El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Cotillion:
It's already 6th June and no storm!

..Has anyone randomly combusted yet with the wait?




If you mean in the Atlantic, that is normal.

If you mean Eastern Pacific, somewhat quiet.

I don't think anyone really put much though into it but NOAA predicted a below normal to near average Pacific Hurricane Season, which is rather contradicting the El Nino forecast but the cited that climatogically when you have neutral transitioning conditions it tends to reduce activity in the EPAC.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
874. IKE
Quoting vortfix:
From this morning's TPC marine discussion:


UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT...PSN AND STRENGTH...OF A LOW
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR THE NICARAGUAN AND
HONDURAN COASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
PREVIOUS TREND OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
THROUGH MON THEN WILL DEPICT LOW PRES NEAR 15N84W 1010 MB MON
NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS IN THE 20 RANGE AND MAX SEAS OF 8 FT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.




Really not much else to say until the first of the week.



Looks like they think a low forms...right near the coast...this could be a flooding problem.

I'll go with an invest at some time....crow me.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting CybrTeddy:


We've already had our first storm. TD-1.


But it didn't have the all important *name*....!

I hope some will be able to survive if it ends up being in like, July :)
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Weather456 you got mail.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Orca I would love to see your facts with the postion you are taking on the models that you claim....


StormW, Weather456, NHC,

What position that I claimed? I claimed you cannot disregard models... or the opinions of people who actually know what they are talking about... you know... people who actually do this for a living?

I give up.. you win :)
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a nice little invest would certainly clean up the blog...
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Quoting StormW:


Negative NAO.


Cotillion approves of negative NAO. We're sick of cooler summers.
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Just to let everyone know Weather456 is now a featured blogger for me along with StormW. Those two will make a great team and great insight for all....
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I randomly combusted about 20 years ago...
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Quoting Cotillion:
It's already 6th June and no storm!

..Has anyone randomly combusted yet with the wait?




We've already had our first storm. TD-1.
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864. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:
It's already 6th June and no storm!

..Has anyone randomly combusted yet with the wait?




I agree a healthy invest in the Atlantic would be nice. I guess I'm wishcasting:)
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
It appears to be one broad area of low pressure with multiple cyclonic flow and disorganize showers, the strongest over Panama per 850 mb maps.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
It's already 6th June and no storm!

..Has anyone randomly combusted yet with the wait?


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861. IKE
I don't think it's going to move NE beyond a week if it does. It should get forced back some by building high pressure once the trough moves out.


I notice a spin coming off Panama
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
stormw...Thank you for that...one picture is worth a thousand words...
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Greetings fellow weather watchers...
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Quoting Ossqss:
Mornin, can anyone tell me how the models are impacted by the movement of the La to N to El?

Do they actually have code to address the changes? Just curious, thanks

Good question.... i had thought the same
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856. IKE
I think it's almost a certainty low pressure is going to develop in the western Caribbean. May just be a rainmaker. It could be more.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Mornin, can anyone tell me how the models are impacted by the movement of the La to N to El?

Do they actually have code to address the changes or I should say trending? Just curious, thanks
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8192
Quoting gator23:
Hurricane King moved NE from Honduras in 1950
Link



So did Hurricane Paloma last year.
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Orca I would love to see your facts with the postion you are taking on the models that you claim....
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Its ok, I surrender.. its my own fault.. I should have known better.

