El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Dead?..no action?

Id say the 1500 Homes flooded in Volusia County Fla,may Beg to differ with that statement poster.

I'd stay away from the Bowls of Ignorance for Breakfast too.

Try a Banana instead..brain food.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Since this tropical season is going to be dead with no action, do you guys think El Nino last until next tropical season???
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973. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Hmm I see the low moving to the northwest and is it possible it could move into Nicaragua and not
develop at all?


I would think it should turn a little NW with that low/trough to it's NNW.
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972. 7544
so far the gfs has this low going all over the place what will new run show in a hour from now
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Atlantic Tropical Basin WV Loop,Wide view
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Hmm I see the low moving to the northwest and is it possible it could move into Nicaragua and not
develop at all?
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969. IKE
Jacksonville,FL. long-term discussion....

LONG TERM...TUE-FRI.
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PART OF FL
PENINSULA WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING FAIRLY DRY. WILL ADVERTISE POPS
AT 20-30% FOR NOW FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS
DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZES EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO WITH MAXES IN LOWER 90S COMMON BY MON AND TUE.

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967. ackee
Quoting IKE:


I think that is undetermined. I can't see it going NE and out-to-sea if/when high pressure builds in.
thanks
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966. IKE
Pinhole Eye~zoom-in
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Hurricane Ivan was more intense than Andrew and it occurred in an El Nino year but the conditions lag behind during that year.
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Anyone ID the future of the low spinning in Ga?



Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
tampa bound?
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National World War II Museum to honor D-Day with events
Published: Thursday, June 4, 2009 at 6:01 a.m.
Last Modified: Thursday, June 4, 2009 at 11:28 p.m.

HOUMA – The National World War II Museum is scheduled to honor the 65th anniversary of the D-Day invasion at Normandy with commemorative events Saturday and Sunday.

This weekend’s events take place at the museum on Andrew Higgins Drive between Camp and Magazine streets in New Orleans.

“A Gathering of the Greatest Generation,” the highlight of the weekend, is set for 2 p.m. Saturday.

The event includes a special “roll-call” ceremony in which veterans from each of the 50 states will stand together to be honored by the Museum and as a tribute to those who are no longer with us.

Other free activities, sponsored by Peoples Health, include the following: veteran panel discussions, the American Belles singing patriotic and WWII-era music, a Saturday ceremony commemorating the 65th anniversary of D-Day Normandy and the 9th anniversary of the National World War II Museum and the Museum’s Living History Corps joined by re-enactors throughout the Gulf South region, a military briefing of D-Day and D-Day +1 and WWII blank-fire weapons demonstrations.

Visitors can also enjoy Higgins boat-building, airborne activities, and parachute-making as well as displays of the machines that contributed to an Allied victory, including the Sherman tank and jeeps.

For information, call the National World War II Museum at 504-527-6012.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
05 was a freakish year based on a neutral year, High SST's, and a strong Bermuda High
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
Thanks. :)
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Seastep,

yeah next time.

but the image is 12Z NAM +84 hrs
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958. IKE
Quoting ackee:
if the low does form are we looking at a GOM system or will it move NE out to sea ?


I think that is undetermined. I can't see it going NE and out-to-sea if/when high pressure builds in.
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CURIOUSWEATHERGRL,

Should of clarified:

I didn't know what you meant by strongest hurricane, so I stated Hurricane Wilma of 2005 as being the all time most intense Atlantic hurricane.

And then I stated if you meant in an El Nino year - Hurricane Andrew of 1992.

And 2005 was a nuetral year (no La Nina or El Nino)
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956. ackee
if the low does form are we looking at a GOM system or will it move NE out to sea ?
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955. IKE
Buoy 42057...western Caribbean....Link

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 4.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.1 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.93 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.04 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.6 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.2 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 89.2 °F
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PAT's blog of the day is featuring the D-Day invasion and how 3 meteorological forcast made that day a victory
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Impact wise,Rita and Katrina,..which is the overall bottom Line,..Landfall is the Impactor..

not a Atlantic Low Pressure reading.

Were in the people Business,not record Business.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Quoting Weather456:


Hurricane Wilma of 2005 was the most intense.

2006, 2004, 2002, 1997, 1991-1994, 1987, 1982


wasn't 2005 an EL NINA pattern?
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Quoting Weather456:
12Z NAM



456, would greatly appreciate if you post with the time/date data on these since it's not on the frame.

Takes time to look that up to get the context of the post... is it 72hrs, etc. ;)

TIA.
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Quoting IKE:


I've already said yes....if I'm wrong I get crow.


Ditto Ike! This thing just has a whole lot going for it right now, which will make TC formation almost a certainty. :)
Quoting CURIOUSWEATHERGRL:
What was the strongest hurricane, and in which year, was there during an "EL NINO" pattern?


Hurricane Wilma of 2005 was the most intense.

El Nino years - 2006, 2004, 2002, 1997, 1991-1994, 1987, 1982

Othwerwise

Andrew 1992
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948. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:

but will it develop


I've already said yes....if I'm wrong I get crow.
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Quoting CURIOUSWEATHERGRL:
What was the strongest hurricane, and in which year, was there during an "EL NINO" pattern?


Andrew.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting IKE:


Looks like an invest coming....

but will it develop
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What was the strongest hurricane, and in which year, was there during an "EL NINO" pattern?
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I notice the area is forecast to move over Central America which was indicated by the models so we might not see development until later next week. But the models did verified thus far with the development of a low pressure in the SW Caribbean which was forecasted by the models since Monday/Tuesday.
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A very sad day indeed. 65 years ago today, D-Day.
Anyone seen Pat? I would like to hear his thoughts on this.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
12Z NAM

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940. IKE
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
12Z NAM is out- Link


Looks like an invest coming....
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So it begins.......the plot thickens!
the man, the MYTH, the legend...
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12Z NAM is out- Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Good morning all!!!
W456,

Are you modest or forgetful

863. Weather456 13:46 AM GMT on June 06, 2009
It appears to be one broad area of low pressure with multiple cyclonic flow and disorganize showers, the strongest over Panama per 850 mb maps
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934. IKE
Quoting weatherblog:
I just hate when a storm is a tropical storm and it's not named by the NHC for whatever reason. Who cares if it will dissipate soon? If it's a storm, it's a storm and it deserves to be named.

Plus, it's getting kind of repititive looking at the name Ana.


LOL...that is true.
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Well here's your steering flow:

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932. IKE
Quoting vortfix:
That is really a pretty bold statement from the TPC about this.
They mentioned the day and some coordinates...that is rare for them to step out that hard.


I agree.
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Looks like the blog conditions are a little hostile this morning with some unfavorable conditions... hopefully today the mood will relax and allow positive thinking to develop
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So the lastest surface map confirms what CCH, leftovers and Ike was seeing.
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Quoting Seastep:


Look again.


okay I see it now. Looks like we got a surface low.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30694
Seastep, your correct. Just needed refreshing.
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When I hit F5 it showed the latest surface map.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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