El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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1175. Levi32
NHC 72-hour forecast surface map. They weaken the tropical wave currently near the islands as it moves south of Hispaniola in 48 hours and take it off the map at 72.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
1173. Drakoen
Quoting clwstmchasr:
The last sentence in number one seems to contradict the point in number 2. If development is not expected why even mention it. Local mets can tell you to expect heavy rainfall

They are not saying that it won't develop. They are saying that development is not expected within the next 48hours.


But they still give it a 30% chance anyways LOL? Usually they would say "Elsewhere, Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the enxt 48 hours"
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29928
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC011-086-061815-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0056.090606T1717Z-090606T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
117 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 112 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
FROM PENNSUCO TO MIRAMAR...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
COOPER CITY...
NOVA SOUTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY...
PLANTATION...
HOLLYWOOD...
HALLANDALE...
LAUDERHILL...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

LAT...LON 2597 8012 2586 8055 2631 8029 2626 8010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 241DEG 11KT 2605 8026

$$

GR
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:
Has anyone seen that blob near the Lesser Antillies? Looks a little interesting. Also, looks like the Carribbean is getting active.


Tropical Wave, upper winds too unfavorable
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Invest 93L later today?
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1169. hahaguy
More storms on it's way here.
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Has anyone seen that blob near the Lesser Antillies? Looks a little interesting. Also, looks like the Carribbean is getting active.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1167. Levi32
Quoting pottery:
A nice rotation, at 25n 57w, with no convection associated.
Interesting though.

The area of heavy rains south-east of Trinidad is still building. Looking good.


Yeah that's a nice little upper-level low there lol. It's gonna move off with the sub-tropical jet to the east.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
NOW we have something to look out. Keep tabs on it, await declaration of 93L too later today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:


TPC is always on board lol 24hrs a day 7 days a week.Just cause theres no mention does not mean the current forcaster on duty is not monitering the area.I concur with there view on the situation no immediate threat for development as proximity to land should hamper things for a while.


True
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
because there will be some slow dev this is what i like to call a hanger it will hang around till conditions allow dev and the window opens for that to occur



Also remember now this is up to 48hrs...and even the GFS shows no development within the next 96hrs..only a broad low pressure!
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1610
1162. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting clwstmchasr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS
TIME...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
NNNN


Very interesting that the NHC has jumped onboard already.....

because there will be some slow dev this is what i like to call a hanger it will hang around till conditions allow dev and the window opens for that to occur
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1161. pottery
A nice rotation, at 25n 57w, with no convection associated.
Interesting though.

The area of heavy rains south-east of Trinidad is still building. Looking good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
The last sentence in number one seems to contradict the point in number 2. If development is not expected why even mention it. Local mets can tell you to expect heavy rainfall.


2. is ment for elsewhere in the Atlantic/Carribean/GOM
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1610
Quoting clwstmchasr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS
TIME...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
NNNN


Very interesting that the NHC has jumped onboard already.....



TPC is always on board lol 24hrs a day 7 days a week.Just cause theres no mention does not mean the current forcaster on duty is not monitering the area.I concur with there view on the situation no immediate threat for development as proximity to land should hamper things for a while.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13637
I guess they will perform autopsies on the bodies to find out the exact cause of death. If the cause of death was drowning, not every may of dies from hypoxia.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Point 2 should start off with "Elsewhere."
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1156. Patrap

ESL by LSU
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1155. Levi32
Quoting StormJunkie:
Afternoon all

Levi - I've noticed the same on the GFS. Seems several of the last runs have shown it having a hard time even getting out of the Carib. Much less out to sea. A run yesterday had the feature headed to Mex after a short trip through the Gulf. No telling where it would go if it even develops.

On a side note, are we gonna get the Great GA Land Swirl Revisited? Would not take much of a jump/jog for it to get over a little water and it is forecast to hang out in the same area for quite sometime.


Hmm....you really love that system don't you lol. I should never have mentioned that it was warm-core over the gulf =P

Well it's nearly stacked with the upper cut-off low over north Florida. The GFS has no handle on it whatsoever so I'm not even gonna try to describe what it does with it. I'm gonna be my own model and say that it should drift slowly towards the south or SE for a while, and may split into two pieces with one piece heading down into the Caribbean and the other piece going towards the NE eventually getting picked up by the westerlies.

I won't even let the thought of sub-tropical development east of Florida enter my mind...
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
1153. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:



That was very quick


That's how it should be.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
1152. Drakoen
The last sentence in number one seems to contradict the point in number 2. If development is not expected why even mention it. Local mets can tell you to expect heavy rainfall.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29928
CNN also reported Obama would get us out of this mess.. 9.4% unempolyment highest ever!..okay okay..I wont talk politics!
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1610
CNN is reporting that they recovered 2 male bodies, a laptop, a brief case containing travel documents and they revealed information of a passenger onboard the Air France. It's really taken a sad turn. :(
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1149. Levi32
Quoting StormJunkie:
Afternoon all

Levi - I've noticed the same on the GFS. Seems several of the last runs have shown it having a hard time even getting out of the Carib. Much less out to sea. A run yesterday had the feature headed to Mex after a short trip through the Gulf. No telling where it would go if it even develops.

On a side note, are we gonna get the Great GA Land Swirl Revisited? Would not take much of a jump/jog for it to get over a little water and it is forecast to hang out in the same area for quite sometime.


