El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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2075. sfla82
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
GFS is up to 84 hours now. Probably end up developing the blob near Haiti.


It is the GFS though...So no worries there.
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Quoting Acemmett90:
Things are Heating UP
yea, i see 3 areas of intrest, one is east of south Florida, another is northeast of the Antilles, and last but not least the one south of Jamaica.
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2072. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:
2058 Drak I was noticing something similar on water vapor imagery and 500 mb vort maps.


Yea the mid level circulation is great and all but there is still shear from the upper trough.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30179
2071. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
I'm going to keep an open mind but i still say development is not likely.


I agree. I don't think we'll see much for 5 days at least. Things may get interesting after that.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
Quoting sfla82:


Won't happen!


what makes you think that? just for curiosity because everyone here knows what you just said is irresponsible
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2058 Drak I was noticing something similar on water vapor imagery and 500 mb vort maps.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2068. Patrap
Crushing Shear abounds..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
GFS is up to 84 hours now. Probably end up developing the blob near Haiti.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
2065. Patrap
Im favoring the BOC IKE,shes a Lonely spot,never no Bloggers jaw-jacking her up.

Sneaky Lil corner for a slice of energy to coalesce in to a Lil Spin -up..Dolly Style.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
2064. Drakoen
I'm going to keep an open mind but i still say development is not likely.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30179
Current ENSO episodes are out for March-April-May

-0.1

A striking similiar rate of warming as 2006 and 2004.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2062. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah I'm very happy for him. I remember watching Sampras when I was like 8 and I got annoyed that he won all the time lol. Glad Federer could tie him up. Best player in the world.


I agree he is the best player in the world. Nadal has a ways to go to reach Federer dominance. Rolland-Garros basically proved all that Federer is made of.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30179
2061. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Dont do it Ike...I smell sumthing cooking,and it aint Chicken,LOL


I'm laughing as my wife walks in the room....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Tyvm sportguy!
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2059. sfla82
Quoting Drakoen:


Quite is an ambiguous word in describing hurricane season. What if 6 of those storms made landfall. It wouldn't exactly be considered quite.

Won't happen!
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2058. Drakoen
There's a pretty decent area of mid level turning still. While I appreciate and I highly value the dynamical computer forecast models. Sometimes these things can just pop. If the upper trough doesn't amplify enough it could easily give way to something.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30179
2057. Patrap
Dont do it Ike...I smell sumthing cooking,and it aint Chicken,LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
2056. IKE
Hmmm...do I bite? GFS 12Z at 72 hrs....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2055. Patrap
I like Ping-Pong..much mo challenging ,and you can play it with a Beer in one Hand,too.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
2054. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


Same here. Congrats to Federer. Favorite Player.


Yeah I'm very happy for him. I remember watching Sampras when I was like 8 and I got annoyed that he won all the time lol. Glad Federer could tie him up. Best player in the world.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
2053. Drakoen
Quoting cycloone:
This is going to be a very quite season.
My prediction:

11 named storms
5 Hurricanes
2 Major


Quite is an ambiguous word in describing hurricane season. What if 6 of those storms made landfall. It wouldn't exactly be considered quite.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30179
Quoting rainraingoaway:
Morning all. Hope everybody has a great weekend!

Can somebody tell me what an El Nino year (or I guess the start of one) would mean for Texas? Thanks.


See post 2041 456 has a nice map that shows what to expect.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5277
.
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2050. Patrap
A Large T-Storm Anvil from Orbit...

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
2049. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


7am lol.....was up at 6am watching French Open Tennis Final.


Same here. Congrats to Federer. Favorite Player.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30179
Which ENSO cycle explains this- Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting hurricane23:
Here's a bump as some were wondering the interaction of the temps at the 500 mb with the severity of the thunderstorms?

The colder the temperatures are aloft, the greater potential the air has to rise.This is what you call instability.Greater instability can lead to stronger and severe thunderstorms.

Adrian


Thanks! Good to know.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5277
Here's a bump as some were wondering the interaction of the temps at the 500 mb with the severity of the thunderstorms?

The colder the temperatures are aloft, the greater potential the air has to rise.This is what you call instability.Greater instability can lead to stronger and severe thunderstorms.

Adrian
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Morning all. Hope everybody has a great weekend!

