El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1225 - 1175

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

Quoting Vortex95:
im 32%


Im 24%
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23849
1224. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


Me. Cynical. Never.
Quoting Drakoen:
This says i'm 64% cynical


I rest my case.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I would like a read by those in here that understand what happened in Miami yesterday, as to what chance we have of a repeat of that scenario today?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
So our blob in the Caribbean is right around where Wilma was. Anyone remember what month it was when Wilma formed?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1221. pottery
Thanks Pat. Does'nt bear thinking about for true.
But do you think that a body would float after five days if it started on the surface ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:
The Caribbean blob isn't even that impressive, to be quite honest. Just a blob.


Thats how they all start..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23849
1218. Patrap
Ive had some experience with Bodies in water,and know a lil about explosive decompression at altitude.

If the Airbus broke up catastrophically,many things go awry real fast,in milliseconds.

The people on Board would have become unconscious immediately at that Flight Level.
As for bodies in the water,..after impact,..they usually form a X position thru time as they expand and become bloated and rigid in the heat and saltwater.

Many things can be determined from the articles found as well as the Human remains.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Quoting Levi32:


It is...and it will take a long time for it to develop, if at all, but it does have a nice start with some good turning at the low levels


Sorry I meant, not all that impressive right now. I am anticipating something much bigger within 72 hours or less.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1216. Drakoen
This says i'm 64% cynical
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30080
1215. Levi32
Quoting MrstormX:
The Caribbean blob isn't even that impressive, to be quite honest. Just a blob.


It is...and it will take a long time for it to develop, if at all, but it does have a nice start with some good turning at the low levels:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think whats more impressive is the weather today and yesterday here in south florida. I know that they already have posted warnings for Broward. I expect alot more to be posted later today, it will be interesting to see what if anything mother nature pops up in the way of severe weather today. There were health advisories posted on the storms that hit miami beach yesterday.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
1213. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


Funny how completely out of the blue your cynicism disappears and it seems like your little brother got on your account or something....lol.


Me. Cynical. Never.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30080
Wilma: freak of nature
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1211. Ossqss
Looks like someone was thinking about the Florgia low.

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
1210. Levi32
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Levi, Like I said: Cut down on the coffee and sugar intake. Its what happens when blogges go nuts, when there is nothing around.


Except that we just GOT something to watch.

But yeah.....I don't drink coffee much and now I'm even more glad that I don't lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Caribbean blob isn't even that impressive, to be quite honest. Just a blob.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1208. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


latest ir sat image
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
Levi, Like I said: Cut down on the coffee and sugar intake. Its what happens when blogges go nuts, when there is nothing around.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
1206. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
Wilma needs to work on her satellite presentation:


Funny how completely out of the blue your cynicism disappears and it seems like your little brother got on your account or something....lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1205. Drakoen
Wilma needs to work on her satellite presentation:
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30080
1204. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:
So, tropics are active. Invest 93L will become TD-01 probably by 11 tonight or 5 tomorrow morning. Anna, by either 11 tomorrow morning or 5 tomorrow even. Then Bill is headin his way sometime next weekend.
well unless we have 2 of every num it will never be depression 1 thats already been done we go to 2 from here
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
Tropical Depression 1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Did you just start tracking the tropics today? TD 1 was a couple of weeks ago. And where is it "official" we have 93L.


Sorry my error, meant to TD-02. TD-01 was some low that got into the Cold Atlantic Waters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1201. Drakoen
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30080
If it forms it would be TD 2
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1199. Levi32
Quoting MrstormX:
Has the navy declared this 93L or is this just a NHC thing?


I believe whenever something is mentioned in the TWO it usually becomes an invest, but if it is it will take time for the Navy site and SSD site to put it up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:
So, tropics are active. Invest 93L will become TD-01 probably by 11 tonight or 5 tomorrow morning. Anna, by either 11 tomorrow morning or 5 tomorrow even. Then Bill is headin his way sometime next weekend.


Did you just start tracking the tropics today? TD 1 was a couple of weeks ago. And where is it "official" we have 93L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1197. Levi32
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:
So, tropics are active. Invest 93L will become TD-01 probably by 11 tonight or 5 tomorrow morning. Anna, by either 11 tomorrow morning or 5 tomorrow even. Then Bill is headin his way sometime next weekend.