Hmm....you really love that system don't you lol. I should never have mentioned that it was warm-core over the gulf =P

Well it's nearly stacked with the upper cut-off low over north Florida. The GFS has no handle on it whatsoever so I'm not even gonna try to describe what it does with it. I'm gonna be my own model and say that it should drift slowly towards the south or SE for a while, and may split into two pieces with one piece heading down into the Caribbean and the other piece going towards the NE eventually getting picked up by the westerlies.

I won't even let the thought of sub-tropical development east of Florida enter my thoughts...
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
1147. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting scottsvb:
What makes this sad..is the Bullish CMC shows nadda...... and the UKMET shows...nadda...and the Nogaps shows...almost nadda... This Cold-Core low with a trough coming down into the NW carribean is Enhancing T-Storm activity and bringing a weak low NW from Panama up... when this trough lifts out...will the weak low have enough to get organized is what we are looking for...but if its not defined enough...it could die.. Its like a sick baby!
has anyone told ya yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS
TIME...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
NNNN



That was very quick
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS
TIME...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1141. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What makes this sad..is the Bullish CMC shows nadda...... and the UKMET shows...nadda...and the Nogaps shows...almost nadda... This Cold-Core low with a trough coming down into the NW carribean is Enhancing T-Storm activity and bringing a weak low NW from Panama up... when this trough lifts out...will the weak low have enough to get organized is what we are looking for...but if its not defined enough...it could die.. Its like a sick baby!
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1610
Afternoon all

Levi - I've noticed the same on the GFS. Seems several of the last runs have shown it having a hard time even getting out of the Carib. Much less out to sea. A run yesterday had the feature headed to Mex after a short trip through the Gulf. No telling where it would go if it even develops.

On a side note, are we gonna get the Great GA Land Swirl Revisited? Would not take much of a jump/jog for it to get over a little water and it is forecast to hang out in the same area for quite sometime.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1138. Patrap
12Z GFSO



12z NAM

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1136. Levi32
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Wow I am watching the tropical update right this second and they haven't mentioned the convection at all near the southwest Carib.

This morning Dr. Lyons spoke about it in detail. He showed a 1010 low in the area and commented that is could develop as it lifted northward. Also, he said that whatever system or rain event is there, it would curve NE across Cuba, the Central Bahama's and lift rapidly into the open Atlantic. He suggested that FL would not feel any effects from this storm/rain event.


He must be in the GFS camp....

Don't think the high in the SW Atlantic is going to be quite that weak.

Last several runs of the GFS don't even recurve it anymore.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Actually models are different.

Mostly the NHC uses the GFDL Model along with the GFS for most of its forecasts unless they are a outliner with bad feedback.

The ECMWF along with the GFS after 48hrs is used for guidance.

The NAM is used over NorthAmerica and not for the tropics... but is used for the short-term along with the GFS.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1610
1133. Patrap


Tornado!
This photo was uploaded by: Vortex2

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1132. Levi32
Quoting ltcenter:


Yes, you are correct, but its still the same area shown by GFS, so i thibk something, Tropical Storm or not, will develop


What the models are telling us is that the western Caribbean is going to be more favorable for tropical development in the next 5-15 days. That's all we can say for certain. We have a pulse of activity coming and we should be on our toes being aware of these potential close-to-home developments.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
1131. Drakoen
Calm down scott. It's not even that big of a deal
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29928
Thats why we all wait and see!
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1610
1129. Patrap
ALL models have a role..
All models are insight to what MAY occur.
One isnt better than the other and vice versa,for a reason.

If ya gonna drive with the Models,best to have the Keys and Drivers Manual.


AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS

Bernard N. Meisner
Scientific Services Division
National Weather Service Southern Region
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Quoting scottsvb:


no models show it becoming a Tropical storm besides the GFS..just a couple show a weak area of low pressure.

I think there is a 40% chance of something developing in the next 3-5 days.. but that is a safe bet!


Yes, you are correct, but its still the same area shown by GFS, so i thibk something, Tropical Storm or not, will develop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ltcenter:

Amen, plus, the GFS is not the only model...


no models show it becoming a Tropical storm besides the GFS..just a couple show a weak area of low pressure.

I think there is a 40% chance of something developing in the next 3-5 days.. but that is a safe bet!
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1610
scratch that, the new 12Z NOGAPS dropped most of development, mainly because it makes a very early landfall in Mexico. GFS and EURO are the only models so far.. and NAM but who cares about that model?
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1125. Patrap
Expect heavy rain Saturday afternoon in Miami-Dade, Broward

By DOUGLAS HANKS, PERRY STEIN AND JENNIFER LEBOVICH
jlebovich@MiamiHerald.com

Don't let the Saturday morning sun fool you.

Meteorologists say South Florida is in for a wet one this afternoon.

''If people have got plans to do anything, do it earlier rather than later,'' advised Barry Baxter, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami.

There's a 70 percent chance of rain in Miami-Dade and Broward starting after noon.

''It's going to be wet this afternoon and some storms could be strong or even close to severe,'' he said.

Those storms, which could pack hail and winds, are expected to follow similar paths of yesterday's showers.

On Friday, afternoon downpours dumped more than nine inches over Miami Beach in only five hours, causing flooding, power outages and massive traffic jams during rush hour.

At Miami International Airport, a little more than an inch of rain fell; at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International about a ½ an inch.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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