this day. And oddly enough, Isidore produced a significant amount of rainfall over 150 miles away from the west side of its center. In fact, it rained more with Isidore in Gonzales than it did with Lili, which was actually a hurricane.

Bear in mind, however, that none of us wish to see death and destruction. But we cannot nullify the desire within us once it has built up.


Hurricane Andrew at 11 years old. That is why I am here. my neighborhood was torn apart and my city in shambles. It makes me angry when people "want" storms. Or when they complain because they have no power for three days. If electricity is your only complaint, consider yourself lucky.
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Be careful what you wish for because what you wish for just might come true.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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