El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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1125. Patrap
Expect heavy rain Saturday afternoon in Miami-Dade, Broward

By DOUGLAS HANKS, PERRY STEIN AND JENNIFER LEBOVICH
jlebovich@MiamiHerald.com

Don't let the Saturday morning sun fool you.

Meteorologists say South Florida is in for a wet one this afternoon.

''If people have got plans to do anything, do it earlier rather than later,'' advised Barry Baxter, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami.

There's a 70 percent chance of rain in Miami-Dade and Broward starting after noon.

''It's going to be wet this afternoon and some storms could be strong or even close to severe,'' he said.

Those storms, which could pack hail and winds, are expected to follow similar paths of yesterday's showers.

On Friday, afternoon downpours dumped more than nine inches over Miami Beach in only five hours, causing flooding, power outages and massive traffic jams during rush hour.

At Miami International Airport, a little more than an inch of rain fell; at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International about a ½ an inch.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Levi32:


Hey, honestly, we hear you, but let us have fun...this is what we do. We can only discuss the short-term for so long before we run out of stuff to say.


:)
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
Quoting Levi32:


Hey, honestly, we hear you, but let us have fun...this is what we do. We can only discuss the short-term for so long before we run out of stuff to say.

Amen, plus, the GFS is not the only model...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scottsvb:


exactly...a weak low!


Oh thought you meant the GFS is the only model support of any low, however the GFS has done well with 90L, except the warm core/cold core situation. It's just something to watch for right now, we'll worry about track and strength when or if it forms.
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1121. Levi32
Quoting scottsvb:
Everyone is still alittle overexcited about something that hasnt developed yet and only has the GFS in support.....we dont know what we will have in a few days..it could be just a broad circulation in the western carribean..and disorganized T-Storms.. I been stating that for 4 days now.

1. It needs to develop

2. It needs model(s) support

3. It needs consistancy

Finally everyone is guessing on a movement after 120hrs and up to 180hrs.. and on strength...the pattern will set up better aloft in a week...but there might not be really anything there.

Stay focused on the short term forecast...thats what us Mets do...and do the 3 steps listed above. Everything else is a guess!


Hey, honestly, we hear you, and we agree, but let us have fun...this is what we do. We can only discuss the short-term for so long before we run out of stuff to say.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
Quoting Patrap:
I hope dem Miami Levee's Hold..


We call em canals.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1119. Patrap
I hope dem Miami Levee's Hold..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Speaking of Miami, theres some thunderstorms developing right over Miami now.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
The GFS is not the only model support, NOGAPS has a weak low and the EURO has a weak low.


exactly...a weak low!
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
Vortex, whats the latest from the Texas Tech Team? I know that they were talking about the chances today, I know they caught a wedge shaped tornado yesterday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The GFS is not the only model support, NOGAPS has a weak low and the EURO has a weak low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
The long-range GFS has problems handling the cyclone and the baroclinic energy. Not surprising considering the low-resolution.


They are working on an increased resolution GFS, T574 (~23KM). Issues though Test of T574 64 levels Eulerian (Powerpoint)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
stormchaser, go to Nbc6's website. Story about the storm yesterday, dealing with the health concerns now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Everyone is still alittle overexcited about something that hasnt developed yet and only has the GFS in support.....we dont know what we will have in a few days..it could be just a broad circulation in the western carribean..and disorganized T-Storms.. I been stating that for 4 days now.

1. It needs to develop

2. It needs model(s) support

3. It needs consistancy

Finally everyone is guessing on a movement after 120hrs and up to 180hrs.. and on strength...the pattern will set up better aloft in a week...but there might not be really anything there.

Stay focused on the short term forecast...thats what us Mets do...and do the 3 steps listed above. Everything else is a guess!
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
1110. Walshy
Weather Underground Cam

Link


Snow starting to stick at this persons house in Montana.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Very good post Taz...




thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
Quoting 7544:
hmm now it takes right to south fla stay tuned

Link


shshsh! All hell could break loose.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1106. Patrap
Very good post Taz...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting hurricane23:
Mike this is for you...Unnamed tropicalstorm in south beach.

"


Wow! Thats a really impressive thunderstorm. Those winds had to be near 75mph! Thanks for sharing that Adrian!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
modes will jump a round lot one day it may say FL other day LA or other day AL or CA so you this nevere no where it will go this have to wait and see i wish they make it 93L so we can see some mode runs for it and we can get a better thinking on what it will do
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
Sombre note...

Bodies and debris have been found from the Air France plane which went missing over the Atlantic last Monday, the Brazilian air force has said.

