El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TampaSpin:


I just looked at many models...Not saying a Low won't develop but, i have little faith from the models that we have anything to worry about at this point. Heck Low's develop all the time......


Based on? C'mon people, back up you gut instincts with facts.
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Weather 456 is 100% correct right that the models are only 20-50% correct.
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Quoting Weather456:
Tampaspin, I don't know where are you getting that from but most of the models inlcuding NHC guidance is forecasting a low pressure to develop off the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras. Whether it develops or not is uncertain. Rather it is the track they don't have a good handle on.

Futuremet,

Could be a strong tropical wave at this point since it's so far out.


I just looked at many models...Not saying a Low won't develop but, i have little faith from the models that we have anything to worry about at this point. Heck Low's develop all the time......
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Hurricane King moved NE from Honduras in 1950
Link

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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
ITCZ is almost in the Southern Hemisphere, yet those tropical waves are still finding away to get in the Caribbean. Link


lol, yea I notice, but do you know tropical waves don't develop in the ITCZ? They form in the AEJ which is at 10-12N. They will be there regardless of the ITCZ.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting futuremet:
NOGAPS GFS ECMWF DGEX and NAM are the only ones I know of that is forecasting something.


The NGP is not showing anything.....The NAM has never been very good for forecasting developing Tropical Systems...It does a decent job after something develops.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
ITCZ is almost in the Southern Hemisphere, yet those tropical waves are still finding away to get in the Caribbean. Link


The extra thrusts from the MJO may be responsible.
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Tampaspin, I don't know where are you getting that from but most of the models inlcuding NHC guidance is forecasting a low pressure to develop off the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras. Whether it develops or not is uncertain. Rather it is the track they don't have a good handle on.

Futuremet,

Could be a strong tropical wave at this point since it's so far out.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
ITCZ is almost in the Southern Hemisphere, yet those tropical waves are still finding away to get in the Caribbean. Link
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GFS CMC= GMC


That is what the GFS has become this year. It has been too pugnacious.
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Morning all

Well if anything does form in the Carib, I can tell from the 00z and 06z GFS that it will end up somewhere in the stoopid circle...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
NOGAPS GFS ECMWF DGEX and NAM are the only ones I know of that is forecasting something.
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Quoting futuremet:
Did any guys notice the Cape verde wave the GFS develops within 16 days near 25W?

Link

Hopefully this won't be a harbinger for busy cape verde season.


Too early for anything out there!
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Did any guys notice the Cape verde wave the GFS develops within 16 days near 25W?

Link

Hopefully this won't be a harbinger for busy cape verde season.
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Morning everyone......Looks like the Models can't get a handle whether anything will develop. Outside of the GFS nothing else looks very good IMO. I'm not sure the GFS isn't maybe the CMC of last year......LOL...Heck the CMC is not forecasting anything to develop...LOL
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Quoting leftovers:
looks like things are coming together. it would be a good time to use anti hurricane measures in the sw carib. foam whatever it takes. if we can keep it unorganized the system might move harmlessly into the pacific.


??? huh?
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Quoting StormW:


Negative NAO.


Good morning StormW. This means the negative NAO is starting to kick in earlier than the September forecast?
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807. IKE
I see the wave approaching the eastern Caribbean islands.
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looks like things are coming together. it would be a good time to use anti hurricane measures in the sw carib. foam whatever it takes. if we can keep it unorganized the system might move harmlessly into the pacific.
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See, the Key West one is English too! lol

Morning StormW
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Oh god its stormtop.
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Krasnozavodsk - about 50 km away from Moscow
Russian Federation (56.45 N, 38.22 E)
03-06-2009 (Wednesday) 18:15 UTC (+/- 15 min.)

Tornado F3

Real storm chasing!!!





Link




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Things should start getting interesting by tomorrow when the current developing low in Panama lifts NNW to NW. Currently there's a pretty decent vorticity signature from 850MB to 500MB with moderate low level convergence in the range of 15 to 20 with like numbers for the upper level divergence.
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Morning Storm...
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Morning StormW
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Quoting zoomiami:
good morning Ike, Aussie

Ike - where is the long term extended forecast from? I was looking for a similar discussion for Miami, but didn't find it.

Thanks

Good evening zoomiami
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796. IKE
From the extended Key West discussion...

"EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MORE TYPICAL WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE IS PROGGED BY ALL THE LARGE SCALE MODELS TO BE IN A
MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION FROM NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A VERY DEEP LIGHT TO GENTLE
EASTERLY FLOW IS INDICATED BY THE 00Z GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WHICH CONTINUE TO INDICATE PWAT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH PWAT FALLING TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THAT REASON...STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE TO BE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE
NORMAL OR AT 40 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCH DRIER AIR FINALLY ADVECTS
IN ACROSS THE KEYS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. HAVE FINALLY LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO LOW CHANCE
CRITERIA...WHICH IS STILL JUST A HAIR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. ALSO OF NOTE AND BY THE END OF THE WEEK...OR ON THUR AND FRIDAY
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SOME KIND OF
LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CARIBBEAN AND GETS PULLED NORTHWARD
BUT AS EXPECTED...THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONSISTENCY IN ANY OF THESE
DETAILS."
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Thanks - didn't think that was exactly it. Yours reads english, ours reads professionl gobbledy gook!
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794. IKE
Miami,FL discussion....


