El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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1324. Ossqss
Hummmm,

Rule of thumb #1, If you don't give someone the power to bother you they can't !

L8R (ª¿º)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Something fun to watch at the very least Levi...
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1322. Levi32
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF


Thanks Ike. I like the Euro's slow development of the system in the 5-8 day time frame.
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1321. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


Your face.


What if I put a mask on?!?!?!? Then it can't find me. I'll hide under my bed. I can play manhunt with it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Nasty thunderstorm forming NWW of west palm beach area, i just got put under a severe thunderstorm warning.


Yup. Jupiter and Palm Beach Gardens are getting hammered.

Nothing in Lake Worth. :(
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1319. Patrap
Ty hydrus..it was my pleasure to create a Blog entry that many would find informative and with a Lil insight from someone who was there.
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1318. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF


That looks dreadful. Should I prepare for another Super Typhoon Tip stalling over my house.
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1317. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


OMG!!!! 2 cyclones Lord Levi?!?!?!?! Where's it gonna hit?!?!?!?!?!?


Your face.
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1316. Patrap
Serious Blog Problem

Dat guy was "seriously" High.

LOL
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Nasty thunderstorm forming NWW of west palm beach area, i just got put under a severe thunderstorm warning.
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1314. IKE
12Z ECMWF
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1313. hydrus
PATRAP
Quoting Patrap:
Weathermen and D-Day June 6, 1944
Thanks for theD-Day post,very moving.Durning is sure getting up there in years.Born 1923.
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1310. Ossqss
Serious Blog Problem
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
1308. Levi32
SJ, if you're still here, I'm not dismissing the possibility ;)

I don't think sub-tropical development east of Florida is very likely, but I am keeping my eye on it anyways because sub-tropical things are unpredictable.
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Afternoon SSIG

Will be interesting to see how close it comes to slipping off the coast.
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1306. Patrap
For those going to Volusia County,Fla. with Portlight next week to help gut and clean those 2 homes,.
Make sure you have a current Tetanus Shot,Work boots with steel toes,Gloves..a change of clothes,and plenty of water too.

Also..bring a Lunch.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
A remark of even further reclarification, Hurricane Wilma initiated her lifespan as a mere very insignificant puff of clouds and thunderstorms. No further comments.

Hurricane Wilma was in October...this is June..different conditions....
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1303. Levi32
Quoting presslord:
I'm gonna take a nap....somebody call me if I need to start shuttering up...


Will do, cya later Press.
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1302. Patrap
Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity


The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (°C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Uh oh.


I brought this up about the flordia thingy, and was told that it is not anything to worry about
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I'm gonna take a nap....somebody call me if I need to start shuttering up...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
Quoting Weather456:
This is rather inappropriate and awkward.


Its a Saturday Afternoon.. nothing on TV. No game,
no tropical cyclones on the earth right now, only thing tropically worth mentoning is on Jupiter.
We never have anything to do on a Saturday Afternoon.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
1298. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


I quite agree.


Master Levi is back!!!
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1296. Drakoen
Quoting presslord:
456...actually, you are right...


An ounce of prevention is a pound of cure
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1295. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:
This is rather inappropriate and awkward.


I quite agree.
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1294. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:
This is rather inappropriate and awkward.


Jeewilickers Weather456, you can't light up for .5 seconds. Today is quite dandy, friend, sir, enemy...friend, sir, bud.
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456...actually, you are right...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
1292. Ossqss
Quoting pottery:
Bah ! Everyone knows that an STD is a "silly thought direction".


Surreptitious Tropical Discussion ?
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
1291. Drakoen
Quoting pottery:
Bah ! Everyone knows that an STD is a "silly thought direction".


Exactly my thoughts.
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That Florgia storm

Glad you called yourself on that oss, was funny the first time I read it; but avoided giving you a hard time...

Come to think of it; it's actually sounds like a good name for a...
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1289. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
My God..its ROTATING............!

break out them flashlights and batteries
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This is rather inappropriate and awkward.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1286. pottery
Bah ! Everyone knows that an STD is a "silly thought direction".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Bring the rubber with ya


LOL....someones gonna get a smack on the wrist from the Admin.
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1283. Patrap
Surface Map,D-Day 1944,June 6

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1281. Drakoen
.
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Drak...I'm goin' to Florida with him net week...makes me nervous for him to be tlkin' about potential STD's in Florida...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
1278. Ossqss
1269 That Florgia storm is headin right to the Carolina's.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
1277. Patrap
Team WUBA ,prepare for STD deployment Immediately..

Contact WU-Control for a direct vector.

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1276. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting presslord:
Stormjunkie...You do know what STD stands for, right?
iam sure you are going to tell him press
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Quoting presslord:
Stormjunkie...You do know what STD stands for, right?


Sub Tropical Depression!!?!?! :)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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