More details coming.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Wow I am watching the tropical update right this second and they haven't mentioned the convection at all near the southwest Carib.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
1101. Cotillion
4:52 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
Quoting pottery:
Yeah, good going, The West Indies.
Holland beat England. The WI beat the Aussies.
What in the wold is going on ??


I know.. crazy. That said, last Twenty20 the Aussies lost to Zimbabwe if I recall right...

It's all about the Ashes this summer though.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1100. Tazmanian
4:51 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
FL i trad you the rain and i give you the CA sun ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
1099. Cavin Rawlins
4:51 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
Quoting pottery:
Yeah, good going, The West Indies.
Holland beat England. The WI beat the Aussies.
What in the wold is going on ??


lol...Not a sell-out but if Australia is playing that's who I'm backing, and they happening to be playing West Indies to do. West Indies stepped up
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1098. StormFreakyisher
4:51 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
Whoa 7544 repeat that?!
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
1096. Drakoen
4:50 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
The long-range GFS has problems handling the cyclone and the baroclinic energy. Not surprising considering the low-resolution.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30619
1095. StormFreakyisher
4:50 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
Look at this beautiful day with all these boaters until you look behind the Boca Resort tower.....thunderstorms.These boaters don't know whats going to get them here in Boca.Link
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
1094. Patrap
4:49 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
..seems the V95 guy has poupon up its rear..LOL

and ZERO comments still.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1093. pottery
4:49 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
Yeah, good going, The West Indies.
Holland beat England. The WI beat the Aussies.
What in the wold is going on ??
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24674
1092. 7544
4:48 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
hmm now it takes right to south fla stay tuned

Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
1091. futuremet
4:48 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
Quoting Levi32:


Mmm not quite lol. The GFS is much more rapid in its development of the low. The European moves a weak low slowly through the NW Caribbean in 6-10 days.


Well somewhat, the track is quite analogous though.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
1089. weatherwatcher12
4:47 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


By 7 wickets...lol

lol
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
1088. pottery
4:48 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
Hello. From 11n 61w.
Things are looking up, and a strong probability for an inch of rain here on Sunday ( see 456's blog for more).
Let's hope it happens, 'cos this place is as dry as a week old dog's turd
on the driveway.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24674
1087. weatherwatcher12
4:47 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
Quoting Vortex95:
1079. I don't think i'll fully understand cricket, but hey!!! it influenced the creation of baseball lol.

lol
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
1086. Patrap
4:46 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
And the credits this week are 3..!



Congratulations..!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1085. Cavin Rawlins
4:46 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
The west Indies won there cricket match. :)


By 7 wickets...lol
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1084. Tazmanian
4:46 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
its vary rare too see snow falling in june in MT
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
1082. Levi32
4:45 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
Quoting Drakoen:


I agree. The GFS is much more aggressive than the ECMWF. I like the conservative nature of the ECMWF than the aggressive GFS.


I do as well. In 6-10 days the environment will be much more favorable, and the MJO pulse will be well underway. The CATL tropical wave will also be in the area.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
1080. Patrap
4:44 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
What do they do with the crickets after the Match?

Bake,Steam or Fry?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1079. weatherwatcher12
4:44 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
The west Indies won there cricket match. :)
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
1078. Levi32
4:44 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
Quoting scottsvb:


IKE Remember..each model run changes after 72hrs...and each GFS run has been different after 72hrs... look @ 6Z..had it going to eastern Cuba before a turn west towards the keys...now 12Z never makes it past 81W and moves it towards western tip of Cuba and into the SE GOM.. Next run could have it going into the Yucitan or towards eastern Cuba again and never feeling the trough and out into the Atlantic... 72hrs.. 120hrs if models are inagreement.. after that...forget it like a grain of salt...its fantasy... :)


However, the GFS is finally picking up on a stronger SW Atlantic ridge. Last few runs have stalled out the low near Cuba and turned it west instead of punching straight northward into the Bahamas like it was.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
1077. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
Quoting Patrap:
It my be a Tin foil HAt day here..LOL
already got my tin foil hat on pat with a tin foil defector on stand by

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
1076. IKE
4:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
Quoting scottsvb:


IKE Remember..each model run changes after 72hrs...and each GFS run has been different after 72hrs... look @ 6Z..had it going to eastern Cuba before a turn west towards the keys...now 12Z never makes it past 81W and moves it towards western tip of Cuba and into the SE GOM.. Next run could have it going into the Yucitan or towards eastern Cuba again and never feeling the trough and out into the Atlantic... 72hrs.. 120hrs if models are inagreement.. after that...forget it like a grain of salt...its fantasy... :)


Agree...that's why I said it had a chance...beyond 5 days...too far out.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1075. StormFreakyisher
4:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2009
Uh oh looks like me and the rest of SF is going to get more severe storms today.Link
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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