Link

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009/

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT WATERS THIS MORNING. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND
IS MOVING FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FORECASTING THE
TROUGH TRANSITIONING BY TONIGHT TO A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR TODAY...ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION. THE
00Z SOUNDING INDICATED THE 500 MB TEMP NEAR -9 CELSIUS...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATING IT COULD DROP TO ABOUT -10 CELSIUS TODAY.
IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND AT THE
LOWER LEVELS MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL
THESE FACTORS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ONE INTERESTING FEATURE FROM THE GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR MAY WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS PANS OUT THEN THE
HAIL POTENTIAL WOULD BE ENHANCED. BUT WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS FEATURE IS NOT CERTAIN AS THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
START TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE
AFFECTED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK.

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good morning Ike, Aussie

Ike - where is the long term extended forecast from? I was looking for a similar discussion for Miami, but didn't find it.

Thanks
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792. IKE
That's a healthy looking low about to emerge off of the east coast.
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Quoting IKE:


Me too. A lot of it I don't know.

My wife use to live in southern Australia. Her EX was stationed there in the Air Force back in the 70's.

What time is it there now?

10pm Saturday night
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Going back historically, the next largest increase that you see (similar to what happened after Fay) is after the hurricane that hit Okeechobee that killed many people.

Its interesting the many ways there are to track the weather trends, the Okeechobee lake levels are a living history of some of the storms that have hit Florida.
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789. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:

the more time i spend on here reading and looking at graphs and charts the more i learn


Me too. A lot of it I don't know.

My wife use to live in southern Australia. Her EX was stationed there in the Air Force back in the 70's.

What time is it there now?
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Going to try to post this right. Lake Okeechobee has gone from 10.36 approx two weeks ago to 11.52 today. This graph shows the lowest point ever recorded, at 9.30?, and then what happened after Fay.

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Quoting IKE:


Thanks, but I'm no expert.

There are more knowledgeable folks on here this year then I've ever seen.






the more time i spend on here reading and looking at graphs and charts the more i learn
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Morning...
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785. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:
ike
you are one of the few people who practice
oh how do i say it?...
UNBIASED forecasting

ifind your take on things helpful


Thanks, but I'm no expert.

There are more knowledgeable folks on here this year then I've ever seen.



Quoting Weather456:
The subequatorial ridge normally lies above the ITCZ due the heat and outflow exhaust so it is almost certain that of the ITCZ shifts north, the subequatorial ridge will follow. The subequatorial ridge lies to the south of the subtropical jet stream and it's northward movement signal the movement of the jet.


I see the low shear off of the southern coast/in the east-PAC.
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The subequatorial ridge normally lies above the ITCZ due the heat and outflow exhaust so it is almost certain that if the ITCZ shifts north, the subequatorial ridge will follow. The subequatorial ridge lies to the south of the subtropical jet stream and it's northward movement would signal the movement of the jet.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
ike
you are one of the few people who practice
oh how do i say it?...
UNBIASED forecasting

ifind your take on things helpful
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782. IKE
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781. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:
OHHHH ANOTHER IMPORTANT TERM

ridgecasting


Yo bud:)

***ikester***
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OHHHH ANOTHER IMPORTANT TERM

ridgecasting
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779. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Tropical Weather Discussion East Pacific

Global models slowly lift the itcz nwd into the caribbean over the weekend...and develop a broad and elongated cyclonic circulation from the w coast of costa rica ne into the sw caribbean...and slowly drift this feature nwd through wed. This would represent a very wet pattern for the region if this evolves as forecast...possibly more significant on the caribbean side.


I agree with their thinking...too much rain before long.
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778. IKE
Looks like the ridge to the north of the system is holding firm all week once this trough moves out, at least through next weekend.

I don't see anything that would steer it north to the northern GOM for at least a week.

It may do what the GFS is saying in the short-term...mull around in the NW Caribbean.
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Tropical Update
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Tropical Weather Discussion East Pacific

Global models slowly lift the itcz nwd into the caribbean over the weekend...and develop a broad and elongated cyclonic circulation from the w coast of costa rica ne into the sw caribbean...and slowly drift this feature nwd through wed. This would represent a very wet pattern for the region if this evolves as forecast...possibly more significant on the caribbean side.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11305
775. IKE
Mobile,AL. extended....

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY...WITH A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BRIDGING WESTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE
DEPTH INCREASES JUST ENOUGH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF PASSING WEAK
MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES
COULD PROVIDE BETTER FOCUS. OVERALL, THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS
CHANGED LITTLE ON THIS PACKAGE WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. OF
INTEREST THIS MORNING...THE 00Z GFS STILL ADVERTISES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND FAR SOUTHERN GULF NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS A CLEAR OUTLIER ON THIS SCENARIO WITH OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. IT IS TOO
EARLY AND CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO HANG OUR HAT ON
THIS.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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