Can somebody tell me what an El Nino year (or I guess the start of one) would mean for Texas? Thanks.
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2044. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:
Taz, I don't know a whole lot about how El Nino effects the Western United States most of what I know is concentrated in the tropics. But:

I can tell you that El Nino effects in California are weaker in Summer/Autumn that in Winter/Spring. So if El Nino is on the way, it might be strong peresence now in your parts that if it was January.



Glad to see I'm not the only one who retreats to that graphic whenever I need to know something about El Nino's affects on the world outside the tropics....lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
2043. Ossqss
Quoting Tazmanian:
i am lowering my name storms from 14 name storms to 5 name storm 2 hurricanes and 0 cat 3 storms or higher winds


Humm, here is what we have on the records :)

Tazmanian,15,8,4,1,6-05
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Quoting Twinkster:



El Nino will not disrupt the hurricane season as much as you are predicting Taz. Even though california is feeling the effects of el nino several other areas are not remember 2004 was an el nino year.

My prediction for the year:
12-14 named storms
4-6 hurricanes
1-3 major hurricanes

I do not like the hurricane forecasts that don't give a range of numbers because hurricanes are very unpredictable and to give 1 number for each category in my opinion is irresponsible that is why i find NOAA forecast the most important compared to CSU and TSR


Imagine that...we both agree on how many storms we'll see this season.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Taz, I don't know a whole lot about how El Nino effects the Western United States most of what I know about El Nino is concentrated in the tropics. But:

I can tell you that El Nino effects in California are weaker in Summer/Autumn that in Winter/Spring. So if El Nino is on the way, it might be strong peresence now in your parts that if it was January.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2040. Patrap
And there is no such thing as a "slow collapse" lol.

Guess you never been to some NOLA Clubs in the French Quarter late then?..

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
2039. Patrap
Friday in Volusia County you can Blog Live from the already IMPACTED area of the State instead of here.
Lets see a big turnout for yer neighbors whom need help.

You'll benefit ,and so will they.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
2001- Oops. lol....I was probably thinking of Hawaii

I see we are discussing numbers for the season. Here are the numbers I drew out of a hat, and later confirmed by a magic 8 ball:

Named Storms- 13
Hurricanes- 5
Major Hurricanes- 2
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
2036. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm I don't think it can do that? A nice slow collapse would be nice.


Well the way I understand it eruptions like this can grow several domes in a row that successively collapse...but eventually a permanent one grows and seals everything off and the magma retreats for another decade.

And there is no such thing as a "slow collapse" lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
2035. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
LOL did i say it was a bust???



if it this slow in july and augs then we wont see any name stroms at alll


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Levi32:


Lucky you.....I hope the nasty thing grows over into a permanent dome and doesn't erupt again.


Umm I don't think it can do that? A nice slow collapse would be nice.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Even if the tropical mess doesn't form it may still push it mositure over florida which maybe just as bad. We have gone from not a enough to to much in 3 weeks.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




yes El Niño effects even CA have been feeling some effects from El Niño right now



El Nino will not disrupt the hurricane season as much as you are predicting Taz. Even though california is feeling the effects of el nino several other areas are not remember 2004 was an el nino year.

My prediction for the year:
12-14 named storms
4-6 hurricanes
1-3 major hurricanes

I do not like the hurricane forecasts that don't give a range of numbers because hurricanes are very unpredictable and to give 1 number for each category in my opinion is irresponsible that is why i find NOAA forecast the most important compared to CSU and TSR
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Stick with your numbers Taz,...you seems to always know the right trends thru time Buddy.




ok
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Quoting Levi32:


5 storms is a bust.....LOL



oh
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2029. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:


Lava domes worry me..... St Helens comes to mind, I was in Portland at the time.


Lucky you.....I hope the nasty thing grows over into a permanent dome and doesn't erupt again.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
2028. Patrap
Stick with your numbers Taz,...you seems to always know the right trends thru time Buddy.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
(zoomiami) the colder the temperatures are aloft, the greater potential the air has to rise. This is what we call instability.Greater instability can lead to stronger and severe thunderstorms.

Hope that helps. Adrian
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weather456 has CA been feeling some El Niño effects? has of late???
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2025. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:
LOL did i say it was a bust???



if it this slow in july and augs then we wont see any name stroms at alll


5 storms is a bust.....LOL
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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