El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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1425. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


LOL


Lay off that stuff Drak......


Now, back to the tropics.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Promise?



LOL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Good afternoon everyone

Just got back into town from a business trip and see that things are getting interesting in the SW Caribbean.

There is rotation in the mid levels near 13N 80W and shear is falling. High pressure is trying to build aloft as evidenced by the fanning out of the cloud field. Conditions seem to be slowly coming together for some form of development there.

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1422. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
well it is a stange place today
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Quoting Vortex95:
THE SW CARRIBEAN BLOB WILL BECOME TS ANA, AND MAKE LAND FALL IN PASS CHRISTIAN MISSISSIPPI APPROXATLY 68 mph WITH 74 MPH GUSTS IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR I SHALL NEVER MAKE A FORCAST AGAIN!!!! FROM MY BASEMENT HEADQUATERS I MUST MAKE MY LEAVE MOMMIES CALLING ME TO TAKE HER TO THE PIGGLY WIGGLY!!!


Promise?
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1420. Drakoen
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1419. Drakoen
Quoting Vortex95:
I think Drak tried somthing for the first time.


LOL
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Marine Weather Discussion

Computer models have come into much better agreement regarding the development of a broad area of low pres over the sw caribbean. Convection has started to increase over the area... And a qscat pass from around 1030 utc this morning...although near the edge of the swath...showed that winds are beginning to veer to the se between 70w and 76w. For this forecast package...will continue with the trend of broad low pressure forming over the w caribbean late mon through thu with winds in the 20 kt range and max seas of up to 9 ft over the nw caribbean. Will closely monitor future model guidance to see if there appears to a more definitive consensus as to any possible upcoming possible development with this feature as well as its future track...particularly since this is a favorable area for tropical cyclone formation during this early portion of the season.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
Ike, seems that way on visible as well. You can really see the shear just to/on the north side of the area. Where as to the south it looks much more relaxed.
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Quoting IKE:
Shear seems to be lifting in the SW Caribbean.....






yea

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Check out my update
www.cyclonezonecz.blogspot.com
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1410. Levi32
Panama spinner headed towards Nicaragua
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1409. IKE
Shear seems to be lifting in the SW Caribbean.....




Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1408. Patrap


wunderground JAX webcam
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
1407. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:
Alot of showers for Trinidad and Venezuela


Don't think showers will get much farther north than that.
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1406. Patrap
Jax Webcams
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Until the shear finally pulls upward away from the Carib. then I will start worrying and watching this low more.
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1403. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Vortex95:
4 u KOTG I guess he is but I still see his posts.
i know that just just having some fun with ws
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1402. Levi32
Quoting Acemmett90:
For those who feel the Floriga Storm can form It part of the Cold front
shown in the picture below


That cold front will be moving on to the east and surface high pressure will build in to replace it, leaving the low over northern Florida blocked off. Same thing basically happens in the upper levels too. That's why it's called a trough-split.
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.
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Alot of showers for Trinidad and Venezuela
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Oh please keeper bring him back, Sir,buddy,mister!!! Help wake Presslord.
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1397. Levi32
Quoting Vortex95:
1384. As there should be. It will have its peaks and valleys over the next few days, whether it forms into somthing is a whole other issue. Btw is it an offical invest?


Not yet.
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Updated Maps

Showing some but little convergence

There is also a tight spin



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1395. Levi32
Tropical wave along 59W bringing thunderstorms and heavy rain to countries along the NE coast of South America as it encounters an area of high upper divergence:

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Quoting Vortex95:
1384. As there should be. It will have its peaks and valleys over the next few days, whether it forms into somthing is a whole other issue. Btw is it an offical invest?


Don't think it is a say 93L yet we will have to wait, and find out.
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1379 I just found that out as I came back from the beach thats why.
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1391. surfmom
upwelling would keep the ATlantic waters cool - I believe they had a bit of that this year
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1388. Patrap
From Lowercals Blog..


Blogs / Bad Astronomy
Secular Student Alliance meeting at OSU
Kaguya's jaw-dropping Moon video
submit to reddit . .

Kaguya is a Japanese spacecraft that has been orbiting the Moon since October 2007. It is equipped with several detectors, but also brilliantly, in my opinion ,two HD cameras. The footage below is not a simulation: it's real imagery of the Moon! Make sure you click the HD button, or go to the YouTube page to see this in full resolution.


This next footage is of the crater Antoniadi, and is stunning. Note the lens flares from sunlight entering the camera and reflecting inside.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
1387. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting WeatherStudent:
What, for real, as in an indefinite ban?
can'nt find he's blog and all the post's are gone i figure he is gone as well what ever will you do now bud sir
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1386. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:


The size of the low shear. But that was the 00Z NOGAPS, just one wind shear solution.


Ok I gotcha. It does look a little overdone in the eastern Caribbean, but the western Caribbean looks fine to me, considering that forecast is 5 days out.
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Seems reasonable Levi, it will only be able to feed off of the daytime heating storms for so long. Also seems there is a pretty good wedge of dry air to the E of it. May have a hard time tapping any Atlantic moisture.
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There is some new convection blowing up on the Caribbean blob.
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1383. Levi32
The GFS already initializes it near the turning threshold between cold-core and warm-core, but still cold-biased. It thinks it will be gone by tonight.

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Quoting Levi32:


What's unreasonable about it? That particular depiction is possible if the ULL over northern Florida elongates into a trough that serves to increase wind speeds over the NW Caribbean.


The size of the low shear. But that was the 00Z NOGAPS, just one wind shear solution.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1378. Levi32
Quoting StormJunkie:
The real question with the Florgia low is IF it can slide off shore at all. Would have a little better shot at development if it managed that.


Yeah. The way I see it, it has no chance with baroclinic processes. That's why the models forecast it to die very quickly if it stays cold-core, and it will with its central pressure already above 1012mb. Its only chance is to have these thunderstorms over Florida warm its core, and then move over water.
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1377. Patrap
Latest GOM WV loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
NHC put a code yellow over this disturbance finally.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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