You can't be serious...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lol, so this is what happens when bloggers go nuts.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
1195. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
It's amazing what some people would say for a little attention. School's Monday so he should be gone by Monday.
just a little drama queen
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
Has the navy declared this 93L or is this just a NHC thing?
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
It's amazing what some people would say for a little attention. School's Monday so he should be gone by Monday.


Its called a joke.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1192. pottery
A question --
The bodies found today from the aircraft that went down on Monday (5 days ago).
Not to sound macabre or anything, but it seems to me a long time for bodies to float. Initially, bodies sink, and float only when decomposition starts, and gasses are released into the body cavity.
If the bodies were inside the aircraft when it hit water, they would have gone down to 12,000 feet. Where the water temps are pretty cold. Delaying decomposition.
If the bodies were thrown from the aircraft before or during impact, they would sink (how deep, I'm not sure), then float as above.
But in any case, 5 days seems a long time, to me, for a body to float, before sinking forever.

Anyone have any knowledge on this ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1191. Drakoen
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:
So, tropics are active. Invest 93L will become TD-01 probably by 11 tonight or 5 tomorrow morning. Anna, by either 11 tomorrow morning or 5 tomorrow even. Then Bill is headin his way sometime next weekend.


Are you serious?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30080
So, tropics are active. Invest 93L will become TD-01 probably by 11 tonight or 5 tomorrow morning. Anna, by either 11 tomorrow morning or 5 tomorrow even. Then Bill is headin his way sometime next weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Hmm....you really love that system don't you lol. I should never have mentioned that it was warm-core over the gulf =P

Well it's nearly stacked with the upper cut-off low over north Florida. The GFS has no handle on it whatsoever so I'm not even gonna try to describe what it does with it. I'm gonna be my own model and say that it should drift slowly towards the south or SE for a while, and may split into two pieces with one piece heading down into the Caribbean and the other piece going towards the NE eventually getting picked up by the westerlies.

I won't even let the thought of sub-tropical development east of Florida enter my mind...


In response to 1182...Levi just answered that for us...or not... :~)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1188. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
1187. Drakoen
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Okay Drak, ease up on the coffee and sugar...


Bring me my Cat 5 800mb 300mph now.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30080
1186. Levi32
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:


Yeah it is, what are the chances of a TD formin wit the low that is sittin off the coast of SC and Georgia?


For one thing it's not off the coast it's over northern Florida/southern Georgia. I don't think it has much of a chance at all. Too much dry air and high surface pressures building in from the east. Anything would be sub-tropical but I don't think it's worth thinking about.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1184. Drakoen
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:


Yeah it is, what are the chances of a TD formin wit the low that is sittin off the coast of SC and Georgia?


I'm not even thinking about that.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30080
Okay Drak, ease up on the coffee and sugar...
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
Quoting Drakoen:
OMG!?!?!? It's banding guys!!??!?!!! Time for the pinhole eye:


Yeah it is, what are the chances of a TD formin wit the low that is sittin off the coast of SC and Georgia?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1180. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
OMG!?!?!? It's banding guys!!??!?!!! Time for the pinhole eye:


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1179. Drakoen
OMG!?!?!? It's banding guys!!??!?!!! Time for the pinhole eye:
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30080
here we go again, repeat #2 of yesterday. just lovely.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
1177. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
NOW we have something to look out. Keep tabs on it, await declaration of 93L too later today.
i figure if area continues to produce areas of perturb weather for next 12 to 24 hrs we will get our INV/93L proable before noon or just after noon on sunday

wait watch see mode activated
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
1176. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


But they still give it a 30% chance anyways LOL? Usually they would say "Elsewhere, Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the enxt 48 hours"


Hey, we've been talking about how the NHC isn't perfect lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1175. Levi32
NHC 72-hour forecast surface map. They weaken the tropical wave currently near the islands as it moves south of Hispaniola in 48 hours and take it off the map at 72.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1225 - 1175

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
66 °F
Partly Cloudy