El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Drakoen:
Stormchaser2007, the CAPE looks to range from 1000-2000 j/kg, a moisture 700mb-500mb column, a decent boundary layer moisture convergence. Once the CAP breaks with the surface heating things should start firing up.


Yeah we just need that CAP to break then with the sufficent surface heating we should see some strong cells with the potential for decent size hail and gusty winds.

Heres the RUC at 4 hours:

Cape:


Lifted Index:
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Quoting Drakoen:
I just realized Nextsat came out with an African satellite view. Gotta Love Nextsat. Too bad we aren't foreseeing much of an active Cape Verde season.

Do u have a link?
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1023. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:


What is the lighter colored dip in the SE GOM?


I'm not sure what you are talking about...
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1022. Levi32
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit from noon eastern time
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
It seems like everything is playing out. Notice how shear increases over the Greater Antilles and decreases in the SW Caribbean. This could only imply that with the movement of the low pressure north, the overhead subequatorial ridge is lifting north and the subtropical jet (which is located on the north flank of the subequatorial ridge) is also lifting north. Though wind shear is the most important factor here along with the interaction with CA and it appears the wind shear is not decreasing at the rate I would look for healthy cyclogenesis but nevertheless, it's decreasing.

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1020. Drakoen
I just realized Nextsat came out with an African satellite view. Gotta Love Nextsat. Too bad we aren't foreseeing much of an active Cape Verde season.
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1019. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
Nice catch Ike


What is the lighter colored dip in the SE GOM?
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1018. Drakoen
Nice catch Ike
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Quoting Twinkster:



so far there is not much of a difference i have no idea what u are looking at


I was talking about 84 and 90 hours out. There is no low at 90 hours. Although one develops near 96.
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After just having a model for days, it is nice to finally have some convection in that area.
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1015. IKE
Looks like the trough is lifting out at 114 hours on the GFS run...

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Quoting Twinkster:



so far there is not much of a difference i have no idea what u are looking at



also i wouldn't look at it strength wise anyways a model like the GFS focuses mostly on cyclogenesis and path not strength and even this far out those are questionable
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1013. ackee
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Bookmark this

Bookmark this
thanks seem like the gfs may be backing off for now
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
So far the GFS seems somewhat weaker this run.



so far there is not much of a difference i have no idea what u are looking at
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1011. Drakoen
Stormchaser2007, the CAPE looks to range from 1000-2000 j/kg, a moisture 700mb-500mb column, a decent boundary layer moisture convergence. Once the CAP breaks with the surface heating things should start firing up.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
Here is the Weather Discussion from the Belize MET office:

THE GFS IS SHOWING THAT THE SURFACE / LOW LEVEL TROF WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST DURING TODAY, TO BE WEST OF BELIZE BY TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS PUTS BELIZE ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE. AT HIGH LEVELS, THE UPPER TROF WILL SLIGHTLY TO BE JUST EAST OF YUCATAN AND BELIZE BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA WHILE BECOMING SHARPER / NARROWER THROUGH TOMORROW. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW OVER S'RN NICARAGUA / E'RN HONDURAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY, THE WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNSTABLE.
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1009. 7544
dr lyons metion the blob we are looking at and says it will go ne hmmm
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Quoting ackee:
can somebody show a link to the GFS run

Link

Bookmark this
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1006. ackee
can somebody show a link to the GFS run
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the intereaction with belize and honduras could depend on if the COC moves further west under heavier convection.. with the NW path that it will probably take it could be close...
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So far the GFS seems somewhat weaker this run.
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i am busy eating my words... Australia is getting flogged by West Indies.

At least Australia will qualify for the 2010 Soccer World Cup in about 90mins. That will make me smile.


BTW.... is Florida and the Carolina's more at risk this year from a major cane due to El Nino and it's steering currents, or more the GOM states?
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Quoting IKE:


I would think it should turn a little NW with that low/trough to it's NNW.


Even so, it looks like it'll be a close one
with central america whether it landfalls or not.
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1000. IKE
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Could we have an invest in the next 24 hours? Probably


I would say yes.
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Could we have an invest in the next 24 hours? Probably


Who knows it looks like it might happen.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Could we have an invest in the next 24 hours? Probably
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0958
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 AM CDT SAT JUN 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL PEN

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 061445Z - 061615Z

STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE
VICINITY OF THE EAST COAST. SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE
INCREASED...WITH A SLIGHT RISK ADDED FOR AREA IN THE FORTHCOMING
1630Z OUTLOOK.

RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH...NOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY...AS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
WARMS WITH SURFACE HEATING. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
18-21Z TIME FRAME. AS 10-20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW MIXES TO THE SURFACE...IT WOULD SEEM HIGHEST STORM
PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ACROSS EASTERN INTERIOR AND COASTAL AREAS.
MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.


..KERR.. 06/06/2009


ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 28628159 29238149 29778123 29328088 28448043 27358003
26757988 25747996 25298017 25268101 25888119 26198160
26998214 27578242 28108194 286
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Does anyone know offhand whether Florida--especially South Florida--is more or less prone to land falling hurricanes in El Nino years? Or does is simply not make much of a difference? All I know is most of the strong hurricanes to strike the region since at least '92 have come in El Nino or neutral years.
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Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
2008 was wild but was easy to forecast



From My 2008 Hurricane Season Forecast Verififcation

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993. code1
Quoting MrstormX:
Remember El Nino does not always translate into a weak hurricane year, remember 2004. Charlie, Jeanne, Francis, Ivan not a fun year for Floridians at all.

Exactly! I for one, am not looking forward to an El Nino year.
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latest cen carb. surface
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
Convection is building near the surface low.

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Remember El Nino does not always translate into a weak hurricane year, remember 2004. Charlie, Jeanne, Francis, Ivan not a fun year for Floridians at all.
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988. IKE
12Z GFS is coming in line on a 2 day track.....

at 54 hours....

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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
05 was a freakish year based on a neutral year, High SST's, and a strong Bermuda High


2008 was almost as freakish and it was also a neutral years.
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Okay,thanx for the info. Ill bookmark the site and add it to my blog here.


Weathermen and D-Day
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Tropical Update
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983. IKE
Charleston,SC morning discussion...long term...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL INDUCE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT TUESDAY AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO HOLD IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
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My blog update on the forecasted set-up
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Freelance,I notice your site is a Paid site...

..yer not gonna get many takers here on a National subject of such ,importance like that.
How bout posting a Open free Link to it here?
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980. 7544
imo a elnino year is very upredictable where anything can happen so i would not call this one a dead year just wait remember it only takes one and we are almost certin there will be for examlpe andrew in a elnino year stay tuned
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also speaking of action i think we are watching some action right now
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Quoting Patrap:

Atlantic Tropical Basin WV Loop,Wide view


Er, ah, I guess I should have said Florgia :)
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976. IKE
Convection seems to be popping near the spin of the coc.
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Dead?..no action?

Id say the 1500 Homes flooded in Volusia County Fla,may Beg to differ with that statement poster.

I'd stay away from the Bowls of Ignorance for Breakfast too.

Try a Banana instead..brain food.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.