El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting presslord:
Stormjunkie...You do know what STD stands for, right?


Sub Tropical Depression!!?!?! :)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24193
Stop it Pat, you may cause a riot in here. lol
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Quoting presslord:
Stormjunkie...You do know what STD stands for, right?


Huh ¿~)
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1269. Patrap
My God..its ROTATING............!

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Quoting StormJunkie:
And to top it off, no one wants to talk about potential STDs in Fla...

Uh oh.
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1267. Drakoen
Quoting presslord:
Stormjunkie...You do know what STD stands for, right?


LOL!!!

We are chalk full of 'em
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
Stormjunkie...You do know what STD stands for, right?
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Something to look at if your bored.

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1264. Patrap
As the Sun heats the atmosphere,in the afternoon,pressure Falls are common,and expected.

Especially over H20
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And to top it off, no one wants to talk about potential STDs in Fla...
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1261. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


I wish I knew....

I'm out till later.


LOL, but today is quite dandy, bud, sir. Don't leave us Mr. Levi.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
Quoting MrstormX:
Closest Buoy to the caribbean storm is recording a slight pressure drop, but really not much.

Link

Its not even near the core of the storm, anyways but something to look at.


Check out the 5 day plot- Link

Its part of the diurnal cycle there.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1259. pottery
you all have forgotten Potts Theorem # 1, already?
The level of angst and dis-harmony on the Blog is directly and proportionately related to the level of cyclonic activity in the Tropical Atlantic and surrounding areas.
Or something like that, anyway.
We never did come up with Theorem # 2.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1258. hahaguy
Does anyone know a site that has a archive of the rainy season from 2004?
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1257. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


Master, Lord, Levi, what's wrong, bud, sir, friend, companion?


I wish I knew....

I'm out till later.
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1256. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
drak is being an arse today nothin new once an arse always an arse
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1255. Patrap
Weathermen and D-Day June 6, 1944
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Closest Buoy to the caribbean storm is recording a slight pressure drop, but really not much.

Link

Its not even near the core of the storm, anyways but something to look at.
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1253. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


You'll find out very quickly lol.


Master, Lord, Levi, what's wrong, bud, sir, friend, companion?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
Some of you guys are so weird. LOL
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
...No rapid scan on the Carib, long time til next model runs come out, and then it is only the 18z at that, no good buoys...Data withdrawals can be harsh on the blogosphere...
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1250. Patrap
Its kinda like Baseball,,..opening week Jitters and twitters
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1249. Levi32
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Why, what's wrong? I just recently logged onto here.


You'll find out very quickly lol.
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1248. Ossqss
Quoting Levi32:


What is with everybody today?


A common disorder -- Blobulitis Interuptus
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Quoting naplesdreamer28:
So our blob in the Caribbean is right around where Wilma was. Anyone remember what month it was when Wilma formed?
If you check the NHC website they have seasons archive. Wilma was Oct 16-25 2005.
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1243. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


What is with everybody today?


Jeewilickers, Levi, bud, sir, everyone is fine.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
Great JFV is back.
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Got up on the wrong side of the bed this morning!
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1239. Levi32
Quoting WeatherStudent:



Good afternoon all! Never, ever, judge a book by its cover, alright bud? One would think that you would know better by now, gosh.


What is with everybody today?
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Geez, quarrelsome lot today.

Hi Plywood - we just missed the last group of thunderstorms, went to our north.
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1237. Patrap
Many Naval assets along with the submersibles are en-route to the area,and if were Lucky and the equipment works well,there is a chance,although slim,that the Ping will be heard and the FDR and CVR will be found.

But I give the odds ,maybe 15 %.
Very Mountainous Floor in that area.
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1236. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Gotta love your sarcasm Drak. Its so developed that half the people on here dont even pick it up. LOL


LOL
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
Quoting Drakoen:


Almost as good as me.


Gotta love your sarcasm Drak. Its so developed that half the people on here dont even pick it up. Gotta work on mine though LOL
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basically during the Marlins game, great....
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1233. Levi32
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
I would like a read by those in here that understand what happened in Miami yesterday, as to what chance we have of a repeat of that scenario today?


There's definitely a chance for some severe t-storms there. You've got the upper low over north Florida bringing in cold temperatures aloft which will increase the instability of the atmosphere. Tornado threat is minimal-to-none though. There's already some storms firing near Miami:

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1231. Patrap
Some Post K Bodies were found 19 Days later,...as I described.

But if the fuselage stayed intact,..most went down with it into the depths ,where the cold and pressures will delay decomp and maybe a submersible will find them.
I dont think many more Human remains will be found...like these two were.

Being males,they may have been kept afloat by some Lightweight debris as a seat or other floating debris.
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1229. Ossqss
Quoting Patrap:
Ive had some experience with Bodies in water,and know a lil about explosive decompression at altitude.

If the Airbus broke up catastrophically,many things go awry real fast,in milliseconds.

The people on Board would have become unconscious immediately at that Flight Level.
As for bodies in the water,..after impact,..they usually form a X position thru time as they expand and become bloated and rigid in the heat and saltwater.

Many things can be determined from the articles found as well as the Human remains.


Patrap, due to lack of debris initially, I believe it nosed down in. Much more detail is coming out.

They do have many assets on site and hopefully the pinger stayed with the boxes.
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1228. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
56% cynical.


Almost as good as me.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
1227. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


I rest my case.


Sarcasm. I Rest my case.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
56% cynical. It also says im a realist so im fine with that.
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Quoting Vortex95:
im 32%


Im 24%
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24193

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.