Apologize and Shake hands
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AOI #1

AOI #2
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Quoting AussieStorm:

now now kiddies.... the playground is big enough for us all


My bad Aussie......your right.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

now now kiddies.... the playground is big enough for us all


Its ok, I surrender.. its my own fault.. I should have known better.
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Current Weather Obs from Parramatta, Sydney, Australia at 23:10 EST

Temperature: 11.4°C rising
Dew point: 7.1°C rising
Relative humidity: 75%
Feels like: 11.4°C
Calm: steady
Wind gusts: 0km/h
Fire danger: 1.4 Low
Rainfall: since 9am/last hr 0.0mm / -
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847. ackee
I just think until something does develop this will continue to be a GFS ana
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Your kidding right....Outside of the GFS, Show me which Major MOdel is showing much of any development....NOw show us your position!...WOW unreal!

now now kiddies.... the playground is big enough for us all
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Quoting Weather456:


lol What a coincidence, I'll be watching it too. Kinda sad the West Indies lost the match this week. But I'm an Australian fan. You guys can play cricket.

we can play but we haven't started well. 2 wickets down and only 3 runs
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Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFL, I know Storm, I actually agree with you.. and Weather456. I have no idea where TS is coming from with his reasoning. The models are what models are "Models". Its a model run of the present data inputted.. the GIGO effect is always a danger.

That being said, to arbitrarily ignore numerous models just to try and validate your point is not sound reasoning.


Your kidding right....Outside of the GFS, Show me which Major MOdel is showing much of any development....NOw show us your position!...WOW unreal!
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Morning StormW
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StormW you have mail
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting StormW:


Guy's...remember...the atmosphere keeps constantly changing...remeber, a lot of this stuff the models show come from upper air soundings, which only occur every 12 hours. So, we have about 1 hour of of obs and info. Until they launch another balloon, what's going on the other 11 hours?


ROFL, I know Storm, I actually agree with you.. and Weather456. I have no idea where TS is coming from with his reasoning. The models are what models are "Models". Its a model run of the present data inputted.. the GIGO effect is always a danger.

That being said, to arbitrarily ignore numerous models just to try and validate your point is not sound reasoning.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
I will be busy for the next few hours. will be watching Australia beat West Indies in the ICC Cricket 20/20 world cup.... please be kind and non demeaning while i am gone.
AussieStorm


lol What a coincidence, I'll be watching it too. Kinda sad the West Indies lost the match this week. But I'm an Australian fan. You guys can play cricket.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I will be busy for the next few hours. will be watching Australia beat West Indies in the ICC Cricket 20/20 world cup.... please be kind and non demeaning while i am gone.
AussieStorm
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Quoting vortfix:
Barely 9 am on the east coast.
I see this blog will be a free for all this weekend.


Looks like it....if you not a wishcaster looks like your an outcaster.......LOL
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I just got this off your shared Blog with StormW:

Computer models do not indicate anything major during the next 96 hours, however, the GFS and NOGAPS do indicate around the 10th, a developing surface low in the western/SW Caribbean. The remainder of the models indicate lowering of pressures in that area. The possibility of this does exist, as the GFS indicates a nice trof split occuring, in which a piece of energy, and possibly a cutoff low could break away and work it's way to the area, which could tap some energy from the area currenlty located near Panama and extreme EPAC

Which statement is right?


StormW posted that which if perfectly fine. Thats his opinion from Friday at 9:30am..

Orca what is your point AGAIN! I'm not sure what your problem is your trying to ALWAYS bring to the table...LMAO Again at YOU!
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


Based on? C'mon people, back up you gut instincts with facts.


What facts would you like...The models are very inconsistent with this ! Thats a fact!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I just looked at many models...Not saying a Low won't develop but, i have little faith from the models that we have anything to worry about at this point. Heck Low's develop all the time......


I just got this off your shared Blog with StormW:

Computer models do not indicate anything major during the next 96 hours, however, the GFS and NOGAPS do indicate around the 10th, a developing surface low in the western/SW Caribbean. The remainder of the models indicate lowering of pressures in that area. The possibility of this does exist, as the GFS indicates a nice trof split occuring, in which a piece of energy, and possibly a cutoff low could break away and work it's way to the area, which could tap some energy from the area currenlty located near Panama and extreme EPAC

Which statement is right?
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I just looked at many models...Not saying a Low won't develop but, i have little faith from the models that we have anything to worry about at this point. Heck Low's develop all the time......


true, ok

Lows develop all the time but are conditions favorable for this one?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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