El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1375 - 1325

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

NHC put a code yellow over this disturbance finally.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The real question with the Florgia low is IF it can slide off shore at all. Would have a little better shot at development if it managed that.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16427
1372. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:
Wind shear forecasts need to be a little more reasonable



Also RAMDIS has a floater of closup view of the area in the SW Caribbean, and nothing much had change


What's unreasonable about it? That particular depiction is possible if the ULL over northern Florida elongates into a trough that serves to increase wind speeds over the NW Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1371. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Keeper, why did you ban him?
i did nothing he did it to hinself looks like admin works on sat all of his posts been removed and blog handle completly removed i just checked
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wind shear forecasts need to be a little more reasonable



Also RAMDIS has a floater of closup view of the area in the SW Caribbean, and nothing much had change
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1366. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
drak has been replaced with empty space
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1365. Drakoen
Weather456, what happened to us Good buddy ol' pal, sir, master?!?!?!?!?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ossgss to quote John P. McEnroe you can't be serious, can you. You must be joking. I was going to originally post about N Fl. circulation but I see that is well taken care of so never mind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


It would never form if it stayed over Florida. I expect it will make it to the water eventually. I want to see thunderstorms initiating over the water though before I start thinking it will actually amount to something. I hadn't looked at it earlier this morning so I just assumed the models were right in dissipating it.


Agree with you...Just interesting to note that one of the "quiet" sheer areas for the last several weeks, as far as the GOM, has been that little narrow band right along the Northern Gulf coast which allowed the last low, Memorial Day Weekend, to deepen quite a bit at the last minute as it neared land...Well , back to Ben Hur, and let's see if it might keep it's act together as it starts to clear the coast again...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
JAX Forecast Discussion

ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LOW RESIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES. IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT ENCOUNTERS SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ALSO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1358. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Drakoen:


WTF is a Drakster?
a drak in drag
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1357. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SSTs for yesterday



2008

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1355. Patrap
I didnt think so Levi

LOL..as that was NOLA Humor,..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1354. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:


I can't see the blogger's posts until you quoted it there but I've learned, I don't really care because life goes on.


I thought we were best friends :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lol SSIG...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16427
1352. Levi32
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Maybe I spoke too soon earlier; that is quite a sight to see at is breaks off from the trof...Wouldn't that be something if something came to pass from this circulation (at this time of the year, and, over land)...We'we seen weirder things I suppose..


It would never form if it stayed over Florida. I expect it will make it to the water eventually. I want to see thunderstorms initiating over the water though before I start thinking it will actually amount to something. I hadn't looked at it earlier this morning so I just assumed the models were right in dissipating it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1351. Drakoen
Mr Levi are you getting annoyed by my JFV-like attitude, bud???? I'll promise to play nice from now on. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh no, it's now going to S FL. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


You better leave 456 alone, you already got him banned and you are causing more trouble.


I can't see the blogger's posts until you quoted it there but I've learned, I don't really care because life goes on.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1348. Levi32
Quoting Patrap:
Is there a NHC POD for The HH for the Florgia Invest?


No recons scheduled Pat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1346. Patrap
Is there a NHC POD for The HH for the Florgia Invest?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
I'd like to see some thunderstorms fire over the water. I don't mean moving over the water, I mean initiating there.



Maybe I spoke too soon earlier; that is quite a sight to see at is breaks off from the trof...Wouldn't that be something if something came to pass from this circulation (at this time of the year, and, over land)...We'we seen weirder things I suppose..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
I'd like to see some thunderstorms fire over the water. I don't mean moving over the water, I mean initiating there.



Maybe I spoke too soon earlier; that is quite a sight to see at is breaks off from the trof...Wouldn't that be something if something came to pass from this circulation (at this time of the year, and, over land)...We'we seen weirder things I suppose..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1343. Drakoen
Quoting WeatherStudent:


It's rotating, isn't it, Drakster?


WTF is a Drakster?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1342. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1341. Drakoen
Those are some pugnacious rotating flock of seagulls Mr. Levi.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1339. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This seems pretty close to the center of the Florga low...If that pressure readin is right, then we are all done for...And notice the variance from yesterday's low pressure reading...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16427
1336. Patrap
NexSat ,Se Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1335. Levi32
I'd like to see some thunderstorms fire over the water. I don't mean moving over the water, I mean initiating there.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1334. Drakoen
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Okay take a look at this.



The blue circle is our main blob, looks to be tryin to develop pretty quick..

The red circle is a big blob. It has been gettin bigger and bigger all day long.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1330. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Jacksonville, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 3.35 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1329. Drakoen
Those are mighty powerful echo tops Mr. Patrap. Be safe all!?!?!?!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1328. Patrap
Echo Tops to 52K..here


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1327. Levi32
Low's pressure is pretty high now, probably 1012mb.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Aternoon; nice to see some humor on here on a quiet Sat afternoon (nothing special on TV and watching Ben Hur with kids on AMC for the 154th time in my life)............WW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1375 - 1325

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
76 °F
Mostly Cloudy